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Table 7.10 Growth Scenario in the Medium-Term, 1999-2004 1999 Low High 2000 Low High 2001 Low High a 2002 Low High 2003 Low High 2004 Low High Average Low High Gross National Product real growth rate (%) Per capita GNP, in pesos (1985=100) Per capita GNP in pesos (nominal) 3.0 12835 41542 3.7 12920 42204 5.3 13236 45625 5.9 13396 47040 4.6 13567 49571 5.1 13795 51831 5.9 14076 54001 6.4 14384 57286 6.6 14718 59003 7.1 15103 63459 5.7 15262 63634 6.4 15765 69554 5.2 13949 52229 5.8 14227 55229 Gross Domestic Product real growth rate (%) Per capita GDP, in pesos (1985=100) Per capita GDP in pesos (nominal) 2.6 12200 39515 3.2 12264 40092 4.8 12522 43197 5.4 13656 44475 3.9 12752 46628 4.6 12973 48782 5.4 13170 50564 5.9 13465 53669 6.1 13700 54965 6.6 14079 59201 5.2 14137 58987 5.9 14628 64584 4.7 13080 48976 5.3 13511 51801 3.0 1.4 5.5 1.1 0.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.0 5.9 1.7 0.5 5.0 4.0 3.5 5.0 6.0 4.4 5.9 7.4 5.3 4.1 5.6 6.5 5.0 6.4 7.8 5.8 0.5 4.8 7.0 4.0 6.5 7.0 4.7 1.5 5.4 7.5 4.5 7.5 7.3 5.3 3.5 6.0 6.0 5.6 6.7 7.5 5.6 4.3 6.6 6.5 6.0 8.0 7.9 6.0 4.0 6.8 7.0 6.3 8.0 8.0 6.4 4.6 7.5 7.5 7.0 9.0 8.8 6.7 1.0 6.6 7.5 5.8 9.0 7.5 5.8 2.0 7.2 8.0 6.3 10.0 8.6 6.4 2.6 5.1 6.5 4.5 6.0 6.9 5.2 3.4 5.7 7.0 5.1 6.9 7.6 5.7 • Population g.r. (%) 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 • Domestic Savings Rate (% of GNP) 21.1 20.8 21.3 21.8 21.9 22.2 • Foreign Savings (% of GNP) -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.3 • Investment (% of GNP) 18.9 19.6 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.5 • Incremental Capital Output Ratio 6.8 4.0 4.9 4.0 3.7 4.5 • Inflation Rate (%) 8.0 9.0 6.5 7.5 6.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 4.5 5.5 4.0 5.0 • 50% probability of El Nino occurring in 2001 and 2004. Historically, the El Nino occurred every 3 years (i.e., 1982-83; 1986-87; 1989-90; 1994-95; 1997-98) 21.5 -0.4 21.1 4.7 5.7 6.7 Sectoral Breakdown (%) Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry Industry Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Construction Utilities Services a/ Assumptions 2.1 • Assuming that El Nino will not occur in 2001 and 2004, the following growth path is possible: Real growth rate (%) Gross National Product Gross Domestic Product Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry Industry Services 3.0 2.6 3.7 3.2 5.7 4.8 6.1 5.5 5.8 5.3 6.4 5.9 6.3 5.8 6.6 6.2 6.5 6.0 7.0 6.5 6.8 6.3 7.3 7.0 5.7 5.2 6.2 5.7 3.0 1.4 3.5 3.5 2.0 4.0 3.5 5.0 5.3 4.5 5.6 5.8 3.8 5.7 5.6 4.7 6.4 6.0 4.1 6.7 5.8 4.8 7.0 6.2 4.2 7.0 6.1 5.2 7.4 6.4 4.5 7.4 6.3 5.6 8.0 6.7 3.9 5.5 5.4 4.7 6.0 5.9 Source: National Economic and Development Authority