Juli 2015 - Skagen Fondene

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SKAGEN Global Statusrapport – juli 2015 Hovedtrekk – juli 2015 • SKAGEN Global leverte en mindreavkastning målt mot sin referanseindeks på 1,1 prosentpoeng i juli. Fondet hadde en avkastning på 3,2 prosent, mens indeksen MSCI All Country World Index var opp 4,3 prosent. • SKAGEN Global har levert en avkastning hittil i år på 9,9 prosent, noe som er 2,7 prosentpoeng svakere enn indeks. • Citigroup, Google og AIG var de beste bidragsyterne til den absolutte avkastningen i juli, mens Samsung Electronics, LG Corp og Lundin Petroleum var de største negative bidragsyterne. • SKAGEN Global gikk i juli inn i China Mobile, og økte sine eksisterende posisjoner i CK Hutchison Hld og Carlsberg. Fondet gikk ut av Storebrand og OCI, og trimmet posisjonene i Citigroup og TEVA etter sterk utvikling. • SKAGEN Global sin portefølje forblir attraktivt priset på både absolutt og relativ basis. Fondets 35 største innehav prises til en vektet pris/inntjening (2015e) på 12,0x og en pris/bok på 1,2x, mens respektive tall for referanseindeksen er hhv. 16,8x og 2,1x. Porteføljens rabatt er dermed betydelig målt på begge multiplene. • Vektet gjennomsnittlig oppside til våre kursmål for fondets topp 35 innehav er beregnet til 33 prosent. * Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstall for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og etter fradrag for gebyrer. 2 Avkastning, juli 2015 A Juli SKAGEN Global A Verdensindeks** Meravkastning QTD 3,2% 4,3% -1,1% Siden Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år start* 3,2% 9,9% 17,2% 19,9% 14,2% 10,5% 15,8% 4,3% 12,6% 32,6% 24,7% 17,1% 8,0% 5,0% -1,1% -2,7% -15,4% -4,7% -2,9% 2,5% 10,8% Note: Alle tall utover 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 7. august 1997 ** Referanseindeksen var MSCI World i NOK fra 7. august 1997 til 31. desember 2009 og MSCI All-Country Index fra 1. januar 2010 og videre. 3 Årlig avkastning siden start (%)* SKAGEN Global A har gjort det bedre enn indeks 14 av 18 år SKAGEN Global A (NOK) MSCI AC World** (NOK) 113 63 47 39 26 31 28 25 4 -3 -8 -5 -5 -4 -16 -23 -38 31 34 27 22 24 11 8 8 16 13 10 8 16 29 10 13 -7 -5 -5 -24 -32 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hittil i 2015 Note: Alle tall i NOK, etter gebyrer * Startdato: 7. august 1997 ** Referanseindeks var MSCI World i NOK fra 7. august 1997 til 31. desember 1997 og MSCI All-Country Index fra 1. januar 2010 og videre. 4 Markedsutvikling i juli 2015 (%) Danmark Frankrike USA (Nasdaq) Ungarn Sveits Belgia Nederland Italia Finland Spania Østerrike Storbritannia USA (S&P 500) Tyskland Sverige India Verdensindeksen Japan SKAGEN Global A Norge Mexico Indonesia Sør-Afrika Polen Singapore Canada Sør-Korea Tyrkia Hong Kong Russland Vekstmarkedsindeksen Thailand Taiwan Brasil Kina (lokal) Kina (Hong Kong) 5 10 9 9 8 7 7 2 0 0 -10 -11 -10 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 Markedsutvikling hittil i 2015 (%) Danmark Ungarn Japan Italia Kina (lokal) Russland Sveits Frankrike USA (Nasdaq) Nederland Østerrike Hong Kong Tyskland Finland Storbritannia Verdensindeksen USA (S&P 500) Sverige India Norge Spania SKAGEN Global A Sør-Korea Sør-Afrika Mexico Vekstmarkedsindeksen Kina (Hong Kong) Taiwan Singapore Thailand Polen Canada Indonesia Tyrkia Brasil 6 38 38 26 25 25 21 21 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 5 4 4 4 4 2 -3 -6 -12 -14 1 0 19 18 17 16 23 Største bidragsytere i juli 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Citigroup 224 2E+08 Samsung Electronics Google 218 2E+08 LG Corp -67 AIG 145 1E+08 Lundin Petroleum -56 Teva Pharmaceutical 107 1E+08 Lenovo Group -55 NN Group 98 1E+08 Lundin Mining -50 Sanofi 91 9E+07 China Unicom Hong Kong -46 Microsoft 88 9E+07 Norsk Hydro -44 Philips 72 8E+07 EFG-Hermes -28 Roche Holding 66 7E+07 Autoliv -27 VimpelCom 61 7E+07 KazMunaiGas -22 Total verdiskapning i juli 2015: Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 7 NOK 1 157 millioner -174 Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner AIG 440 # Samsung Electronics -175 Citigroup 423 # Norsk Hydro -168 Renault 289 # Afren -140 Nordea Bank 256 # Banrisul -122 Google 224 # Hyundai Motor -114 Sanofi 210 # KazMunaiGas -111 Roche Holding 191 # Global Telecom -84 China Unicom Hong Kong 186 # Lundin Mining -73 Cheung Kong Holdings 184 # Tata Motors -62 Volvo 156 # EFG-Hermes -61 Total verdiskapning i 2015: Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 8 NOK 3 803 millioner Kjøp og salg, juli 2015 Kjøp Salg • Ettersom spreaden mellom Samsung Electronics ordinære aksjer og selskapets preferanseaksjer har krympet, har vi flyttet deler av vår posisjon inn i de mer likvide ordinære