By Warren Sharp Of Sharpfootballanalysis.com

Transcript

By Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com Forward: About the 2014 Football Preview This is the first football preview publication you’ll read which was not intentionally built. It came about simply based on the significant volume of information I regularly gather and research I perform prior to the start of each football season. I spend my spring and summer preparing for the NFL season. Although I technically am a “handicapper”, its easy to see I’m a square peg in the round hole of sports “touts”. I only provide football information, so that’s the first prime difference. Providing information on football is NOT my full time job (I’m a licensed Professional Engineer). Therefore, unlike 99% of the guys in the field who handicap and sell “picks” daily to generate revenue, I have no desire to involve myself in that game. I only worry about the single sport which I know inside and out, and have the most significant long term edge: football. Secondly, unlike most guys who do “tout” picks, my philosophy is to conduct a long, metric-based, quantitative analysis on each game. If, at the end of the analysis, I find an edge to either a particular team or total vs the posted number, a buy recommendation is the natural conclusion. therefore, I’m less of a “handicapper” and more of a “quantitative analyst”. My background as an engineer gives me the problem solving mindset which applies perfectly to analyzing sports and determining winners. My process involves computer algorithms I’ve written to predict overs and unders, as well as significant time spent each week, on each game, applying metrics to quantify edges and running detailed trend analysis on teams, injuries, situations, etc. For a quantitative analyst like myself, one sport (football) is a full time job if you want to do it right. And I most certainly care about doing it right. Not only do I recommend selections to clients, but I also work for a number of professional betting syndicate groups in Las Vegas. These are gentlemen you must impress. And you must win or they will move on quickly. 2 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Winning is exactly what I’ve done for the 8 years I’ve been operating in this field. In 8 years I’ve ALWAYS produced winning seasons each year, and collectively my record is: •NFL Overall: 928-644 (59%) •NFL Totals: 372-251(60%) •College Totals: 416-315 (57%) On a small enough sample size, I’ve hit 100% on 7 plays for a given week. I’ve had 85% starts to the season over the first several weeks. But on a larger sample size, all percentages revert to the mean. Which is why, when I hit almost 60% in almost 1,500 NFL plays over 8 years, it IS statistically relevant and vastly more impressive than hitting 65% for just 1 season. Doing this for so long, I’ve gone on my share of really hot streaks. Some so strong & consistent they become trends: the last 2 seasons, I’ve hit over 62% for over 350 plays from Thanksgiving to the end of football season, each year. But I’ve also gone on my share of cold streaks. Which is why its vital to accurately track performance in this industry. And here’s a 3rd example of what sets me apart as a quantitative analyst: For every NFL game, immediately after kickoff for every game, I not only post publicly on my results page but I also tweet out on my Twitter handle ( @SharpFootball ) any selection I recommended for the game which is starting. The recommendations are therefore openly transparent. This is key for any serious analyst, as not only do I need to analyze my performance to see what I can do to maximize performance on a daily and weekly basis, but it opens my service up to scrutiny from the world. Any one with access to the internet can follow along with every single win and loss. That added pressure is welcomed by me, because I want to always perform at my peak. So back to this football preview: every single offseason I conduct thorough research. Normally I simply compile this research for myself, and occasionally share portions with key members of these syndicate groups I work for in Las Vegas. I use it to kick start the process of betting NFL Season Win totals, which I’ve done with great success, going 6-2 (75%) each of the last 2 years for solid profit each year. This year, as I was performing my research, a thought occurred to me to simply keep everything very organized and then I could share it easier. That was the foundation for this publication. But this publication is far different from any other publication you would read: In addition to giving you the basics of what you want to know (schedules, spreads, stats) this publication is written from the bettor’s perspective to be digested by you, the bettor. This is why all of the tables and charts are laid out for visual learners, as most people are nowadays. Less: page after page of black and white text, ridiculous trends which won’t even happen this year, and general stats which don’t really translate into reality. More: advanced analytics which truly translate into wins and losses, full color tables and charts sharing information which really matters, and articles which should both educate and stimulate the football portion of your brain. But this is not just a football betting publication. The truth is, using applying quantitative analytics to football will improve your overall knowledge of the game while previewing the season, be it for fantasy football or as a more educated fan. You’re getting a glimpse into the ideas, analysis and features which made it to print from months of research to prepare for the 2014 football season. I’ll know it was well worth it when you use this publication not only to prep for the season, but you grab it during the season to study up or as a reference tool. Good luck this fall! Enjoy the games, always try to learn and progress, and if you want to learn even more from me, get on board with a 2014 package. Table of Contents 1. Forward 2. About Team Capsules & Explanation of Terms 3. Team Article Collection: 1. Optimal Roster Design for Winning in Today’s NFL (9) 2. Building a Quality Roster (15) 3. Most Skilled Units in Detail (16) 4. The Most Dominant NFL Franchises (18) 5. Ranking the Owners (19) 6. Franchise Purchase Prices (20) 7. Lifetime Coaching Tree for Current Head Coaches (21) 8. 2014 NFL Coaching Changes (22) 9. Injuries & Suspensions (24) 10. Arrests (25) 4. 5. 6. 7. NFC NORTH CAPSULE 1. GREEN BAY PACKERS (27) 2. CHICAGO BEARS (32) 3. DETROIT LIONS (37) 4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (41) 2014 Schedule Article Collection 1. Master Schedule Grid (46) 2. Tidbits and Quirks with the 2014 Schedule (48) 3. Summary Schedule by Opponent Division (49) 4. Average Opponent Rest (50) 5. Primetime Game Analysis (51) NFC WEST CAPSULE 1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (54) 2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (59) 3. ARIZONA CARDINALS (63) 4. ST. LOUIS RAMS (67) Quarterback Article Collection: 1. Implications of Inefficient Quarterback Drafting (73) 2. 