Transcript
Climate Change & Sea Level Rise for Hampton Roads Douglas Dwoyer
What is CLARREO? •
Climate Absolute Radiance and REfractivity Observatory
•
CLARREO is a climate-focused mission
-
•
Improvement and testing of climate predictions
Calibration is the foundation of CLARREO
-
•
Decadal-scale trend detection
Delivers on-orbit S.I. traceability of measurements Provides calibration of operational and research sensors
Joint NASA / NOAA mission
-
NOAA portion of CLARREO is the continuation of solar irradiance and earth
What is •
Climate knowledge is the basis of future decisions in the arenas of
-
•
What is CLARREO? CLARREO?
Global and regional economics and finance International and U.S. security Food production and water availability Transportation
CLARREO is the first systematic attempt to provide these data and knowledge
-
Cornerstone of a global climate observing system Decades-long record proposed
CLARREO Reduces Climate Model Uncertainty
•
• •
The range of estimates of climate sensitivity arises from uncertainties in the climate models and their internal feedbacks, particularly those related to clouds and related processes. (Excerpted from IPCC 2007) CLARREO data will be used to test the realistic range of climate predictions Reducing the range of future scenarios will enable more informed decisions concerning mitigation and adaptation
Predicted Global Surface Warming Recent predictions based on most optimistic mitigation scenarios
Figure SPM.5
Trend in Global Mean Sea Level
FAQ 5.1, Figure 1
Do we know what’s going on? •
• • •
Changes in predictions in last few years
-
Arctic ice free by 2100 now down to 2013 by some estimates Sea-level rise from .2 m to .5 m up to .8 m to 2 m (factor of 4) Global average ocean temperature at record high of 62.8ºF
Poor understanding of, and no ability to model, ice sheet dynamics CO2 rising faster than IPCC’s most aggressive scenario Feedbacks missing in climate models coming into play
Missing Feedbacks • • •
Fossil C from tundra released as CH4 and CO2
• •
Albedo reduction due to melting sea ice and ice sheets
•
Aerosols and clouds
Oceanic releases of CH4 and CO2 Decline in Efficiency of Natural CO2 Sinks with warming Ocean circulation changes, reduced DO, H2S production
The Fate of Hampton Roads is tied to the Future of the World’s Great Ice Sheets •
There are three major ice sheets which contain 99% if the ice capable of raising sea level if melted
-
Greenland East and West Antarctic
•
IPCC projections of sea level rise do not account for potential melting of these ice sheets
•
The Greenland and West Antarctic sheets contain enough water to raise sea level approximately 40 feet if fully melted
The World’s Great Ice Sheets are Responding to Warming uwnews.org | University of Washington News and Information
Warming of Antarctic Ice Sheet Surface 1957 - 2006
3/4/09 4:10 PM
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Image from "New data show much of Antarctica is warming more than previously thought"
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West Antarctica 0.16 +/- 0.06ºC/decade East Antarctica 0.10 +/- 0.07ºC/decade
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West Antarctic Glaciers Thinning at up to 9 m/yr
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This illustration depicts the warming that scientists have determined has occurred in West Antarctica during the last 50 years, with the dark red showing the area that has warmed the most. highest resolution version of this photo (print ready)
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GO
NEWS FEATURE
NATURE|Vol Vol 461|3 September 2009
This feedback process could cause arctic emissions to become comparable to anthropogenic emissions and drive climate change independent of human action
Heat
CO2 & CH4
TUNDRA’S BURNING
M
ore than 20,000 lightning strikes were recorded on the North Slope of Alaska in 2007. Some struck the vast stretches of lakes; some hit the
to study how the entire ecosystem responds to major disturbances.” Scientists from ten research groups have been flying into the burned area from the nearby Toolik research
“Tundra fires could significantly impact the carbon balance of the Arctic and exacerbate global warming,” Shaver says.
R. GLENN
Lightning and fires on the Arctic tundra seem to be on the rise. Jane Qiu meets the researchers learning from the scorched earth in Alaska.
Potential 21st Century Sea-Level Rise Missing Feedbacks?
2.0
4x
Sea-Level Rise (m)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
IPCC
IPCC FAR
Ice
IPCC FAR Temp Ice Sheet Melt
Hampton Roads 21st Century Sea-Level Rise Flood Maps
Sea level rise: 0 mm +2
•
To estimate tidal change by 2100 sea-level rise projections are additive to the 0.15 to 0.23 m (0.5 to 0.75 ft) of land subsidence by 2100 in Hampton Roads
•
A 0.8 to 2.0 m rise in sea level
-
•
4/6/09 4/6/09 12:52 12:53 PM PM
America Africa Africa SE. SE. Asia Asia China China & & Japan Japan Europe N. America S. America Australia Australia
Yields a net tidal change of 0.95 to 2.23 m (3.12 to 7.32 ft) Could be greater due to feedbacks currently unaccounted for
Sea level will continue rising rapidly for millennia
http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=43.3251,-101.6015&z=13&m=7 http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=43.3251,-101.6015&z=13&m=7
Page Page 11 of of 22
Hampton Roads 2 m Sea-Level Rise Map
st 21
Projected Century Sea Level Rise with Ice Melt Sea Level Change (m)
IPCC FAR Temperature Scenarios 3
2
1
0 2010
2040
2070
Year
2100
Clarifying the Options for Hampton Roads •
•
•
Mitigation
-
Reduce/regulate GHG emissions (e.g.House Energy Bill) Emission regulation vs. GHG concentration targets Optional, society chooses (on a global scale to be effective)
e c i o h inundation, water shortages, …) (coastal - Strategies to deal with the impacts we know are coming C ly n O programs requiring decades and $100’s B to - Major public works projects and social engineering s d execute oa R n o t - Situation will demandmadaptation p but strategic adaptation (e.g. plaNYC) optional a H Adaptation
Reversal
-
“Geoengineering” schemes to reverse the impacts of elevated GHG concentration (e.g. orbiting mirrors, sulfate aerosols in stratosphere, …) Desperation measures with high probability of unintended consequences
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60
40
20
0
2030
$54 HdjgXZ/CN8:Xdcdb^X9ZkZadebZci8dgedgVi^dc
3,599,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, 2005 CONSTANT
100
2005
2020
2030
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370
14.2
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14.1
57.38
14.0
57.20
13.9
57.02
13.8
56.84
13.7
56.66
13.6
56.48
13.5
56.30
300
13.4
56.12
290
13.3
55.94
280
13.2
55.76
DEGREES CELSIUS (°C)
PARTS PER MILLION
350 340 330 320
1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 '1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
310
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Tonnage of PM2.5
80 75
MILLIONS OF eCO 2 TONS PER YEAR
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70 +27%
65 60
2005 LEVEL
55 50
-30%
45 40 35 1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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Key:
2030 Busines as usual forecast; 30% target; Historical emissions levels; 2005 Emissions
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20%
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