Transcript
Missouri Climate Trends Pat Guinan Extension\State Climatologist University of Missouri University of Missouri
Our Missouri Waters‐Lower Grand Watershed Healthy Watershed Planning Meeting #2 Thursday, January 21, 2016, FSRC
2015 is warmest year on record…
Global Temperature Anomalies ((1895‐2015)) 10 yr running mean 10 yr. running mean
D Departure f from Norm mal (°F)
2015 was 1st warmest
1977 Warm Year Cool Year Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000
Source: NOAA/MCC
Contiguous U.S. Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015) ( ) 2015 = 2nd warmest 2015 = 2 10 yr running mean 10 yr. running mean
D Departure f from Norm mal (°F)
2012 1934
Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000 g g g
1998 2006 2015
Warm Year Cool Year Source: NOAA/MCC
Missouri Temperature Anomalies (1895‐2015) ( ) 10 yr running mean 10 yr. running mean 2015 = 23rd warmest 2015 = 23 2012
D Departure f from Norm mal (°F)
1921
1931 1938
1912 1924 1917 Using long‐term average: 1901‐2000 g g g
1998
1978 1979
Warm Year Cool Year Source: NOAA/MCC
U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Station Network “The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”
NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri 28 Pioneer Stations (still active)
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895 2015 ) (1895‐2015*)
*Sep‐Dec 2015 data are preliminary
Long‐term average: 54.6°F
5 yr. running mean
Annuall Average TTemperaturre (°F)
2012 1921
1931 1938
1912 1924 1917
1998
1978 Warm Period Cool Period
1979
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec‐Jan‐Feb, 1895‐2015*) *The winter of 2014 is defined as Dec 2014 and Jan, Feb 2015
5 yr. running mean
Averaage Winterr Temperature (°F)
Long‐term average: 32.1°F Warm Period W P i d Cool Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar‐Apr‐May, 1895‐2015) 5 yr. running mean
Long‐term average: 54.2°F
Averaage Spring Temperatu ure (°F)
2012 Warm Period Cool Period 1977
1924 1931
1991 1987
2007
1983 1984
1947 1960
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)
Average Summer Temperatture (°F)
Long‐term average: 75.6°F
5 yr. running mean
1934 1936 1901
1954
1915
1927
1950
1980
1992
2004
Warm Period Cool Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
19341936
Missouri Average Summer 1901 Maximum Temperature 1913 ( (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015) l )
1915
1927
1980
1992 2004
1950
1934 Missouri Average Summer 1936 1954 Mi i Minimum Temperature T (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015)
1915 1927
1950
20102011
1967
1992 Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep‐Oct‐Nov, 1895‐2015*) Long‐term average: 56.4°F
5 yr. running mean *Sep‐Nov 2015 data are preliminary
Averaage Autum mn Temperaature (°F)
1931 1963
1998
1897
2015
1932 Warm Period Cool Period Cool Period
1996 1993
1951 1976
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895 2015 ) (1895‐2015*)
*Sep‐Dec 2015 data are preliminary
Long‐term average: 40.86”
5 yr. running mean 1973
Annuaal Average Precipitatio on (in.)
1927
1901
1936 Wet Period Dry Period y e od
1993
20082015
1976 1980 1953
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Winter Precipitation (Dec‐Jan‐Feb, 1895‐2015*) *The winter of 2014 is defined as Dec 201 and Jan, Feb 2015
Long‐term average: 6.52” Average Winter Precipitation (in.)
1915‐16
1919‐20 Wet Period D P i d Dry Period
5 yr. running mean
1949‐50 1948‐49 1936‐37
1984‐85
1969‐70 1962‐63 1963‐64
1976‐77
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Spring Precipitation (Mar‐Apr‐May, 1895‐2015) Long‐term average: 12.00”
Averaage Spring P Precipitatio on (in.)
1927
5 yr. running mean 1973 1945
1898
2008
1930 1932 1934 1936
1971 Wet Period Dry Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Summer Precipitation (Jun‐Jul‐Aug, 1895‐2015*) Long‐term average: 12.18”
5 yr. running mean
Averaage Summe er Precipitaation (in.)
*2015 data are preliminary
1915
1901
1951
1928
4th wettest
1993
1930 1953 1936
2015
2012 Wet Period Dry Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation (Sep‐Oct‐Nov, 1895‐2015*)
Averaage Autumn n Precipitation (in.)
Long‐term average: 10.17”
5 yr. running mean *2015 data are preliminary
1941 1926
1904 1897
1950 1953 1956
1993 1986 1984
Wet Period Dry Period
Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
2012 Drought…many, many impacts E. Cole
E. Cole
E. Cole C. Starbuck
USACE P. Guinan P. Guinan
P. Guinan
MO DNR
K. Graham
@Hayleee
Missouri’s biggest climatic vulnerability is drought…
Departu ure from lo ong‐term avverage(in.))