3. 3 Implications of Paying Market Rate to Re-sign a Franchise Quarterback (76) Is Sam Bradford the Future for the Rams? (82) Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved 8. NFC EAST CAPSULE 1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (85) 2. DALLAS COWBOYS (90) 3. NEW YORK GIANTS (95) 4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (99) 9. Skill Positions Article Collection 1. Top Analysts Say NFL Will Turn to Running the Ball but I Disagree (104) 2. Valuing Wide Receivers too High Can be Problematic (108) 3. Why Drafting a Wide Receiver Early has Significant Risk (110) 4. League Shift – From Running the Ball to Stopping the Pass (111) 10. NFC SOUTH CAPSULE 1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (113) 2. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (117) 3. ATLANTA FALCONS (122) 4. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (126) 11. Team Metric Article Collection 1. Three Year Performance in Close Games (132) 2. Efficiency Analysis : Yards/Point (133) 3. Situational Reliability Since 2011 (135) 4. Average Play Success Rates by Type Since 2012 (136) 15. In Depth Team Analysis Article Collection 1. Advanced Team Depth Charts (184) 2. Passing Team Rankings (186) 3. Offensive Line Team Rankings (187) 4. Receiving Team Rankings (188) 5. Rushing Team Rankings (189) 16. AFC EAST CAPSULE 1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2. MIAMI DOLPHINS (195) 3. NEW YORK JETS (199) 4. BUFFALO BILLS (203) (191) 17. Bonus Analytics Article Collection 1. EDSR (208) 2. A Down Conversion Rate MORE Important than 3rd Down Conversion Rate (209) 3. 30 & In TD % (210) 4. Situational Play Tendencies (212) 18. AFC SOUTH CAPSULE 1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (214) 2. TENNESSEE TITANS (218) 3. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (222) 4. HOUSTON TEXANS (226) 19. Pure Handicapping Article Collection 1. Oddsmaker Opinion: LVH Games of the Year (231) 12. AFC NORTH CAPSULE 1. CINCINNATI BENGALS (138) 2. BALTIMORE RAVENS (143) 3. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (147) 4. CLEVELAND BROWNS (151) 2. 3. 4. 5. 13. 2014 Preseason Article Collection 1. Preseason Schedule Grid (156) 2. Preseason Trend Charts (157) 14. AFC WEST CAPSULE 1. DENVER BRONCOS (167) 2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (171) 3. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (175) 4. OAKLAND RAIDERS (179) 6. 7. How Well do Linemakers Know the Teams (234) 2014 Rule Emphasis Changes: Defensive Pass Penalties and Effect on Scoring (235) Line Value and Importance of Beating the Closing Number (236) Warren Sharp & Bill Krackomberger’s 2014 Super Bowl (237) Ask “Krackman” (241) My Approach to Sharp Football Analysis (242) Forward: About the 2014 Football Preview Transparent Record Keeping All client plays publicly displayed minutes after the start of the game Consistent Results 8 Years, 8 Winning Seasons Emphasizing sound money management, +EV betting opportunities & beating the market Lifetime NFL Playoffs Record: 95-55 (63%) Lifetime Super Bowl Record: 12-5 (71%) Lifetime College Football Record Totals: 415-315 (57%) Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved 1400 Profits 1300 1200 1100 1000 2007: Up 59 Units + $59,600 Lifetime: Up 95 Units + $95,300 900 800 700 600 500 400 2009: Up 3 Units 2008: + $2,900 Up 53 Units Lifetime: + $52,500 Up 151 Units Lifetime: + $150,700 Up 148 Units + $147,800 2013: Up 41 Units + $41,200 2012: Lifetime: Up 49 Units Up 317 Units + $48,700 + $317,100 2011: Lifetime: Up 41 Units Up 275 Units + $41,000 + $275,000 2010: Lifetime: Up 35 Units Up 226 Units + $34,600 + $226,300 Lifetime: Up 185 Units + $185,300 $400,000 $375,000 $350,000 $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 2006: Up 36 Units + $36,600 $125,000 $100,000 300 $75,000 200 $50,000 134 127 2013 120 99 As Recently Seen In: 113 Cumulative Weeks 2012 106 92 2011 85 78 2010 71 64 57 2009 50 43 2008 36 29 8 2007 15 0 2006 22 100 1 Warren Sharp of sharpfootballanalysis.com is an industry pioneer at the forefront of incorporating advanced analytics and metrics into football handicapping after spending years constructing, testing, betting and perfecting computer models written to beat NFL and college football totals. Wins 1500 Cumulative Games Won - Professional Bettor Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger 1600 Line Value Using timed release system, when Warren releases a play to clients, the market reacts giving clients consistent, significant & measurable line value Net Profits Sharp Football Analysis 2006-2013 Results - All Plays (NFL+CFB) 1700 "I noticed Warren was moving some lines around on Wednesdays after he put his stuff up on his site, and he was winning. Instantly, when Warren gives out his play, the books move toward his line. Very rarely will you get a better number than his. He’s a consistent winner." Respected Analysis Numerous betting syndicates acquire plays and Warren’s work is well known by current and former linemakers Lifetime NFL Record Totals: 369-249 (60%) Sides (Personal Plays): 386-271 (59%) $25,000 $0 Profit/Units Assumes Flat Bet 1 Unit/$1K per Game & Inc. -110 Juice "Warren's synopsis on game totals is vastly superior utilizing his mathematical formulas, to any preview I have ever seen. His success is two-fold, beating the closing number by up to 3 pts and winning at a clip needed to secure a hefty profit. Getting in early ensures some fantastic middling opportunities." - Richie Baccellieri, former Director of Race and Sports at Caesars Palace, MGM Grand and The Palms, current expert at The Linemakers A licensed Professional Engineer by trade, Warren now works as a quantitative analyst for multiple professional sports betting syndicates in Las Vegas and has parlayed a long-term winning record into selections for clients which move the Vegas line and beat the closing number with regularity. About the Team Capsules Each team has a 4 page capsule dedicated to discussing that team in a significant level of detail. Grouped by division, each division is color coded for easier navigation of the printed version. The sections are broken down as follows: Future – this section previews an underappreciated player, the toughest stretch during the season, and which person/coach/unit is under the most pressure for each team for 2014. PAGE 2 – BETTING CAPSULE & 2014 LINES PAGE 1 – TEAM OVERVIEW Personnel – dedicated to sharing how the team changed from what you