aksjene. • Ettersom spreaden mellom Samsung Electronics preferanseaksjer og selskapets ordinære aksjer har krympet, har vi flyttet deler av vår posisjon i preferanseaksjene over i de mer likvide ordinære aksjene. • China Mobile ble tatt inn som et nytt selskap i porteføljen i juli. Det likviditetsdrevne fallet i kinesiske aksjer har gitt oss mulighet til å kjøpe et solid (62 milliarder USD i netto kontantbeholdning) og voksende selskap i en bransje som er i en konsolideringsfase, til russisk verdsettelse. • Det koreanske solselskapet OCI ble solgt ut etter en solid avkastning i år. OCI driver i en veldig syklisk bransjem og etter den sterke utviklingen i aksjen, virker risk-reward-forholdet nå mindre fordelaktig. • Ettersom det sterke resultatet i Citigroup ikke har endret vårt kursmål, så har vi redusert vår posisjon på bakgrunn av sterk aksjekursutvikling. • Vi reduserte vår posisjon i TEVA på bakgrunn av stert utvikling i aksjen etter oppkjøpet av Allergan sin virksomhet innenfor generiske legemidler. • Storebrand ble solgt ut i juli. Selv om ledelsen tar de rette grepene, så forblir aksjekursen i Storebrand tett knyttet til den norske rentekurven. Etter den siste tids opptur i aksjen ser ikke vi riskreward-forholdet som like fordelaktig. • • 9 Ytterligere analyser vi har gjort av CK Hutchison Holdings sine eiendeler innen infrastruktur har økt vår overbevisning om selskapet. Vi dro nytte av den likviditetsdrevne og panikkartede nedgangen vi så i Hong Kong til å øke vår posisjon. Nyheter de siste månedene har økt vår tro på Carlsberg sin vilje til å redusere kostnader. Fornyet økning i russiske risikopremier har gjort det mulig for oss å øke vår posisjon i selskapet på attraktive nivåer. Viktigste endringer i juli 2015 Økte poster Juli 10 Reduserte poster Juli China Mobile Samsung Electronics (Ord) CK Hutchison Carlsberg (Ny) Storebrand (Ut) OCI (Ut) Samsung Electronics (pref) Citigroup Teva Pharmaceutical Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Renault Baker Hughes Gazprom Yamaha Motor Weatherford Petrobras Mosaic UIE Rec Silicon (convertible) Akzo Nobel Samsung Electronics (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) 2Q Talanx Raiffeisen Bank Technip Cheung Kong Property Hld* Citigroup AIG Lenovo Group Volvo China Unicom 3Q Storebrand OCI Samsung Electronics (pref) (Ut) (Ut) 1Q 1Q 2Q 3Q General Electric Lundin Petroleum Columbia Property Trust Carlsberg (Ny) (Ny) (Ny) (Ny) Tyson Foods Sabanci Holding Cheung Kong Property Hld* Google Cheung Kong Hutchison Hld Hyundai Motor (Ny) (Ny) (Ny) China Mobile Samsung Electronics (Ord) CK Hutchison Carlsberg * Skilt ut fra Cheung Kong Hutchison Hld 11 (Ny) Største poster i SKAGEN Global per 31. juli 2015 Posisjonens Kurs størrelse, % P/E P/E P/BV Kurs 2015e 2016e siste mål CITIGROUP 6,4 58,5 10,4 9,8 0,9 75 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS 5,7 920 000 6,4 6,0 0,8 1 500 000 AIG 5,6 64,1 13,0 11,5 0,8 90 GENERAL ELECTRIC 4,8 26,1 20,0 16,9 2,4 34 NORDEA 3,5 107,5 12,4 12,5 1,5 150 ROCHE 3,2 279,1 19,8 18,2 13,9 380 STATE BANK OF INDIA 2,7 270,1 10,0 8,2 1,2 400 GOOGLE 2,7 625,6 21,7 18,8 3,8 600 MICROSOFT 2,7 46,7 17,6 15,3 4,7 58 LG CORP 2,6 58 000 10,0 9,0 0,8 72 000 Weighted top 10 39,9 11,6 10,6 1,2 35 % Weighted top 35 81,0 12,0 10,8 1,2 33 % 16,8 15,0 2,1 MSCI AC World Merk: Multipler for topp 10 og topp 35 er kalkulert med samme metodebruk som for indeks. 12 Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks, juli 2015 Geografisk fordeling Sektor fordeling Fund 3 Energi 1112 Materials 16 10 Frontier Markets 10 7 Medisin 13 26 Bank og finans 22 12 14 Informasjonsteknologi 5 4 Telekom Nyttetjenester Kontanter 13 Europe EM 4 Defensive konsumvarer 0 3 3 0 19 7 20 21 Europe DM ex. The Nordics 13 13 Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer Index 10 Asia EM 5 Kapitalvarer, service og transport 3 Asia DM 67 2 1 2 0 Latin America 0 1 Middle East & Africa 1 1 36 North America Oceania 55 0 2 14 13 The Nordics Kontanter 2 3 0 Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper – på engelsk Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015 AIG (5.3%) Shareholder (pre-financial crisis CEO) was awarded zero damages in court ruling for his claim that he lost money due to the government’s unduly harsh treatment of AIG in the 2008 bailout Summary: Judge Thomas Wheeler announced that Starr International (Former AIG CEO Hank Greenberg) had won the case against the US government but will be awarded zero damages. Key passages in our view from the judge's ruling: "…Although the Federal Reserve Bank may exercise “all powers specifically granted by the provisions of this chapter and such incidental powers as shall be necessary to carry on the business of banking within the limitations prescribed by this chapter,” 12 U.S.C. § 341, this language does not authorize the taking of equity.