Transcript
In co-operation with
EUROPE The Vending Market in 2015 Published in September 2016
©2016 European Vending Association All rights reserved
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Legal information
COPYRIGHT © Copyright© by the European Vending Association aisbl, Brussels 2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature, without the written permission of the EVA. Permission is granted to members of the project team that is responsible for the development of this document to reproduce it strictly for purposes of EVA activity.
DISCLAIMER The opinions and findings in this document by the European Vending Association represent its professional judgment, given with due consideration to the necessary limitation of practical operation and state of the art at the time of writing. The EVA shall not incur any liability to anyone for use or reliance upon this document. Nor shall the EVA incur any obligations for damages, including consequential damages, arising out of or in connection with the use, interpretation of, or reliance upon this document.
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About the EVA • Created in 1994, the European Vending Association (EVA) is a not-for-profit organisation that promotes the interests of the coffee service and vending industries. • EVA membership covers all the various activities of the industry, including: • Machine, component (e.g. payments systems, water filters, etc.) and accessories manufacturing; • Ingredient supplying (e.g. food products, cups suppliers, etc.); • Operating (e.g. managing, filling and maintaining the machines).
• The EVA has established itself in Brussels as the reference organisation for coffee service and vending vis-à-vis the EU Institutions and other major stakeholders. The EVA also maintains close links with the European Central Bank, the various Mints and the Central Banks worldwide.
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EVA activities
• The Mission of the EVA is… EU Lobbying
Market Analysis
• To protect, promote and provide leadership to the self-serve coffee, food and beverage and Point of Use (POU) industry; • To provide a single voice for self-serve coffee, food and beverage and POU industry in Europe; • To become the reference organisation for providing data, and information about our industry to all relevant stakeholders.
Industry Information & Standards
Events & Networking
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2015 EVA Study of Consumer Behaviour regarding OCS & Vending Selected European-level highlights, based on 5,500 responses from consumers of OCS & Vending across 11 countries.
The # 1 item purchased in chilled vending machines is water
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CONVENIENCE is the #1 reason cited for using a chilled vending machine
Percentage of European Consumers who use chilled vending machines at least once per week
1/5 people drink at least 5 hot beverages
€3.98 average weekly spend per person at a chilled vending machine
30% of Europeans wish to see a wider variety of products in vending machines
3 out of 4 Consumers prefer to use a chilled
Most consumers drink coffee for “the
vending machine in the afternoon
4
a day
taste”
Source: EVA 2015 Consumer Behaviour Study produced by 5,500 vending consumers in 11 countries (500 per country) took part in this survey in February and March 2015. The countries were: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, UK.
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Scope and Methodology • Scope
• This report focusses on the market for traditional vending, with some insights into OCS. • The market for domestic & professional capsule machines, and the Horeca sector are outside the scope.
• There are three main sources of data and insights for the Market Reports:
• Leading Operators from each market, who share general market insights and information on the following metrics: • • • •
Consumption by machine type (Hot Beverage, Cold Beverage and Snack) Average Selling Price by product category (Hot Beverage, Cold Beverage and Snack) Loss rate from the machine base Refurbished Machines: share of machine placements that are refurbished
• The European Vending Machine Manufacturers’ Association who share information on new machine sales • Key suppliers and industry experts are also interviewed to gain further market insights • The project team would like to extend their thanks and appreciation to all those who have contributed
• Market modelling:
• The data from the above inputs is consolidated and used to model the active machine base in each market • The machine base is then combined with the inputs on pricing and consumption to determine the overall sales volume and sales value • The new 2015 data is then compared with data from previous years’ Market Reports to show key trends. The data from previous years is based on the work done in 2008-2009 by the EVA in cooperation with Datamonitor. One of the outputs of this work was an econometric model which correlated key metrics in each country with the actual performance of key metrics in the vending market. This model was used between 2010 and 2014.
• Fresh Analysis for 2015:
• New data sources mean that for the first time we are able to split Table Top Hot Beverage Machines into two categories: Automatic (with cup drop) and Semi Automatic (without cup drop). This is the first step of our plan to also fully report on the OCS market in the future. • New data sources, the move away from the econometric model to significantly more operator interviews, and the move to report all countries in their local currency has resulted in some modifications to the historical data – when this has happened it is clearly highlighted. In most cases, the overall trends in each market remain largely the same.