saw in 2013. Covers major (but not all) free agents lost or gained. Addresses positions the team should have focused on during the draft. These positions were my recommendations prior to the draft, as I wrote in a series of draft preview articles for the Linemakers.com website. Then I list the players that they actually did draft. The draft grade is an opinion from a compilation of a variety of draft experts, and is graded where 4.0 = perfect. Last, the biggest post-draft issue highlights where the team still needs improvement, and most of the time it’s a position of need I identified pre-draft which went unfilled. Its interesting to study the positions I identified and see if the teams felt the same and drafted players to fill those voids. You’ll find many of my “need” positions, based on analysis of advanced metrics, were similarly identified by the teams and filled. Advanced Analytics – dedicated to looking BACK on 2013 to see strengths and weaknesses. As you’ll notice, none of the stats relate to these cumulative metrics that many media sites use like total rushing yards allowed or total points allowed. The metrics I value are almost all efficiency based. There are two metrics you may be unfamilar with, both of which I invented myself: EDSR (Early Down Success Rate) and 30 & In TD %. You can jump to the pages which discuss these in more detail to understand the value of these metrics. EDSR can be highly predictive when used correctly. This section also covers strength of schedule from 2013. 5 Results – dedicated to interesting play trends as well as ATS/Totals results from 2013. As you’ll read, I focus a lot of my analysis on play calling and efficiency, far more than any other handicapper out there. Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved 2013 Betting Capsule – every game from 2013 with a myriad of information related to performance Win History and Forecast – prior wins, predicted wins at multiple books, and performance betting on the team’s season wins the last 5 years factor in how often each team faces an opponent off of a bye, and how much rest the opponent has on average when they play. 2014 Coaches – Looks at head coaching records and shares OC and DC as well as information if these coaches are new to the team in 2014. 2014 Roster Analysis – via the grading experts at Pro Football Focus, this is a depth chart for each team which is color coded based on each player’s talent level grade. Obviously subject to player movement and injury. PAGE 4 – FACT SHEET Miscellaneous Stats – projected 2014 strength of schedule, age of starters, number of elite or high quality starters, easiest and hardest stretches in the 2014 season. 2014 Lines – lines for every game in 2014 (except week 17) and average line for the entire season. Division Win Analysis Since 2010 & 2014 lines – visual comparison of the division and performance since 2010 and projections for 2014. PAGE 3 – ANALYIS IN OVERDRIVE Historical Results vs 2014 Opponents – shares the 2014 schedule and lines, and displays the prior meeting with that each opponent (both result and line from prior game), and then calculates the line swing Divisional Dominance Index – a simple algorithm which uses a few inputs to compute the hierarchy of divisional strength since 2010, weighted toward recent performance. Team Records & Trends – A look at several, basic categories for SU, ATS and O/U records over each of the last 4 seasons. Record vs Other Divisions – A basic breakdown of non-divisional games since 2010, looking at SU, ATS & O/U performance Fundamental Success Table: Pass or Rush – Looks at team record by performance. Who NEEDs the QB to play great to win? Who NEEDs the RB to play great to win? Who doesn’t? Its all here. 2014 Offseason Spending Profile – Looks at each team and how they spent money this offseason, and how close to the salary cap they are. Critical & Game Deciding Statistics – There are several critical, non advanced stats which factor into wins and losses, like turnovers, takeaways, sacks, etc. This table breaks them all down. DISCLAIMER 2014 Schedule Grid – one of my favorites, this visually tells you everything you need to know about each team’s schedule. What day the game is played, the start time, the location and more. Average Opponent Rest – certainly its important to No part of this publication may be used without written permission from Sharp Football Analysis, LLC Graded Team Depth Charts appear courtesy of Pro Football Focus.com and are NOT the original work of Sharp Football Analysis, LLC, thus are not subject to the prior disclaimer. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) Personnel - Key Free Agents Lost •WR DeSean Jackson •QB Michael Vick •DE Clifton Geathers •WR Jason Avant •S Patrick Chung •S Colt Anderson •S Kurt Coleman - 2013 Strengths using Advanced Analytics - Draft Positions Needed •1st in offensive yds/pass attempt •1st in offensive rushing efficiency •2nd in offensive efficiency •5th in offensive passing efficiency •6th in offensive EDSR •6th in offensive red zone efficiency •8th in offensive 30 & In TD % •8th in overall team efficiency •TAKEAWAY: The Eagles had one of the best offenses under Chip Kelly in his first season, which was extremely impressive given the criticism he faced entering the season. His team ran the most uptempo offense in the league (fastest plays/second) and won 10 games. •Secondary •Linebacker •Wide Receiver - 2013 Weaknesses using Advanced Analytics - Key Free Agents Gained •OT Andrew Gardner •QB Mark Sanchez •LB Bryan Braman •CB Nolan Carroll - Drafted Players •Marcus Smith OLB (Rd 1) •Jordan Matthews WR (Rd 2) •Josh Huff WR (Rd 3) •Jaylen Watkins CB (Rd 4) •Taylor Hart DE (Rd 5) •Ed Reynolds DB (Rd 5) •Beau Allen DT (Rd 7) -Draft Grade: 19th (2.76/4.00) - Biggest Post-Draft Issue: •Defensive Line 6 Advanced Analytics •31st in offensive pass protection efficiency •28th in offensive yds/point •25th in defensive passing efficiency •24th in defensive EDSR •TAKEAWAY: Amazingly, the Eagles offense could be even better if they improve their pass protection and improve their yds/point. Yds/point can be improved by better red zone production, fewer turnovers and better starting field position. - 2013 Strength of Schedule •The Eagles offense went against the 24th rated defenses. •The Eagles defense faced just the 14th rated opponent's offenses. •TAKEAWAY: The Eagles put up great offensive numbers, but playing in the NFC East doesn’t put them up against very stiff competition. Fortunately, the will be in the NFC East again this year. Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Results - 2013 Play Trends ·The Eagles passed the ball on 53% of their offensive plays which was 27th most in the league. ·In 1 score games, they passed on 52% of offensive plays, also 27th. ·The Eagles were the #1 team in the league rushing on 1st and 10. They gained 5.4 yards per play. ·Remarkably, they were 2nd in the league in passes on 1st and 10, gaining 8.7 yards/play. ·Surprisingly, though, after first down they were just average: ·On 2nd and short they were 17th gaining 1st downs by rushing, and 15th gaining first downs by passing. ·On 3rd and short they were 10th and 27th respectively. ·No team ran more on 3rd and short than the Eagles, who ran it on 86% of their plays. ·TAKEAWAY: The Eagles were tremendous on first down, but they were not so great converting 2nd and shorts to keep the chains moving. On third and short, they shined when running the ball. I would like to see them transfer that up a down to 2nd down and move the sticks a down earlier in 2014. - Interesting ATS/Total results from 2013 ·The Eagles were 6-2 on the road but 4-5 at home. ·The Eagles won the same number of games as a dog of 3+ points (1-1) as they won as a favorite of 5+ points (1-3). ·That’s right, somehow as a favorite of 5+, the Eagles won just 1 of 3 games. ·The Eagles, when FAVORED by 5 or more points, went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Not since 2002 has a team been worse. ·Oddly, as dogs or pick-em, the Eagles went 4-1 SU/ATS. ·When leading at the half by more than 1 point, the Eagles went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS ·In one score games, the Eagles were 4-3. Future - Watch For: •Vinny Curry – Curry had just 1 less QB pressure than defensive ROY Sheldon Richardson, and Curry played 264 FEWER snaps. - Toughest Challenge: •Winning in San Francisco Week 4 - Pressure is on: •DC Bill Davis – this offense was masterful and likely will only get better. Consider how much MORE time Kelly has this offseason than typical in Oregon. But the defense needs to play much better. In the 2 losses attributed to Nick Foles (games he started and finished) the Eagles scored 27 ppg. That should be enough to win but the defense was not up to the task. One of these games was vs the Saints in the playoffs. Eagles Betting Capsule & 2014 Lines Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Betting Capsule SU: ATS: O/U: Date 9/9 9/15 9/19 9/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27 11/3 11/10 11/17 12/1 12/8 12/15 12/22 12/29 1/4 Day Opponent Redskins Monday Sunday Chargers Chiefs Thursday Sunday Broncos Giants Sunday Sunday Buccaneers Sunday Cowboys Sunday Giants Sunday Raiders Sunday Packers Sunday Redskins Sunday Cardinals Sunday Lions Sunday Vikings Sunday Bears Sunday Cowboys Saints Saturday Team Opp Rushes 30.7 28.2 Rush Yds 155.2 109.2 Passes 31.8 41.2 Comp 19.6 25.2 Pass Yds 252.6 287.2 TOs 1.1 1.9 Q1 5.2 3.5 Q2 7.5 6.1 Q3 6.9 6.7 Q4 7.8 7.7 Final 27.4 24.0 Site A H H A A A H H A A H H H A H A H Line 3.5 -7.0 -3.0 10.5 1.0 -2.5 -3.0 -5.5 -0.0 -0.0 -4.5 -3.5 -3.0 -6.5 -3.0 -7.0 -2.5 Total 52 52 50.5 58 55.5 45.5 55.5 49.5 45.5 47 54 48.5 53 53 55.5 53.5 54.5 Q1 12-7 3-3 6-10 3-14 3-7 7-3 0-0 0-6 7-3 7-0 7-0 7-0 0-0 3-7 21-0 3-0 0-0 Q2 14-0 7-10 0-6 10-7 16-0 7-14 0-3 0-6 21-10 3-3 10-0 10-7 0-8 6-10 3-3 14-10 7-6 Q3 7-7 10-7 3-0 0-21 3-14 7-0 0-7 0-0 21-0 17-7 7-0 7-7 6-6 13-10 9-8 0-6 7-14 Q4 0-13 10-13 7-10 7-10 14-0 10-3 3-7 7-3 0-7 0-3 0-16 0-7 28-6 8-21 21-0 7-6 10-6 Final 33-27 30-33 16-26 20-52 36-21 31-20 3-17 7-15 49-20 27-13 24-16 24-21 34-20 30-48 54-11 24-22 24-26 Margin 6 -3 -10 -32 15 11 -14 -8 29 14 8 3 14 -18 43 2 -2 ATS Margin 9.5 -10 -13 -21.5 16 8.5 -17 -13.5 29 14 3.5 -0.5 11 -24.5 40 -5 -4.5 SU W L L L W W L L W W W W W L W W L ATS W L L L W W L L W W W L W L W L L Win History & Forecast 2013 Wins = 10 2012 Wins = 4 2011 Wins = 8 2014 Forecast = 9 O+115 (LVH) 2014 Forecast = 9 O-120 (South Point) Last 5 Years Betting “Over” Season Wins = 3-2 (60%) 7 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Miscellaneous Stats OU O O U O O O U U O U U U O O O U U 2014 Strength Of Schedule: 23rd 2013 Avg Age of Players: 16th oldest (26.7 yrs old) Elite Starters: 3 High Quality Starters: 5 Easiest Month: Oct (STL, NYG, Ari) Hardest Month: Nov (GB, Dal, Hou, Car, Ten) Division Win Analysis Since 2010 & 2014 Lines Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 10-7-0 (3.41, 58.8%) 8-9-0 (1.29, 47.1%) 9-8-0 (-0.53, 52.9%) Eagles Analysis in Overdrive: Historical Results, Depth Chart, Coaches, Division & Schedule 2014 Coaches Historical Results vs 2014 Opponents 2014 Games @ Road (Line) Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Jaguars Eagles Redskins Eagles Rams Giants Eagles Eagles Panthers Eagles Titans Eagles Seahawks Cowboys Eagles +11.0 +2.5 +4.5 +6.0 +6.0 +4.5 +2.0 +0.0 +1.0 +4.5 +7.0 +1.5 -1.0 +3.0 -1.5 Last Meeting @ (Line) Home Home Year Road Eagles Colts Eagles Fortyniners Eagles Eagles Cardinals Texans Eagles Packers Eagles Cowboys Eagles Eagles Redskins 2010 2010 2013 2011 2011 2013 2013 2010 2012 2013 2010 2013 2011 2013 2013 Eagles Colts Redskins Fortyniners Eagles Giants Cardinals Texans Panthers Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Redskins -3.0 +3.0 +4.5 +9.0 -4.5 +5.5 +3.5 +8.0 -3.0 +0.0 +3.0 -7.0 -3.0 -7.0 +4.5 Jaguars Eagles Eagles Eagles Rams Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Packers Titans Cowboys Seahawks Cowboys Eagles Result Line Swing (Team in Favor, Amount) Eagles 28-3 Eagles 26-24 Eagles 24-16 Fortyniners 24-23 Eagles 31-13 Giants 15-7 Eagles 24-21 Eagles 34-24 Panthers 30-22 Eagles 27-13 Titans 37-19 Eagles 24-22 Seahawks 31-14 Eagles 24-22 Eagles 24-16 Eagles, 2 Eagles, 0.5 Same Fortyniners, 9 Rams, 4.5 Giants, 1 Eagles, 0.5 Texans, 2 Eagles, 4 Packers, 4.5 Eagles, 4 Cowboys, 8.5 Seahawks, 10 Cowboys, 10 Eagles, 3 HC = Chip Kelly (10-6, .625 w Phi ) OC = Pat Shurmur DC = Bill Davis Divisional Dominance Index Team Cowboys Eagles Giants Redskins 2013 Division Wins 5 4 3 0 2012 Division Wins 3 1 3 5 2011 Division Wins 2 5 3 2 2010 Division Wins 3 4 3 2 Avg Div Wins Last 4 Years 3.25 3.5 3 2.25 Division Dominance Ranking 3.8 3.7 3.0 1.5 2013 Overall Wins 8 10 7 3 2012 Overall Wins 8 4 9 10 2011 Overall Wins 8 8 13 5 2010 Overall Wins 6 10 10 6 2014 Schedule Grid 8 TEAM DAL NYG PHI WAS 1 SF @DET JAC @HOU SEPTEMBER 2 3 @TEN @STL ARI HOU @IND WAS JAC @PHI Legend: HOME ROAD 4 NO @WAS @SF NYG 5 HOU ATL STL SEA 1PM ET 4PM ET BYE OCTOBER 6 7 @SEA NYG @PHI @DAL NYG BYE @ARI TEN 8 WAS BYE @ARI @DAL 9 ARI IND @HOU @MIN 10 @JAC @SEA CAR BYE SUN Night THU Night SAT Night Thanks Giving MON Night Team Avg Opp Rest Eagles 6.9 Giants 6.5 Redskins 6.3 Cowboys 5.9 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Games With More Rest than Opp 3 2 3 3 NOVEMBER 11 BYE SF @GB TB London Games Where Opp has More Rest 5 4 3 2 12 @NYG DAL TEN @SF 13 PHI @JAC @DAL @IND 14 @CHI @TEN SEA STL DECEMBER 15 16 @PHI IND WAS @STL DAL @WAS @NYG PHI 17 @WAS PHI @NYG