“; "…With some reluctance, the Court must leave that question for another day. The end point for this case is that, however harshly or improperly the Government acted in nationalizing AIG, it saved AIG from bankruptcy. Therefore, application of the economic loss doctrine results in damages to the shareholders of zero." Investment case implications: Positive. Though there will undoubtedly be continued legal maneuvering related to this case, we believe the risk of AIG having to pay meaningful damages has been substantially reduced. This is obviously positive as AIG could theoretically have been on the hook for payment of damages of over USD 20bn due to an indemnification provision in the 2008 bailout agreement. In summary, the tail risk of the investment has reduced significantly. GE (4.9%) Fleet management operations sold for $7 bn Summary: GE has announced that it’s selling the majority of its global fleet business to Element Financial Corporation for $6.9 bn or around 3.0x tangible book. It has also signed an MoU with Arval, a fully owned subsidiary of BNP Paribas, for the sale of the European arm of the operations. The fleet operations provide commercial car and truck financing and fleet management services to more than 1.5 million vehicles around the world. GE will retain only the “vertical” part of the operations that support manufacturing. The transactions are expected to close in 2015 Q3/Q4. Note that the Japanese fleet business is not included in the announced sales. Investment case implications: Small positive. GE’s $200 bn garage-sale is gaining steam, showing a skeptical market that the company has the ability and willingness to divest the GE Capital assets as previously communicated, perhaps even at an accelerated pace. Both Element and Arval specialize in full service fleet leasing and are therefore more natural owners of the business than an industrial company focusing on the production and service of aircraft engines, power units and health care equipment. Upon closure, this transaction will contribute nearly $2 bn of net capital toward GE’s targeted $35 bn of capital return to parent, comprising part of the $90 bn highlighted for potential shareholder return through dividends, buybacks and Synchrony exchange. The price tag, equivalent of 3x tangible book, looks attractive and can be compared to the expected average exit multiple of around 1x tangible book (sales thus far average 1.9x tangible book); admittedly, the best assets will be the easiest ones to sell, so late-stage sales will probably come at less exciting multiples. Looking forward, we expect more sales announcements to follow over the next few weeks (and months). 15 Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015 Heidelberg Cement (2.1%) Capital Markets Day in London with management setting lofty targets Summary: Ambitious new targets from management at their Capital Markets Day in London. Growth targets of 15% EBITDA CAGR, 18% FCF CAGR and 30% EPS CAGR between 2015 and 2019. If they deliver on those promises then the stock will be trading at P/E multiple of less than 7,5x in 2019. We like their guidance although it might be a bit optimistic. We focus on their ability to generate FCF and increase dividends and buy back shares firstly, and there is evidence of this happening from 2015. The 2015 dividend payout ratio has been increased and dividend expectations from management is at €1,63/sh., up from €0,75/sh. for 2014 and 40% ahead of consensus expectations for 2015. So what are the main reasons behind the management’s bullish outlook and guidance? First, they have introduced a concept called Heidelberg Premium, an operating model that is superior to the industry average and will lead to better earnings growth during the period. Second, their North American business volumes are still well behind those of the previous peak in cement, supporting the view that the mid-cycle is still ahead. Volumes in the US are 36% below 2006 peak and only 10% above the 2009 trough. Cash flow will be strong in the years to come if they can execute their strategy and there should ample room for both shareholder returns and also potential new M&A. Investment case implications: We continue to like the good execution from the company and with that comes better cash flow and a more robust balance sheet. We would have liked to see the increase in dividend higher as we believe they have the balance sheet to pay close to €3/sh. for 2015. As long as they are moving in the right direction then we are happy to own the stock and by looking 2-3 years out we could