• Exchange Rates:
• For countries outside the Eurozone, the average 2015 exchange rate with the Euro has been applied to all years so that trends are not distorted by exchange rate fluctuations. • In the individual country reports for countries outside the Eurozone, local currency is used ©2016 European Vending Association. All rights reserved
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Geographical Scope • The full EVA Market Report covers 21 European countries • Countries covered are: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Republic of Ireland Italy Netherlands Poland Portugal Russia Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Ukraine
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2015 Market Landscape
EUROPE
In co-operation with
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Key Market Insights • Some Key Facts:
• The European Vending Market had a total revenue in 2015 of €14.6 billion Euros. • In Europe, vending machines sell over 90 million food and drink items every day. • Hot beverages represent 79% of the vending sales volume and 60% of revenue, with cold beverages 10% and 18%, and snack & food 11% and 21%. • There are about 130 Europeans per vending machine, and this ranges from just over 60 in the Netherlands to 895 in Russia. • Over 80% of machines are located in the workplace.
• Market Dynamics
• Several markets that have seen many years of revenue decline have either started to grow again, or at least remained flat – most notably Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK - and this is very encouraging for the industry. • Prices are rising in most markets, and in hot beverage especially this is a result of operators placing higher quality equipment, usually bean-tocup, and often also with paper cups – the American-style coffee shop boom is finally translating into better, higher value offering in the workplace, and also in premium coffee-to-go in public sites. • At the same time some markets are having to deal with high inflation and difficult economic conditions – most notably Russia, Ukraine, and Greece.
• Legislation
• Vending ‘fiscalisation’ – the requirement to register all machines with the tax authorities, and regularly report their performance – is becoming a reality in some countries: Hungary was the first to make the move in 2015, and Italy follows in 2017. It is likely to come to other countries in the next few years. • Legislation was passed in France which seeks to ban plastic vending cups by 2020. Although this is being contested, it may happen elsewhere. • Sugar tax, and regulation on food and beverages in schools and hospitals is becoming more widespread. ©2016 European Vending Association. All rights reserved
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Europe – Key Metrics Overall growth in Machine Base, Number of Vends and Revenue.
• Overall machine base was 3.82 million, up 0.4% vs 2014 • Driven primarily by table top Hot beverage
• Overall number of vends was 33.42 billion, up 1.2% vs 2014 • Driven by Hot and Cold beverage
• Overall Revenue was €14.61 billion, up 3.0% vs 2014 • Growth in all 3 categories mainly due to rising prices
PLEASE NOTE: As a result of the new, improved methodology, and an increased number of operator interviews, a number of revisions have been made to previously published data to improve accuracy. As a result, some of the historic data differs from past EVA reports, although the trends are largely unchanged. More detail on the revisions is provided in the sections on each country.
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Europe – Country ranking by Total Machine Base
CAGR 2010-15
• Italy is the biggest market in terms of total machine base with 742,000, and has been growing consistently with CAGR (compound annual growth rate) 2010-15 of 1.7% • The fastest growing machine base is in Russia: • CAGR 8.1% from 2010-15
• The steepest decline in machine base is in Portugal: • CAGR -3.7% 2010-15
• 10 of the 21 countries are growing their machine base, with the remaining 11 all declining • The overall European machine base has been relatively stable, growing at 0.2% CAGR 2010-15
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Europe – Country ranking by Total Vends
CAGR 2010-15
• Germany is the biggest market in terms of total vends, with 5.433 billion, and has shown strong consistent growth with CAGR 2010-15 of 4.5% • The fastest growth is in Poland: • CAGR 7.1% from 2010-15
• The steepest decline in total vends is in Greece: • CAGR -9.4% 2010-15
• Only 8 of the 21 countries are growing their total number of vends, with the remaining 13 all declining
• The overall European total vends has been falling, with -1.4% CAGR 2010-15
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Europe – Country ranking by Total Revenue
CAGR 2010-15
• Germany is the biggest market in terms of total revenue, with €3.193 billion, and has shown strong consistent growth with CAGR 2010-15 of 6.4% • The fastest growth is in Russia, although this is largely due to high inflationary price rises: • CAGR 13.1% from 2010-15
• The steepest decline is in Portugal: • CAGR -9.8% 2010-15
• 10 of the 21 countries are growing their total number of vends, with the remaining 11 all declining: • More are growing total revenue than total vends as a result of price rises
• The overall European revenue has grown at 1.0% CAGR 2010-15 Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Europe – Market Landscape, all countries Landscape showing Total Vends, Total Machine Base and Total Revenue. • The size of the bubble in the landscape represents the Total Revenue, and the position on the grid is determined by Total Vends (vertical axis) and Total machine Base (horizontal axis) • The European Vending landscape continues to be dominated in terms of machines and vends by 6 countries: • France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK
• The Netherlands has more total vends than Spain, but is a traditionally ‘free vend’ market which is why total revenue is relatively low • The following pack are led by 5 countries: • Austria, Belgium, Russia, Sweden and Switzerland • By virtue of high vend prices, the Swiss revenue ranks 6th overall, ahead of the Netherlands
• All others along with the 5 above are shown in a ‘zoomed in view’ on the next slide Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Europe – Market Landscape, all countries except the ‘Big 6’ Landscape showing Total Vends, Total Machine Base and Total Revenue.
