Transcript
Utsikter: Norsk økonomi og boligmarkedet
NBBL, 25. november 2015 Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
Bakteppe: Oljemedvind har blitt oljemotvind Vi venter bare forsiktig opphenting i oljeprisen
Oil price Brent Blend, USD/barrel 150 120 90
60 30 0 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Actual Norges Bank (Sep-15)
Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 DNB Markets
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Det betyr investeringskutt på norsk sokkel... Pga lavere lønnsomhet og svekket kontantstrøm. Drøyt -30% in 2015-17
Norway: Petroleum investments 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990
1995
2000
Bn 2012-NOK
2005
2010
2015
Share of Mai nland GDP (rha)
Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
3
…og aktivitetsfall i oljetilknyttede næringer Oljeleverandører og ringvirkninger til næringsrettet tjenesteyting
Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 til +5. Prod. ha
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3 Jan-06
Jan-08
Oljelev.
Jan-10
B/A
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Jan-12
Jan-14
Varehandel
-6 Jan-16
B2B
Arbeidsledigheten stiger… SSBs arbeidskraftsundersøkelse: 4,6%, høyeste nivå siden juli 2005
Arbeidsledige 1000. Sesongjustert
190
190
170
170
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
50
50
30 Sep-90
Sep-95
Sep-00
Reg.+tiltak Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets
Sep-05 Reg.
Sep-10
30 Sep-15
AKU
…men økningen er ujevnt fordelt geografisk Forvent bredere oppgang (geografisk/yrkesmessig) når ringvirkninger spres
Norway: Registered unemployment by region Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Oct-11
Oct-12 South West
Oct-13 East Middle
Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Oct-14
Oct-15 Inland North
Ikke rart - “oljejobbene” er ujevnt fordelt 2014: 330 000 (13% av alle) jobber. 21% av disse eksportrelaterte
Source: IRIS-rapport, «Industribyggerne 2015»
Støtdemper 1: Oljeprisfallet har svekket kronen Gjør norske bedrifter mer konkurransedyktige
Norge: Relative timelønnskostnader i industrien, målt i felles valuta Indeks. 2003=100 130.0 120.0
110.0 Isolert ef f ekt av 10 prosent svakere krone
100.0 90.0 2003
2008
Kilde: Teknisk beregningsutvalg/DNB Markets
2013
Støtdemper 2: Lavere rentekostnader Nær null => mer aggressiv sentralbank. Støtter husholdningenes kjøpekraft
Norge: Foliorente Prosent
1.75
Vi venter kutt i desember. Markedet venter kutt i mars. Norges Banks rentebane indikerer kutt i midten av neste år
1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50
0.25 0.00
-0.25 Jan-15
Jan-16
PPR 2/15
Jan-17 PPR 3/15
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Jan-18 x finstab
DNB
Støtdemper 3: Muskler i finanspolitikken Stimulans øker neste år. Skattelettelser, bygg og vedlikehold – gir jobber
Strukturelt, oljekorrigert underskudd. Mrd NOK, 2016-priser 300
250 200 150
100 50 0
2002
2006
2010
Faktisk Kilde: Finansdepartement et
(NB2014)/DNB Markets
2014 4%-regel
Joker: Hvordan reagerer forbrukerne? I verste fall vil forsiktighetsmotivert sparing øke, og forsterke «oljebremsen»
Detaljhandel
Forbrukerforventninger for neste år
Sesongjustert volum. 3m/3m årlig rate, %
12
60
9
40
6
20
3
0
0
-20
-3
-40
-6 -9 Sep-10
Indeks
-60 Q4 1992 Sep-11
Sep-12
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Q3 1998
Q2 2004
Landets økonomi Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q1 2010
Q4 2015
Egen økonomi
Vi venter ikke panikksparing… Men stabil, moderat forbruksvekst, i tråd med kjøpekraftsutviklingen
Norway: Households. Per cent Percentage annual change
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 1996
2001 2006 Consumption Savings rate (level)
Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
2011 2016 Disp. income
…og heller ikke en krasjlanding i boligmarkedet Dagens prisnivå ikke en boble. Men nå snur driverne i negativ retning
Norge: Bruktboligpriser Prosentvis endring år/år 30
20
10
0
-10 1985
1990
1995 2000 2005 Faktisk/anslag
Kilde: Eiendom Norge,/Finn.no/Eiendoms verdi/DNB
2010 2015 Modell
Markets
Merk: Forklaring ikke synonymt med usårbarhet Økonomiske krefter virker begge veier. Arbeidsledigheten skal videre opp.
