Bull And Bear Markets

Transcript

Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. October 19, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Bull Markets Bear Markets October 19, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets 1-3 4-6 Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bull Markets Figure 1. 36 31 36 T P T +46% 19 months 26 P +58% 28 months T P 31 +173% 41 months +47% 5 months 21 26 21 16 16 S&P 500 BULL MARKETS (ratio scale) 11 11 yardeni.com 6 1921 1922 1923 44 39 34 29 1924 1925 1926 1927 T P +169% 20 months 24 1928 1929 6 1930 44 39 34 29 T +132% 23 months 24 19 19 14 14 9 9 yardeni.com 4 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 25 23 1935 P 21 +69% 15 months 19 1936 1937 1938 T 1939 P +75% 30 months 4 1940 25 23 T +43% 12 months 21 19 17 17 15 15 13 13 11 11 9 9 yardeni.com 7 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 7 1950 Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Page 1 / October 19, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bull Markets Figure 2. 75 69 63 57 P T P +119% 34 months T 75 69 63 57 P +56% 19 months 51 51 45 45 S&P 500 BULL MARKETS (ratio scale) 39 39 33 33 27 27 21 21 yardeni.com 15 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 15 1960 150 150 P T 125 P +39% 14 months +80% 44 months +33% 11 months T 125 +24% 8 months 100 100 75 75 yardeni.com 50 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 140 140 T 130 120 50 1970 +51% 11 months P +33% 14 months +54% 9 months T +31% 12 months +23% 6 months +28% 15 months P T 130 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 yardeni.com 60 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 60 1980 Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Page 2 / October 19, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bull Markets Figure 3. 450 410 370 330 290 P T P T +43% 8 months +229% 60 months 250 P +65% 31 months 330 290 250 S&P 500 BULL MARKETS (ratio scale) 210 450 410 370 210 170 170 130 130 yardeni.com 90 1980 1600 1480 1360 1240 1120 1000 1981 P 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 90 1990 1600 1480 1360 1240 1120 1000 T +166% 43 months 880 880 760 760 640 640 520 520 400 400 yardeni.com 280 1990 2600 2400 2200 2000 1991 P 1992 T 1993 1994 1995 P +102% 84 months T 1996 1997 1998 1999 280 2000 10/19 +224% 90 months 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 yardeni.com 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 600 2018 Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Page 3 / October 19, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bear Markets Figure 4. 55 45 55 T P T P -14.8% 35 25 T P -9.4% 45 -44.3% 35 25 S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale) 15 15 yardeni.com 5 1921 44 39 34 29 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 T 1928 P -83.0% -31.8% 1929 5 1930 T -54.5% -31.9% 44 39 34 29 24 24 19 19 14 14 9 9 yardeni.com 4 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 27 27 P 22 4 1940 -31.9% -34.5% T -13.1% P -26.6% T -20.6% 22 17 17 12 12 yardeni.com 7 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 7 1950 Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Page 4 / October 19, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bear Markets Figure 5. 76 71 66 61 56 51 46 P T P -14.8% T 76 71 66 61 56 51 46 P -20.7% S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale) 41 41 36 36 31 31 26 26 21 21 yardeni.com 16 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 16 1960 150 150 P T P -28.0% 125 -22.2% T -36.1% 125 100 100 75 75 yardeni.com 50 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 140 130 120 50 1970 140 P T P -36.1% T P -48.2% -19.4% T -17.1% 130 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 yardeni.com 60 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 60 1980 Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. Page 5 / October 19, 2017 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull and Bear Markets Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Bear Markets Figure 6. 570 510 450 P T P -17.1% P 570 510 -19.9% 450 T -27.1% -33.5% 390 390 330 330 S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS (ratio scale) 270 270 210 210 150 150 yardeni.com 90 1980 1720 1600 1480 1360 1240 1120 1000 1981 P 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 T -19.9% -19.2% -49.1% 880 90 1990 1720 1600 1480 1360 1240 1120 1000 880 760 760 640 640 520 520 400 400 yardeni.com 280 1990 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1991 P 1992 1993 1994 T 1995 P -49.1% 1996 1997 1998 1999 T -56.8% 280 2000 10/19 -19.4% 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 yardeni.com 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 600 2018 Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation. 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