• Russia is the biggest of the ‘chasing pack’ in terms of machine base, although average consumption and average vend price is clearly lower than many others which is why the total revenue is lower than Switzerland for example. • Switzerland has the biggest revenue, despite have smaller machine base and lower total vends than Russia, Belgium Sweden and Austria. This is due to above average vend prices. • Belgium, Denmark and Sweden have a high number of vends, but relatively lower average vend price (they are historically ‘free vend’ markets), which is why their total revenue is not higher.
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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15 Overall Vending Fieldbase by Machine Category Overall slight growth, driven by table top Hot beverage and Snack & Food. Free standing Hot beverage and Cold beverage declining.
• The total fieldbase was 3.82 million in 2015, up 0.4% vs 2014 • Hot Beverage – Table Top was 1.17 million, up 3.7% • Hot Beverage – Free Standing was 1.19 million, down 1.4% • Cold Beverage was 646,000, down 2.3% • Snack & Food was 809,00, up 0.7%
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Machine Base Composition 2015, and Evolution 2006-2015 Hot beverage continues to dominate with 62% share in 2015. Slight squeezing of Cold by both Hot and Snack & Food.
2006
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2015
Please note: Table top capsule machines are outside the scope of this report Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Hot Beverage Base Composition 2015, and Evolution 2006-2015 Bean-to-Cup has the biggest share with 58% in 2015. Bean-to-Cup significant growth at the expense of both instant & freshbrew.
2006
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2015
Please note: Table top capsule machines are outside the scope of this report Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Hot Beverage Base Composition 2015, and Evolution 2006-2015 Free standing has the biggest share with 50% in 2015. Table top switching from automatic to semi automatic.
2006
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2015
Please note: Table top capsule machines are outside the scope of this report Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Free Standing Hot Beverage Machine Fieldbase by Coffee Type Overall slight decline across all 3 categories.
• The total fieldbase of Free Standing Hot Beverage Machines was 1.19 million in 2015, down 1.4% vs 2014 • Instant was 314,000, down 2.1% • Freshbrew was 153,000, down 3.8% • Bean-to-Cup was 727,000, down 0.5%
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Table Top Automatic Hot Beverage Machine Fieldbase by Coffee Type Slight growth, driven by scope change in Italian reporting. Underlying trend is ongoing decline.
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• The fieldbase for Table Top Automatic Hot Beverage Machines was 265,000 in 2015, up 0.8% vs 2014 – driven by an increase in scope, and therefore machine base, in the Italian data. Underlying trend is still decline. • Instant was 46,000 in 2015, down 7.1% vs 2014 • Freshbrew was 13,000, down 8.5% vs 2014
• Bean-to-Cup was 206,000 in 2015, up 3.4% vs 2014 • driven by the change in Italian reporting. Underlying trend is still decline.
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Table Top Semi Automatic Hot Bev Machine Fieldbase by Coffee Type Continued growth, driven by Bean-to-cup.