see the stock trading below 10x earnings and that is cheap compared to their 10-year average of 13x. We have a target price of €90 for 2017 as the stock should trade at 13x + dividends. This gives us 30% upside. Yazicilar (0.6%) Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for hydropower plant in Georgia Summary: Yazicilar announced that it has signed an MoU with the Georgia Energy Ministry for feasibility, field work and a planned hydropower plant with a capacity of 51MW. The study will run for a maximum of 18 months and, if successful, total investment could reach USD 100m (TRY 270m). Investment case implications: Neutral. USD 100m equals 8% of market cap, but likely positive long term as the project looks pretty profitable. Yazicilar already has two hydropower plants in operation with an installed capacity of 210MW. We calculate NAV per share at TRY 33.4 or a P/NAV of 63% where its 27.7% in the brewer Anadolu Efes alone represents TRY 23.4 or 10% more than the share price. In addition, you get TRY 4.5 per share in net cash (mainly indirectly), while the put option for its 17% holding in Alternatifbank would release TRY 1.4 from July 2016. Admittedly, Anadolu Efes at EV/EBITDA of 11x is not grossly undervalued, but at a meaningful discount to EM average of 14x and strong earnings momentum with upside on a normalization in Russia. Complicated corporate structure is a negative, but offers upside potential. Forthcoming acquisition of a 27.4% stake in #2 grocery retailer, Migros, for TRY 1.3bn is interesting and will make this investment 24% of NAV. 16 Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015 Hyundai Motor (1.8%) Very weak May unit shipments - but recovery should come in 2H15 Summary: Unit shipment of 389,299 for May fell 6% YoY marking the worst decline since the financial crises and a worsening from -1% YoY displayed in April. China plant shipment of 80,000 units fell 12% YoY, while shipment from its Brazil plant of 13,609 units was down 17% (in line with the market). Shipments from the US plant of 26,100 declined 17% YoY (weak end sale and increasing inventory contributing). Domestic sales declined 8% YoY to 54,990 units (losing market share to foreign brands), while export out of Korean plants of 93,277 units declined 6%. The only halfbright spot was shipment from Czech plant 28,740 units up 8% signaling a better trend in European sales. Investment case implications: Clearly negative. In order to meet its FY15 volume target of 5 mn units (+2% YoY), we will need to see 6% YoY growth for the remaining of the year which now looks challenging. Domestic OEMs in China are gaining market share with affordable SUV offerings. Overall utilization in China is on a decline amid slowing sales and increasing capacity. The two new Hyundai factories in China coming on stream in 2H16 (600k total capacity), now seem ill-timed. The channel stuffing in December 2015 (global shipment +19% YoY) also hurts, although the pain should have diminished sharply by now. New models will be supportive with US and European launch of Tuscon small SUV early 3Q15 (11% of global shipment) and refreshed Avante/Elantra (19% of global shipment) in Korea early 4Q14 with global launch late 2015/early 2016. This should support volumes and margins from 3Q15 onwards. The likelihood of introduction of an interim dividend should also be marginally supportive. Our pref. shares now trade at a P/BV of 0.44x with net cash per share in the auto operation of KRW 54k or 52% of pref. share price. Share is down 18% yearto-date mainly due to weak shipment. Is Hyundai turning into a value trap? With RoE of 11% on depressed earnings, we don’t think so. Clearly, the company faces some headwinds and the China capacity expansion seems ill timed, but model portfolio refreshment should create tailwind. Japanese peers benefit from the weak JPY but trade on 2015 P/E of 12x with 11% RoE and 2% dividend yield after the 41% average bounce in FY15. The European peers are on average at exactly the same key ratios. Emerging market peers are higher but with better capital returns. Hyundai seems to have been overly penalized by an emotional market. We think most of the incremental sellers have left by now, leaving the stock with a fairly attractive risk-reward at current levels. Volvo (1.5%) Divests remaining stake in Eicher Motors Summary: Volvo sold its remaining stake in Eicher Motors (Indian producer of commercial vehicles/trucks) for SEK 2.2bn. A capital gain of c. SEK 2bn will be included in the Q215 accounts. Investment case implications: Minor positive. Volvo strengthens its balance sheet (but some of the money is likely to be used for future fines related to EU price fixing on trucks). Importantly, the joint venture with Eicher in India will continue as before. Volvo is a long term case with ability to improve FCF/share to SEK 10-11 which implies upside to at least SEK 120/share. 