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* y p p g Jan 2011 – Dec 2015 *Long‐term average: 1895‐2010 Jan 2011‐Dec 2015 departure from normal: +12.71” 32 out of 60 months below normal, 53%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Missouri’s biggest climatic vulnerability is drought…
Departure from lo ong‐term aaverage(in.))
Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* y p p g Jan 1952 – Dec 1956 The 1952‐56 period is the driest 5 The 1952‐56 period is the driest 5 consecutive years on record for Missouri.
*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010
Jan 1952‐Dec 1956 departure from normal: ‐ 48.09 inches!! 45 t f 60 45 out of 60 months below normal, 75% th b l l 75%
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
2015 weather story…
Missouri Monthly Precip. Departure from Average* J D 2015 Jan‐Dec 2015 Sep‐Dec data are preliminary
*Long‐term average: 1895‐2010
Departure from Average (iin.)
Flood Flood Drought Monitor, 11‐10‐15
Drought
Year = 2015
2015 weather story…
Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* J D 2015 Jan‐Dec 2015 *Long‐term average: 1895‐2010
Sep‐Dec data are preliminary
Departure from Average (°°F)
W Warmest Dec on record tD d
5th warmest autumn on record
Year = 2015
Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 3‐inches in Missouri 1895 2015 1895‐2015
No.. of Daily Evvents ≥ 3 in nches
1895‐1985 average: 15.6/year 1986‐2015 average: 20.8/year (33% increase)
10 yr. running mean
1993 1961
Year
2008 2015 2009
Data Source: NOAA/Missouri Climate Center
Impacts… flooding, late planting, fallow fields, nutrient loss, erosion, compaction, wet pastures, weeds, diseases, etc.
Linda Geist
Linda Geist
Dave Marner
Linda Geist
Linda Geist
Missouri Average Nov Precipitation (in.) Long‐term average: 2.89 in.
1985 1992
2015
Missouri Average Dec Precipitation (in.) Long‐term average: 2.34 in.
1982
1895
Missouri Average Nov‐Dec Precipitation* (in.) 2015
Long‐term average: 5.23 in.
1982 1992
2015
Major Flooding, Late Dec 2015 Accumulated Precipitation (in.) Dec 26‐29, 2015
MRCC
Missouri Climate Trends
Updated through Dec 31, 2015
•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in 1998; 13 out of the past 18 years (72%) have been above normal; 2012 was the warmest year on record (since 1895). •Seasonally, Missouri winters and springs have experienced the greatest warming trend; 17 out of the past 26 winters (65%) and 14 out of the past 18 springs (78%) have been above normal have been above normal. •The median last spring frost date in Missouri is occurring about 3‐4 days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long‐term average. •Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and autumn have been fairly weak. Up until the past few years (2010‐12), Missouri summers have not been unusually hot compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The biggest degree of compared to others in the past, ie. 1901, 1934,1936, 1954 and 1980. The biggest degree of summer warming has been with minimum temperatures. •The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past 30 years compared to the long‐term average. d h l
Missouri Climate Trends
Updated through Dec 31, 2015
•Beginning in the early 1980 •Beginning in the early 1980’ss, and since 1895, an unprecedented wet period has and since 1895 an unprecedented wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 21 out of 35 years (60%) have had above normal precipitation. •Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal •Over the past few decades all 4 seasons have witnessed more above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in winter where 20 out the past 34 winters (59%) recorded above normal precipitation. Snowfall trends have been declining. •Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) daily precipitation events compared to the long‐term average. •Recent historical trends for Missouri indicate an unprecedented multi‐decadal wet period beginning in the early 1980’s. Conversely, there have been multi‐decadal dry periods, i.e. 1950’s and 1960’s. •Extended dry and wet patterns can change abruptly and there are numerous occasions, where Missouri transitioned from one extreme to another in a short period of time. •The 2012 drought resulted in numerous impacts, affecting many sectors in Missouri. However, it was a young drought when compared to other historic droughts, i.e. 1952‐ 56. An important question we all need to consider is how prepared are we when the next 1950’s drought affects the Show Me State?
Missouri Mesonet Real‐time
Linn County, FSRC
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/
http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/
cli-MATE (MRCC Application Tools Environment)
mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/
December 27, 2015
www.cocorahs.org
Dec 27, 2015 ,
www.cocorahs.org
September 10, 2014 Linn County MO Linn County, MO
10.82
8 90 8.90 7.57
4.80
www.cocorahs.org
CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application: The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri for 9 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently, more than 350 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114 counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomes associated with having a viable, online real-time network of precipitation observing in Missouri include:
•Drought Drought Assessment •Flood Assessment •NWS and Regional Climate Centers •River Forecast Centers- model application
www.climate.missouri.edu
Weather & Climate Resources http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm
River Information Resources for Missouri River Information Resources for Missouri http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm
Missouri Climate Center http://climate missouri edu http://climate.missouri.edu