• The total fieldbase of Table Top Semi Automatic Hot Beverage Machines was 906,000 in 2015, up 4.5% vs 2014 • Instant was 260,000 in 2015, down 1.4% vs 2014 • Freshbrew was 197,000 in 2015, down 1.9% vs 2014 • Bean-to-Cup was 449,000 in 2015, up 11.7% vs 2014
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Average Consumption by Machine Category Consumption growing slightly in Hot and Cold, but continuing to decline in Snack & Food.
• Hot beverage consumption: • 215 drinks / machine / week in 2015, up 0.3% vs 2014
• Cold beverage consumption: • 102 drinks / machine / week in 2015, up 4.1% vs 2014
• Snack & Food consumption: • 86 units / machine/ week in 2015, down 1.0% vs 2014
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Number of Vends by Machine Category Slight growth fuelled by Hot and Cold, with slight fall in Snack & Food.
• The total number of vends was 33.4 billion in 2015, up 1.2% vs 2014 • Hot Beverage machines delivered 26.4 billion vends in 2015, up 1.4% vs 2014 • Cold Beverage machines delivered 3.4 billion vends in 2015, up 1.7% vs 2014
• Snack & Food machines delivered 3.6 billion vends in 2015, down 0.3% vs 2014
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Average Vend Prices by Machine Category Prices rising in Hot and Snack & Food, with Cold flat.
• Hot beverage price: • €0.33 per drink in 2015, up 2.1% vs 2014
• Cold beverage price: • €0.78 per drink in 2015, flat vs 2014
• Snack & Food consumption: • €0.87 per drink in 2015, up 2.8% vs 2014
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Vending Revenue by Machine Category Overall continued growth in all 3 categories.
Total revenue was €14.61 billion in 2015, up 3.0% vs 2014 • Overall Hot beverage revenue: • €8.80 billion in 2015, up 3.5% vs 2014
• Overall Cold beverage revenue: • €2.68 billion in 2015, up 1.7% vs 2014
• Overall Snack & Food revenue: • €3.14 billion in 2015, up 2.5% vs 2014
Sources: 2015 interviews with operators, vending industry suppliers & experts and country vending associations; plus EVMMA data, EVA market report history and team analysis
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Appendix
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Appendix 1 Definitions – part 1 • The market report includes two types of vending machines, three sub-categories of vending offers, and three product categories. • Most table top machines are hot drinks machines, but there are also table top glass-fronted machines selling cold drinks and snacks.
Free Standing
Table Top Hot Drinks Machines
Cold Drink Machines
Glass Fronted Machines
Coffee, tea, chocolate
Water, juice and carbonated soft drinks
Confectionary, savoury snacks, fruit, sandwiches, hot and fresh food ©2016 European Vending Association. All rights reserved
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Appendix 1 Definitions – part 2 Terms used
Definition
Number of vends
The number of unique product units dispensed by a given vending machine e.g. one cup of coffee is equal to one vending transaction.
Table top beverage machines
All machines that are positioned on a work surface or a bespoke cabinet. This includes fully automatic, semi automatic and manual machines. - AUTOMATIC machines DO include cup and sugar dispensing; and usually have the option for payment systems. - SEMI AUTOMATIC machines do NOT dispense cups; and typically do NOT dispense sugar or toppings either. They generally do not have payment systems.
Hot drinks
Hot beverages, mainly coffee, tea , chocolate, coffee specialties, hot water dispensed into a cup.
Office Coffee Service (OCS)
Vending Machine
Vending Operator
Vending Sales
OCS is a specific part of vending and is defined as: a hot drink table top operation in the office environment with a small potential user group in the area of the machines, and where the machines are filled by the company where the machines are located, but maintained by the operator, and hot drinks ingredients supplied by the operator. OCS machines are designed without payment system, but a payment option can be offered via an add-in module. An operational machine located at either a client site or in a public location designed specifically for the sale and dispensing of food and drinks. It excludes all "stock" machines that are not in service in one of the channels detailed above. This excludes cigarette and gambling machines. A company, in which more than 50% of its turnover, is derived from operating, servicing or trading vending machines, both in B2C (direct to consumer) or B2B markets (corporate clients). It excludes companies with minor turnover shares on filling & cleaning machines such as FM companies, Catering companies, Gasoline retailers or other retailers. Net sales (excl. VAT) generated by vending machines on vending services. Sum from all cash and invoice income generated by a vending machine. This excludes any impact from acquiring companies, and sales to other vending operators. ©2016 European Vending Association. All rights reserved
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Appendix 1 Definitions – part 3 Terms used
Definition
Instant coffee
The coffee is prepared mixing hot water with coffee powder, soluble or freeze dried, in special mixing bowls, or directly in the cup.