17 The 10 largest companies in SKAGEN Global Samsung Electronics is one of the world's largest producers of consumer electronics. The company is global #1 in mobile phones and smartphones, the world's largest in TV and a global #1 in memory chips. Samsung also produces domestic appliances, cameras, printers, PCs and air conditioners. Citi is a US financial conglomerate with operations in more than 100 countries worldwide. The bank was bailed out by the US government during the credit crisis and subsequently raised USD 50bn of new capital. Consists of two units: Citi Holdings which is a vehicle for assets that are to be run down and sold and Citi Corp which is the core of the going concern business. In Citicorp 60% of revenues are derived from outside the US - mainly from emerging markets. AIG is an international insurance company serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. The company provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services. AIG was at the very centre of the financial crisis as the central bank for mortgage insurance – it was bailed out in a USD 180bn bail out. The company has two core insurance holdings: Sun America and Chartis that it intends to keep. The company has set a target to achieve 10% ROE by 2015. Founded in 1892 by Thomas Edison et al., General Electric (GE) operates two divisions (GE Industrial, GE Capital) contributing approximately the same portion of group earnings. GE is the world’s 10th largest publicly-traded company and boasts the 6th most valuable brand. The industrial segment is a play on global infrastructure with a high-margin service business and a large installed base producing a wide variety of capital goods ranging from aircraft engines and power turbines to medical imaging equipment and state-of-the-art locomotives. Nordea holds pole position in the Nordics with 11.2m retail costumers and 625,000 corporate clients. Nordea is the largest Nordic asset manager/wealth manager with EUR 224bn in AuM (EUR 138bn in managed funds). It is the most diversified among its Nordic peers. Total loans are EUR 346bn with the following split: Finland 27%, Sweden 26%, Denmark 24%, Norway 18%, and Baltics/Poland/Russia 5%. 18 The 10 largest companies in SKAGEN Global (cont.) Microsoft is the world’s largest software company and delivers software to a number of applications from PCs to servers and cell phones – its most famous product is Windows and the affiliated Office Software Suite. In recent years the company has also diversified into video game consoles, ERP systems, internet search and cloud-based computing. Despite a strong push for diversification 80% of the company’s revenues and nearly all its profits come from three main areas: Windows OS, Windows Server and the business division (Office Suite). Roche is a leading pharmaceuticals and diagnostics company based in Switzerland. Half of group sales and 2/3 of EBIT is derived from the company’s Big 3 oncology franchises: HER2 (breast cancer), Avastin (colorectal cancer), and MabThera/Rituxan/Gazyva (blood cancer), each about USD 7bn of revenue. These businesses all come from Genentech, in which Roche has been a majority owner since 1990, and bought the last 46% in 2009. LG Corp is the third largest conglomerate in Korea. It is a holding company which operates a number of listed subsidiaries: LG Chem (basic chemicals but it is also a leading manufacturer of batteries), LG Electronics (consumer electronics and home appliances), LG Uplus (wireless telecom services), and LG Household & Health (households and personal care products). The company also operates a number of unlisted companies. DSM is a global life sciences and materials science company. It was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Heerlen, the Netherlands. The company operates in five segments: nutrition, performance materials, polymer intermediates, pharma, and an innovation centre. DSM has spent a decade reshaping its businesses from basic chemicals to life science. 2/3 of earnings comes from nutrition today. State Bank of India is the largest bank in India with a 22% market share. It has an unrivaled pan-India branch network and a very strong deposit franchise. The bank also has a sizeable overseas presence (15% of loan book). Aside from its core banking operation, the company is also involved in life insurance, asset management, credit cards, and capital markets. 19 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Global på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.