DAL SharpFootballAnalysis.com @SharpFootball Games Vs Opp Off of Bye 1 1 1 0 Roster Analysis via ProFootballFocus.com Eagles Fact Sheet Team Records & Trends Average line Average O/U line Straight Up Record Against the Spread Record Over/Under Record ATS as Favorite ATS as Underdog Straight Up Home ATS Home Over/Under Home ATS as Home Favorite ATS as a Home Dog Straight Up Away ATS Away Over/Under Away ATS Away Favorite ATS Away Dog Six Point Teaser Record Seven Point Teaser Record Ten PointTeaser Record 2013 -2.1 51.9 10-6-0 8-8-0 9-7-0 4-7-0 2-1-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 0-0-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 6-2-0 1-2-0 2-1-0 11-6-0 11-6-0 11-5-1 2012 +1.7 45.3 4-12-0 3-13-0 9-7-0 0-6-0 3-7-0 2-6-0 0-8-0 7-1-0 0-4-0 0-4-0 2-6-0 3-5-0 2-6-0 0-2-0 3-3-0 7-9-0 7-8-1 9-7-0 2011 -3.5 46.8 8-8-0 8-8-0 7-8-1 5-7-0 2-1-0 3-5-0 3-5-0 4-4-0 3-4-0 0-1-0 5-3-0 5-3-0 3-4-1 2-3-0 2-0-0 8-7-1 9-7-0 10-5-1 Record vs Other Divisions (Since 2010) 2010 -2.9 44.8 10-6-0 7-9-0 10-5-1 5-7-0 2-2-0 4-4-0 3-5-0 3-4-1 3-4-0 0-1-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 7-1-0 2-3-0 2-1-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 13-2-1 Team Eagles Opponents Division NFC North NFC South NFC West AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West # of Games 11 8 7 4 4 4 4 - ATS - O/U - SU Avg Line Avg Total W - L- P (marg, %win) W - L- P (marg, %over) W - L- P (marg, %over) 3-8-0 (-2.50, 27.3%) -4.3 7-3-1 (5.77, 70.0%) 47.5 4-7-0 (1.82, 36.4%) 3-5-0 (-1.62, 37.5%) 0.2 5-3-0 (2.62, 62.5%) 47.2 3-5-0 (-1.88, 37.5%) 2-5-0 (-7.50, 28.6%) -4.8 3-3-1 (-0.50, 50.0%) 43.8 3-4-0 (-2.71, 42.9%) 2-2-0 (4.50, 50.0%) 0.2 3-1-0 (5.25, 75.0%) 48 2-2-0 (4.25, 50.0%) 1-3-0 (-6.00, 25.0%) -0.8 2-2-0 (-5.25, 50.0%) 44.5 2-2-0 (-5.25, 50.0%) 2-2-0 (2.00, 50.0%) -2.8 3-1-0 (2.12, 75.0%) 46.6 3-1-0 (4.75, 75.0%) 1-3-0 (-3.88, 25.0%) 0.1 3-1-0 (10.00, 75.0%) 51.5 1-3-0 (-4.00, 25.0%) 2014 Fundamental Success Table: Pass or Rush When Passing for OVER 6.5 ypa W> L> % 9 3 75% 3 4 43% 2 4 33% 2 5 29% Team Eagles Redskins Giants Cowboys When Passing for UNDER 6.5 ypa W< L< % 1 3 25% 0 9 0% 5 5 50% 5 3 63% *Over vs Under* Games over .500 8 8 -2 -5 When running for OVER 4.2 ypc W> L> % 5 4 56% 2 7 22% 0 4 0% 3 4 43% When running for UNDER 4.2 ypc W< L< % 5 2 71% 1 6 14% 7 5 58% 5 4 56% *Over vs Under* Games over .500 -2 0 -6 -2 Examines W-L when performing over or under NFL avg: Avg 2014 pass ~ 6.5 ypa; Avg 2014 run ~ 4.2 ypc 2014 Offseason Spending Profile Team WAS PHI NYG DAL Waivers # Waivers 15 17 15 12 (Re-Signed & Extended) Spending Guaranteed 47,140,000 21,105,000 119,900,000 44,095,000 14,295,000 11,936,882 11882 Free Agents # Free Agents 16 9 23 9 Drafted Spending Guaranteed 114,725,000 38,835,000 109,715,000 14,880,000 44,320,000 15,060,000 35,610,000 1,865,000 # Drafted 8/8 7/7 7/7 9/9 Undrafted Free Agents # Spending Guaranteed Spending Guaranteed Undrafted 22,586,758 4,448,363 15 16,837,500 7,500 25,483,427 10,814,935 17 3,077,500 27,500 28,068,179 4,043,758 10 1,537,500 15,000 30,898,501 14,187,594 26 6133000 13000 Total Total Spending Guaranteed (Rank) 201,289,258 3 69,880,863 187,295,927 4 69,997,435 153,615,679 11 39,668,758 63,848,383 30 16,077,476 Total Spending Critical & Game-Deciding Statistics Team Eagles Cowboys Giants Redskins 9 Wins Turnovers Interceptions Fumbles Takeaways 10 8 7 3 19 20 44 34 9 12 29 19 10 8 15 15 31 28 29 25 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Interceptions Taken 19 15 17 16 Fumbles Taken 12 13 12 9 Sacks 37 34 34 36 Sacks Allowed 46 35 40 41 Return TDs 2 6 3 5 Return TDs allowed 6 1 9 7 Penalties 95 102 91 99 Opponent Penalties 106 112 105 83 Pass Avg vs Run Avg 10 8 4 -3 New England Patriots (12-4) Personnel - Key Free Agents Lost •CB Aqib Talib •RB LeGarrette Blount •LB Brandon Spikes •LB Dane Fletcher - Key Free Agents Gained •CB Darrelle Revis •WR Brandon LaFell •S Patrick Chung •CB Brandon Browner - Draft Positions Needed •Tight End •Offensive Line •Run Stoppers - Drafted Players •Dominique Easley DL (Rd 1) •Jimmy Garoppolo QB (Rd 2) •Bryan Stork C (Rd 4) •James White RB (Rd 4) •Cameron Fleming OL (Rd 4) •Jon Halapio G (Rd 6) •Zach Moore DE (Rd 6) •Jemea Thomas CB (Rd 7) •Jeremy Gallon WR (Rd 7) -Draft Grade: 26th (2.26/4.00) - Biggest Post-Draft Issue: •Tight End 10 Advanced Analytics - 2013 Strengths using Advanced Analytics Results - 2013 Play Trends •5th in offensive Early Down Success Rate aka EDSR (this is a metric created exclusively by Warren to measure efficiency) •4th in overall offensive efficiency •5th in overall team efficiency •6th in offensive rushing efficiency •8th in offensive red zone efficiency •8th in defensive 30 & In TD % (another exclusive metric to Warren, this measures a team's ability to prevent opponents from scoring TDs based on average starting field position) •TAKEAWAY: Red zone offense would be even stronger with Rob Gronkowski available all season •The Patriots passed the ball on 59% of their offensive plays which was 17th most in the league. •In 1 score games, they passed on 60% of offensive plays, 9th most. •The Patriots gained 5 ypr on 1st and 10 rushes, 5th best in the league. •The Patriots ran on 79% of their 2nd and short plays, 5th most in the league. •TAKEAWAY: Even with a depleted receiver corps, the Patriots still let Brady lead this team, and were very intelligent in play selection, as to be expected - 2013 Weaknesses using Advanced Analytics - Interesting ATS/Total results from 2013 •27th in defensive rush efficiency •TAKEAWAY: The Patriots defense was not bottom 10 in any other key analytic however they were consistently middle of the road in most defensive analytics. •With a depleted receiver corps and a stronger than expected defense (and facing poor opponent offenses) the Patriots started the season with 4 unders to just 1 over. •By the end of the season, against better competition and with better players available (Gronk, Vereen, etc) the Patriots went over the total in 6 of their last 8 games. •When trailing by 14+ points at halftime, the Patriots actually went 2-0, overcoming 14 and 24 point 1st half deficits. •When leading by more than 3 points at halftime, the Patriots were 7-1. •The Patriots went 7-4 in one score games. - 2013 Strength of Schedule •The Patriots offense went against the 8th rated defenses. •The Patriots defense faced just the 30th rated opponent's offenses. •TAKEAWAY: The Patriots defensive analytics would be much worse but for the poor caliber of opponent's offenses. Playing in-division QBs twice of Geno Smith and whoever Buffalo was fielding at the time was not strong. Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Future - Watch For: •Jamie Collins – Remember, to obtain Collins in 2013, the Patriots used 4 picks to move up to the 2nd round to grab him. Collins improved toward the end of the season and was a force in the postseason. - Toughest Challenge: •Winning in Green Bay in week 13. The last time the Patriots faced the Packers, it was home and Matt Flynn started as Rodgers was injured. We can only assume the Patriots will now have to face Rodgers as a road dog, a role they surprisingly played quite poorly last year, going 1-3 SU/ATS. - Pressure is on: •Bill Belichick. It would be easy to say Tom Brady, but Belichick is largely considered a defensive genius, but his team’s playoffs losses have been when they allowed 27 ppg on avg. With Revis leading the way and Browner to assist, the Patriots defense must step up. Winning the AFC East isn’t the question, but without a better defensive effort, they won’t win another Lombardi in 2014. Patriots Betting Capsule & 2014 Lines New England Patriots 2013 Betting Capsule SU: ATS: O/U: 13-5-0 (6.50, 72.2%) 9-9-0 (2.81, 50.0%) 10-8-0 (1.75, 55.6%) Date 9/8 9/12 9/22 9/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27 11/3 11/18 11/24 12/1 12/8 12/15 12/22 12/29 1/11 1/19 Opponent Day Sunday Bills Thursday Jets Sunday Buccaneers Sunday Falcons Sunday Bengals Sunday Saints Sunday Jets Sunday Dolphins Sunday Steelers Monday Panthers Sunday Broncos Sunday Texans Sunday Browns Sunday Dolphins Sunday Ravens Sunday Bills Saturday Colts Sunday Broncos Rushes 29.6 29.4 Rush Yds 131.3 128.9 Passes 38.4 37.4 Comp 23.2 21.6 Pass Yds 251.6 252.3 TOs 1.1 1.8 Q1 4.9 4.4 Q2 6.3 4.9 Q3 5.2 6.2 Q4 11.4 5.7 Final 27.9 21.4 Site A H H A A H A H H A H A H A A H H A Line -9.5 -11.0 -7.0 2.5 -0.0 -2.0 -3.5 -6.5 -7.0 3.0 1.0 -7.0 -10.0 1.0 -0.0 -8.0 -7.5 5.0 Total 50.5 43 44 49 45.5 50 43.5 46 43.5 46.5 54 48.5 47.5 46 45.5 46.5 51.5 56.5 Q1 10-0 10-3 0-3 0-3 0-0 3-7 14-7 0-7 7-0 0-7 0-17 7-10 0-3 3-0 14-0 6-3 14-7 0-3 Q2 7-14 3-0 17-0 10-7 3-3 14-0 7-3 3-10 17-10 3-3 0-7 0-7 0-3 7-7 3-0 10-0 7-5 3-10 Q3 0-7 0-7 3-0 3-0 0-3 3-10 0-17 17-0 3-14 7-7 21-0 14-7 11-13 0-3 3-0 0-7 8-10 0-7 Q4 6-0 0-0 3-0 17-13 3-7 10-10 6-0 7-0 28-7 10-7 10-7 13-7 16-7 10-14 21-7 18-10 14-0 13-6 Final 23-21 13-10 23-3 30-23 6-13 30-27 27-30 27-17 55-31 20-24 34-31 34-31 27-26 20-24 41-7 34-20 43-22 16-26 Margin 2 3 20 7 -7 3 -3 10 24 -4 3 3 1 -4 34 14 21 -10 ATS Margin -7.5 -8 13 9.5 -7 1 -6.5 3.5 17 -1 4 -4 -9 -3 34 6 13.5 -5 SU W W W W L W L W W L W W W L W W W L ATS L L W W L W L W W L W L L L W W W L Win History & Forecast 2013 Wins = 12 2012 Wins = 12 2011 Wins = 13 Last 5 Years Betting “Over” Season Wins = 3-1-1 (75%) 2014 Forecast = 10.5 O-140 (South Point) 2014 Forecast = 10.5 O-135 (LVH) 11 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Miscellaneous Stats OU U U U O U O O U O U O O O U O O O U 2014 Strength Of Schedule: 19th 2013 Avg Age of Players: 8th oldest (27.1 yrs old) Elite Starters: 3 High Quality Starters: 4 Easiest Month: Oct (NYJ, Buf, Chi, Cin) Hardest Month: Nov (Den, Ind, GB, Det) Division Win Analysis Since 2010 & 2014 Lines Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 Team Opp Patriots Analysis in Overdrive: Historical Results, Depth Chart, Coaches, Division & Schedule 2014 Coaches Historical Results vs 2014 Opponents 2014 Games @ Road (Line) Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 Patriots Patriots Raiders Patriots Bengals Patriots Jets Bears Broncos Patriots Lions Patriots Patriots Dolphins Patriots -3.5 -3.0 +13.0 +1.0 +4.0 -3.5 +7.5 +4.5 +1.0 +1.0 +6.0 +3.5 -1.0 +6.5 -3.0 Home Year Road Dolphins Vikings Patriots Chiefs Patriots Bills Patriots Patriots Patriots Colts Patriots Packers Chargers Patriots Jets 2013 2010 2011 2011 2013 2013 2013 2010 2013 2013 2010 2010 2011 2013 2013 Patriots Vikings Patriots Chiefs Patriots Bills Patriots Patriots Patriots Colts Patriots Packers Chargers Patriots Patriots Last Meeting @ (Line) Home +1.0 +5.5 -6.5 +16.5 +0.0 +8.0 -3.5 -3.0 +5.0 +7.5 -6.5 +13.5 +7.0 +1.0 -3.5 Dolphins Patriots Raiders Patriots Bengals Patriots Jets Bears Broncos Patriots Lions Patriots Patriots Dolphins Jets Result Line Swing (Team in Favor, Amount) Dolphins 24-20 Patriots 28-18 Patriots 31-19 Patriots 34-3 Bengals 13-6 Patriots 34-20 Jets 30-27 Patriots 36-7 Broncos 26-16 Patriots 43-22 Patriots 45-24 Patriots 31-27 Patriots 35-21 Dolphins 24-20 Jets 30-27 Patriots, 4.5 Patriots, 3.5 Patriots, 0.5 Chiefs, 11.5 Bengals, 2 Patriots, 1.5 Jets, 2 Bears, 4.5 Same Colts, 2.5 Lions, 6.5 Packers, 11 Same Patriots, 1.5 Jets, 0.5 HC = Bill Belichick (163-61, .728 w Jets) OC = Josh McDaniels DC = Matt Patrica Divisional Dominance Index Team Patriots Jets Bills Dolphins 2013 Division Wins 4 3 3 2 2012 Division Wins 6 2 2 2 2011 Division Wins 5 3 1 3 2010 Division Wins 5 5 1 2 Avg Div Wins Last 4 Years 5 3.25 1.75 2.25 Division Dominance Ranking 4.7 3.2 2.2 2.2 2013 Overall Wins 13 8 6 8 2012 Overall Wins 13 6 6 7 2011 Overall Wins 15 8 6 6 2010 Overall Wins 14 13 4 7 2014 Schedule Grid 12 TEAM BUF MIA NE NYJ 1 @CHI NE @MIA OAK SEPTEMBER 2 3 MIA SD @BUF KC @MIN OAK @GB CHI Legend: HOME ROAD 4 @HOU @OAK @KC DET 1PM ET 4PM ET 5 @DET BYE CIN @SD BYE OCTOBER 6 7 NE MIN GB @CHI @BUF NYJ DEN @NE 8 @NYJ @JAC CHI BUF 9 BYE SD DEN @KC 10 KC @DET BYE PIT SUN Night THU Night SAT Night Thanks Giving MON Night Team Avg Opp Rest Patriots 6.9 Dolphins 6.7 Bills 6.4 Jets 6.3 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Games With More Rest than Opp 2 2 2 2 NOVEMBER 11 12 @MIA NYJ BUF @DEN @IND DET BYE @BUF London Games Where Opp has More Rest 2 3 2 3 13 CLE @NYJ @GB MIA 14 @DEN BAL @SD @MIN DECEMBER 15 16 GB @OAK @NE MIN MIA @NYJ @TEN NE 17 @NE NYJ BUF @MIA SharpFootballAnalysis.com @SharpFootball Games Vs Opp Off of Bye 2 1 1 0 Roster Analysis via ProFootballFocus.com Patriots Fact Sheet Team Records & Trends Average line Average O/U line Straight Up Record Against the Spread Record Over/Under Record ATS as Favorite ATS as Underdog Straight Up Home ATS Home Over/Under Home ATS as Home Favorite ATS as a Home Dog Straight Up Away ATS Away Over/Under Away ATS Away Favorite ATS Away Dog Six Point Teaser Record Seven Point Teaser Record Ten PointTeaser Record 2013 -4.0 46.8 12-4-0 8-8-0 9-7-0 5-5-0 2-2-0 8-0-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 5-2-0 1-0-0 4-4-0 2-6-0 4-4-0 0-3-0 1-2-0 11-5-0 13-3-0 16-0-0 Record vs Other Divisions (Since 2010) 2012 -7.4 49.1 12-4-0 9-6-1 11-5-0 8-6-1 1-0-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 6-2-0 4-4-0 2011 -7.9 50.2 13-3-0 9-7-0 11-5-0 8-7-0 1-0-0 7-1-0 4-4-0 5-3-0 4-4-0 2010 -4.3 44.6 14-2-0 11 -5-0 13-3-0 9-5-0 2-0-0 8-0-0 5-3-0 7-1-0 5-3-0 6-2-0 5-2-1 5-3-0 4-2-1 1-0-0 11-5-0 12-3-1 14-2-0 6-2-0 5-3-0 6-2-0 4-3-0 1-0-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 6-2-0 4-2-0 2-0-0 13-3-0 13-3-0 14-2-0 Team Patriots Opponents Division AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West # of Games 12 9 9 5 4 4 4 - ATS - O/U - SU Avg Line Avg Total W - L- P (marg, %win) W - L- P (marg, %over) W - L- P (marg, %over) 6-6-0 (0.21, 50.0%) -3.2 7-5-0 (4.04, 58.3%) 46.9 7-5-0 (3.42, 58.3%) 5-4-0 (6.06, 55.6%) -9.3 7-2-0 (9.83, 77.8%) 49.9 9-0-0 (15.33, 100.0%) 8-1-0 (7.56, 88.9%) -5.3 5-4-0 (0.17, 55.6%) 51.4 8-1-0 (12.89, 88.9%) 1-4-0 (-1.80, 20.0%) -6 2-3-0 (-4.10, 40.0%) 51.5 3-2-0 (4.20, 60.0%) 3-1-0 (8.88, 75.0%) -7.1 4-0-0 (10.00, 100.0%) 44 4-0-0 (16.00, 100.0%) 3-1-0 (5.62, 75.0%) -0.9 2-2-0 (-2.38, 50.0%) 47.4 3-1-0 (6.50, 75.0%) 1-3-0 (0.00, 25.0%) -7 3-1-0 (6.38, 75.0%) 46.6 1-3-0 (7.00, 25.0%) 2014 Fundamental Success Table: Pass or Rush When Passing for OVER 6.5 ypa W> L> % 5 2 71% 6 2 75% 4 1 80% 5 1 83% Team Bills Dolphins Patriots Jets When Passing for UNDER 6.5 ypa W< L< % 1 8 11% 2 6 25% 8 3 73% 3 7 30% *Over vs Under* Games over .500 10 8 -2 8 When running for OVER 4.2 ypc W> L> % 2 6 25% 4 3 57% 5 4 56% 5 3 63% When running for UNDER 4.2 ypc *Over vs Under* W< L< % Games over .500 4 4 50% -4 4 5 44% 2 7 0 100% -6 3 5 38% 4 Examines W-L when performing over or under NFL avg: Avg 2014 pass ~ 6.5 ypa; Avg 2014 run ~ 4.2 ypc 2014 Offseason Spending Profile Team MIA BUF NYJ NE Waivers # Waivers 10 17 17 10 (Re-Signed & Extended) Spending Guaranteed 42,335,000 42,727,844 19,655,000 9,395,000 17,955,000 14,625,000 1,350,000 55,000 Free Agents # Free Agents 12 8 12 14 Drafted Spending Guaranteed 96,285,000 55,995,000 78,635,000 64,465,000 48,315,000 17,500,000 32,465,000 24,940,000 # Drafted 7/8 7/7 12/12 9/9 Spending Guaranteed 23,935,069 37,424,988 37,620,220 27,867,523 10,207,366 24,233,674 13,040,877 8,531,431 Undrafted Free Agents # Spending Guaranteed Undrafted 25 2,300,000 45,000 12 11 20 13822000 332000 Total Spending 164,855,069 136,147,832 135,910,220 115,549,523 Total Total Spending Guaranteed (Rank) 7 76,522,366 15 56,358,674 16 46,855,877 23 33,858,431 Critical & Game-Deciding Statistics Team Patriots Dolphins Jets Bills 13 Wins Turnovers Interceptions Fumbles Takeaways 12 8 8 6 20 26 29 27 11 19 22 15 9 7 7 12 29 24 15 30 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Interceptions Taken 17 18 13 23 Fumbles Taken 12 6 2 7 Sacks 48 42 41 56 Sacks Allowed 39 59 47 48 Return TDs 3 2 2 3 Return TDs allowed 3 2 6 4 Penalties 69 70 108 110 Opponent Penalties 110 95 92 108 Pass Avg vs Run Avg 14 6 4 4 DON’T PAY NOW! CAN YOU REALLY GET ALL OF WARREN’s 2014 RECOMMENDATIONS WITHOUT PAYING A CENT UNTIL THE SEASON ENDS? From Warren: “Paypal gave me a GREAT opportunity to help all my clients in 2014. I’m ALL ABOUT efficiency & this is THE MOST efficient way to get on board. With ‘Bill Me Later’, any subscription over $99 allows you to pay NOTHING NOW & NOTHING for up to 6 months! That’s WELL after the season is OVER! Everyone has a bankroll and needs to manage it. But this is by FAR the very best way to not eat into your bankroll AT ALL before the season starts. Plus, by purchasing a full season subscription, you’re getting the LOWEST WEEKLY RATE! And the cheapest method of accessing my analysis, with no payments and no interest until well after the season ends? There is no downside to this insane offer, and no strings. When looking for my analysis and recommendations, its easily the very best option for 3 reasons: 1. Keep your bankroll at 100% 2. Get the cheapest weekly rate all year 3. Pay AFTER the season ends Instead of buying a weekly package, this is cheaper/week and costs you NOTHING until the season ends. I would not be promoting it if I didn’t think it was the single best move you could make before the season starts. Just look for the ‘Bill Me Later’ option when you check out at Paypal!” Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved Line Value and Importance of Beating the Closing Number would play the steam at the worst number 100% of the time. These are certainly extremes. But the point should be obvious & it’s fundamental for every single professional bettor. You MUST get good numbers when you bet. You MUST beat the closing number. Here is an interesting study which certainly has limitations and drawbacks, but illustrates the point perfectly. The imaginary scenario is that you are Nostradamus when it comes to predicting line movement. And you put that skill to work for you on College Football totals. Over a 4 year span of college football totals, you bet on every single opening total. And you bet over or under solely based on the direction you knew the line would move. And you were ALWAYS right. And this is a prime reason why many Las Vegas syndicates and professional sports bettors work with me for my totals recommendations. Example 1: if the line opened at 55, you knew it would be bet to the Under, so you bet Under 55, and the line closed 50. Over the last several seasons of working with these guys, we are anything BUT reactive. I generate my number on the game and compare it to the Vegas number. When it’s the optimal time to make our move, we move in and so does the number. Which is why on most totals releases, both NFL and College Football, when I release a recommendation, the market responds. Example 2: if a game opened at 45, you knew the line would move higher, so you bet Over 45, and the game closed at 49. This certainly is a complete pipe dream. No one bets every single game (there were almost 3,000 games I used for the study in this span). And no one knows the direction every single game will move, without ever being wrong. I performed a study using 4 years of data on College Totals. Of the approximately 3,000 games with totals, roughly 85% of the games saw the line close at a different number than it opened. This is not looking at the very first book to post lines, it’s looking at the average book who opens generally by coping the number from a larger, smarter and better book. Of the 85% of games which saw the line move, the movement actually factored into the outcome in roughly 6% of the games. That number sounds small, at first blush. But I assure you, its not. As all professional sports bettors know, hitting 55% for a season is solid profit. Hitting 52.4% is breaking even (assuming standard 20 cent lines). Hitting 50% is losing. A 5% swing is massive for professionals. My study showed the moves factoring into the outcome in 6% of games which moved. Let me illustrate it in a way everyone, not just professional bettors, will understand. Betting to win $100 on each game which moved, and betting on the opening number in the direction it moved (our Nostradamus example from above) netted $21,700. This involved risking $266,420 by betting $110 on all 2,422 games which moved. Or a ROI of 8%. However, a bettor who was NOT a Nostradamus, but simply “tailed” the line movement, was not so lucky. This bettor bet in the