Ground coffee / Freshbrew
The coffee is prepared in a special brewer, where hot water passes through the ground fresh coffee with a pressure close to 0 bar (with the same system we can obtain tea from leaf tea).
Bean-to-Cup
Bean-to-Cup is in the vast majority related to the espresso brewing technology: coffee beans are ground in the machine and then a pump pushes hot water through the ground fresh coffee with a pressure between 4 and 10 bars.
Numbering Convention
Commas: Decimal point: Million: Billion: Billion:
1,234 1.20 1,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,000 million
= One thousand two hundred and thirty four = One and two tenths = 1 million = 1 billion = 1 billion
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Appendix 2 Exchange Rates • The following average 2015 exchange rates have been used, and have been applied to all years to ensure trends are not distorted by changes in exchange rates: Czech Republic Denmark Hungary Poland Russia Sweden Turkey Switzerland United Kingdom Ukraine
€ 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00 € 1.00
= = = = = = = = = =
CZK 27.278 DKK 7.459 HUF 309.789 4.183 zł 68.070 ₽ SEK 9.358 3.010 ₺ CHF 1.066 £0.726 UAH 24.172
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Appendix 3 About the Market Report • The Market Reports are now into their 4th generation: • In 2009, the EVA commissioned Datamonitor to produce a first pan-European market and consumer survey using universal definitions and methodology for all countries. The first report covered the period from 2003 to 2008. In 2010, the EVA and Datamonitor published the update of the key performance indicators. • The 2010-2011 updates and the 2012 report were carried out by David Hoskin, a former EVA President. • The 2013-2014 review has been produced by Catherine Piana, EVA Consultant for Market Research. • The 2015 review has been produced by Martin Colston, EVA Consultant for Market Research
• In this 4th generation of the Market Report, the EVA has made the following improvements: • Detailed inputs from more operators than ever before, on a wider number of key metrics – for which many thanks • Increased robustness of the modelling based on the operator inputs • New data sources mean that for the first time we are able to split Table Top Hot Beverage Machines into two categories: Automatic (with cup drop) and Semi Automatic (without cup drop). This is the first step of our plan to also report on the OCS market in the future. • New data sources have also resulted in some modifications to the historical data – when this has happened it is clearly highlighted.
• There may be some discrepancies between the EVA Market Reports and reports made by individual country Associations. This is due to differences in definitions used by the EVA and some country Associations.
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Appendix 4 2015 Project Team and Contacts PROJECT TEAM: • Aris Kaschefi, EVA Executive Committee Member, Project Supervision • Erwin Wetzel, EVA Director General, Project Supervision • Martin Colston, Consultant for Market Research, Data Collection, Analysis and Report Production CONTACTS: • European Vending Association aisbl • www.vending-europe.eu • Erwin Wetzel, EVA Director General,
[email protected] • Julie Barth, Head of Administration & Events,
[email protected]
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About Colston Consultants • Colston Consultants was founded in 2014, and is an independent strategy and insight consultancy specialising in the Vending industry. • The principle consultant is Martin Colston, who has nearly 30 years’ experience in Vending and the wider Away From Home Hot Beverage industry in the UK, USA, Canada, Japan, China, France and Germany. • In addition to the EVA Market Reports, Martin also produces the annual UK Vending Industry Census for the UK Vending Association, the AVA.
[email protected]
• Martin was the Global Strategic Insight Director for Mars Drinks for 10 years, responsible for all primary research globally, all competitor analysis and data acquisition, and then using the insights gained to develop robust growth strategies and support key business investment decisions. • While at Mars Drinks, Martin was a member of both the Mars Incorporated Global Strategy Community and the Mars Incorporated Global Insight Community. • Also while at Mars Drinks, Martin was a regular data contributor to the both the annual AVA Census and to the quarterly EVMMA machine sales tracker.
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