Norge: Boligprismodell
Norge: Boligprismodell
Virkning av 1 pp høyere rente Referansebane = 100
Virkning av 1 pp høyere ledighet Referansebane = 100
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
2012 Modell Kilde: DNB Markets
2013
2014
2015
2016
Med eksogen boligbeholdning
2012 Modell Kilde: DNB Markets
2013
2014
2015
2016
Med eksogen boligbeholdning
Gjelden er høy, men renteutgiftene er lave Uproblematisk for de fleste å håndtere gjelden nå
Norge: Husholdningene Prosent av disponibel inntekt 20
250
16
200
12
150
8
100
4
50
0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
Rentebelastning Kilde: Statistisk
sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
Gjeldsandel (ha)
En moderat tilbudsside tilsier at fallet blir moderat En helt annen byggerespons på innvandringen enn i Irland (& Spania)
Norge: Befolkning og boligbygging
Irland: Befolkning og boligbygging
Prosent av befolkning
Prosent av befolkning
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 Nettoinnvandring Øvrig Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2010 Fullførte boliger
1990 1995 2000 2005 Nettoinnvandring Øvrig Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2010 Fullførte boliger
Nå avtar arbeidsinnvandringen Men flyktningkrisen i Europa har nådd Norge. Effekten er usikker
Norge: Asylsøknader
Norge: Asylsøknader
1000 personer
1000 personer
25
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
20 15 10 5
2007
0 2007
2009
Kilde: UDI//DNB Markets
2011
2013
2015* (til okt)
2009 Afghanistan Irak Somalia
Kilde: UDI/DNB Markets
2011
2013 Eritrea Iran Syria
2015* (til okt)
Supersyklusen ved veis ende… Både for norsk økonomi og for boligprisene
Norge: Reell bruktboligpris Utvalgte def latorer. 1985 = 100 350 300
250 200 150
100 50
1985
1990 KPI
1995
2000
Årslønn
2005
2010
2015
Disponibel inntekt
Source: Eiendom Norge/Eiendomsveri/finn.no/ SSB /DNB
Markets
…men ingen krise! Lavere vekst enn normalt, ikke fall i aktiviteten. Støtdempere virker
Norway: Mainland GDP and unemployment Percent.
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2003
2008
Mainland-GDP (change, y/y) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
2013
Unemployment
Oppsummering • Norge og verdensøkonomien går motsatt vei: Lavkonjunktur i Norge, mens oppsvinget fortsetter ute. • Oljeboom har blitt oljebrems: En lavere oljepris gir kraftig investeringsrevers på norsk sokkel. Gir ringvirkninger i fastlandsbedriftene, arbeidsmarkedet, lønnsoppgjørene og boligmarkedet. • Landingen blir myk, støtdempere virker. Penge- og finanspolitikk, solide husholdninger, svak krone. • Flyktningestrømmen gir ekstra usikkerhet om arbeidsmarked, boligmarked, finanspolitiske impulser
Memo
Valuta- og renteanslag Policy rates
21-Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 0.50 0.75 0.10 0.10 -0.05 -0.05 0.75 1.25 -0.45 -0.45 0.50 0.25 -1.00 -1.00
USA: Fed Funds Japan: Day-to-day Euro: Repo UK: Base rate Sweden: Repo Norway: Folio Switzerland: 3M Libor CHF
24-Nov-15 Feb-16 0.25 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.05 -0.05 0.50 0.50 -0.35 -0.45 0.75 0.50 -0.75 -1.00
3-month money market rates Country USA Japan Euro U.K. Sweden Norway Switzerland
21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 0.40 0.55 0.75 1.00 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.15 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.57 0.65 0.90 1.35 -0.39 -0.35 -0.35 -0.25 1.19 0.85 0.80 0.50 -0.75 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00
10-year swap rates Country USA Japan Euro area U.K. Sweden Norway Switzerland Source: DNB Markets
21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 2.09 2.25 2.25 2.50 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.85 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.80 2.00 2.00 2.25 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.85 1.75 1.50 1.50 0.05 0.25 0.25 0.25
Exchange rates EURNOK USDJPY EURUSD EURGBP EURSEK EURCHF USDCNY Exchange rates (calculated) SEKNOK USDNOK GBPNOK JPYNOK DKKNOK CHFNOK KKI Source: DNB Markets
21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 9.22 9.30 9.10 9.00 122.6 123 125 125 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.10 0.70 0.68 0.67 0.70 9.26 9.40 9.10 9.00 1.08 1.08 1.10 1.15 6.39 6.55 6.70 7.00 21-Nov-15 24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16 99.57 98.94 100.00 100.00 8.66 8.77 8.43 8.18 13.08 13.68 13.58 12.86 7.07 7.13 6.74 6.55 124 125 122 121 851 861 827 783 115.5 116.5 114.5 112.0
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