direction of the line move (aka betting “steam”), but he couldn’t predict the direction each game would move. So instead, he waited until the day of the game, and bet the 15 Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved direction it moved. His two examples would look like: Example 1: The line opened at 55 and was bet all the way down to 50 on game day. So the sharp money was betting under, thus, the steam player would bet Under 50 on game day. Example 2: The line opened at 45 and moved up to 49 on game day. The steam player would bet Over 49. But unlike Nostradamus, who bet the openers, the steam player bet near closing numbers. And unlike winning $21,700, he actually LOST almost $1,500. (For those contrarians out there, if you FADED the line moves across the board, betting the opposite at close on any game which moved, you lost $22,900.) The moral is you ALWAYS want to beat the closing number, and you NEVER want to wait to bet late numbers. This is a mythical situation. Just like no one knows exactly where the line will go 100% of the time AND bets it, no one But its not just market movement which is working in our favor, because different groups can bet the opposite way and take the line right back to where it started. These guys love the fact that I’m beating the closing number too. In case study after case study, the results speak for themselves. Measuring my recommendations vs the closing number during the NFL season a couple of years ago, I beat the closing number 77% of the time, as you can see above. Below, you can see a case study from last year in College Football. In all plays over the course of the study, my recommendations beat the closing number by +1.75 ppg. And only 3 recommendations out of 67 (4%) saw the closing number better than when I recommended to buy it. As the mythical example demonstrates, getting into the market at the right number and beating the closing number means the difference of making a solid ROI on your investments vs losing money. And when it comes to totals, both NFL and College Football, market timing and closing line value are just two keys I focus on and bring to the table as part of my service. Situational Play Tendencies Play calling has become a bigger focus for me in my handicapping the last couple of seasons. Certainly the most marquee QBs in the league, like Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady can call plays, check out, and set up optimal situations. No one is better than Manning. But for most teams, they are completely dependent on the offensive coordinator to lead the offense. From both a tempo and play calling perspective. No one will have a bigger effect on what the offense does than the play caller. The quarterback obviously must execute, as must all other players on the field, but the routes are run based on the play call, and after that, its skill, execution, and hopefully some individual brilliance beating a defender and making a play in the open field. I study everything from short yardage decisions to 1st and 10 decisions, and I share results of my in-season research with clients and apply the knowledge gleaned to future recommendations. Below, you should notice a few oddball teams. For instance, the Falcons actually PASSED when winning 63% of the time, even though the NFL average was All Scores Team 16 When Winning 49%. The 49ers still ran 45% of the time even when trailing. The biggest swing was the Rams, who ran it 60% when winning, and passed 65% when losing – a 25% swing. The smallest swing was the Cowboys, who passed it 63% when winning and passed it 72% when losing – a 9% swing. This information is very useful during the season and I look forward to continuing to analyze it this fall and share the results with clients. 1 Score Games When Losing Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk Passes Rushes Rush % Rk Pass % Rk ATL 703 323 31% CLE 731 347 32% MIA 652 349 35% DAL 622 335 35% NOR 689 390 36% 642 378 37% JAX HOU 675 414 38% PIT 631 392 38% NYG 607 381 39% BAL 667 423 39% CHI 611 402 40% IND 616 408 40% DEN 696 461 40% DET 657 445 40% ARI 615 422 41% WAS 654 453 41% NWE 668 470 41% MIN 590 423 42% GNB 615 459 43% TAM 561 420 43% KAN 587 442 43% OAK 565 436 44% CIN 616 481 44% STL 542 426 44% TEN 571 462 45% SDG 576 485 46% PHI 554 500 47% NYJ 527 493 48% CAR 516 483 48% BUF 571 545 49% SEA 464 510 52% SFO 457 508 53% NFL AVG 42% Copyright © 2014 by Sharp Football Analysis, LLC – All rights reserved 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 69% 68% 65% 65% 64% 63% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59% 58% 57% 57% 57% 56% 56% 56% 55% 54% 53% 52% 52% 51% 48% 47% 58% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 147 210 160 265 290 118 111 170 146 188 128 196 370 160 140 53 217 115 174 144 259 148 222 122 95 136 201 98 213 151 236 243 87 132 114 155 212 94 100 166 129 169 137 221 321 147 148 62 222 119 168 168 262 169 242 183 133 196 273 138 271 209 300 326 37% 39% 42% 37% 42% 44% 47% 49% 47% 47% 52% 53% 46% 48% 51% 54% 51% 51% 49% 54% 50% 53% 52% 60% 58% 59% 58% 58% 56% 58% 56% 57% 51% 31 30 29 32 28 27 23 20 25 24 15 13 26 22 16 10 18 17 21 11 19 12 14 1 4 2 6 3 8 5 9 7 63% 61% 58% 63% 58% 56% 53% 51% 53% 53% 48% 47% 54% 52% 49% 46% 49% 49% 51% 46% 50% 47% 48% 40% 42% 41% 42% 42% 44% 42% 44% 43% 49% 2 3 4 1 5 6 10 13 8 9 18 20 7 11 17 23 15 16 12 22 14 21 19 32 29 31 27 30 25 28 24 26 485 488 488 441 441 283 398 336 363 420 390 330 398 552 391 367 483 386 402 300 437 283 405 246 397 409 262 294 389 351 319 332 257 276 281 230 225 215 260 231 245 303 282 250 229 347 288 329 320 331 314 261 291 243 309 237 349 357 238 307 317 357 301 316 35% 36% 37% 34% 34% 43% 40% 41% 40% 42% 42% 43% 37% 39% 42% 47% 40% 46% 44% 47% 40% 46% 43% 49% 47% 47% 48% 51% 45% 50% 49% 49% 43% 30 29 27 31 32 16 25 21 22 20 19 17 28 26 18 7 24 12 14 10 23 11 15 3 8 9 6 1 13 2 5 4 65% 64% 63% 66% 66% 57% 60% 59% 60% 58% 58% 57% 63% 61% 58% 53% 60% 54% 56% 53% 60% 54% 57% 51% 53% 53% 52% 49% 55% 50% 51% 51% 57% 3 4 6 2 1 17 8 12 11 13 14 16 5 7 15 26 9 21 19 23 10 22 18 30 25 24 27 32 20 31 28 29 432 402 345 239 289 458 466 369 348 379 348 357 224 313 336 506 316 379 322 337 205 350 221 353 391 272 278 345 184 333 128 99 154 125 147 93 132 231 247 151 177 177 171 137 85 177 180 284 150 217 204 183 86 199 107 187 245 165 173 246 110 220 102 81 26% 24% 30% 28% 31% 34% 35% 29% 34% 32% 33% 28% 28% 36% 35% 36% 32% 36% 39% 35% 30% 36% 33% 35% 39% 38% 38% 42% 37% 40% 44% 45% 34% 31 32 25 28 24 19 16 27 18 23 20 29 30 12 15 13 22 10 5 14 26 11 21 17 6 8 7 3 9 4 2 1 74% 76% 70% 72% 69% 66% 65% 71% 66% 68% 67% 72% 72% 64% 65% 64% 68% 64% 61% 65% 70% 64% 67% 65% 61% 62% 62% 58% 63% 60% 56% 55% 66% 2 1 8 5 9 14 17 6 15 10 13 4 3 21 18 20 11 23 28 19 7 22 12 16 27 25 26 30 24 29 31 32