Transcript
Panel Opportunities in Mobile Convergence
Moderator: Jodi Shelton, Executive Director, GSA Global Semiconductor Alliance
Opportunities in Mobile Convergence
Moderator: Jodi Shelton, Executive Director, GSA Global Semiconductor Alliance Panel: Brian Gerson, Fellow, Vice President Research, PMC-Sierra Paul Kempf, Vice President, Silicon, Research in Motion (RIM) Stephen Orr, Director of Sales for Mobile Devices, Motorola Canada
Strategies Driving Convergence
Mobility Any time, anywhere access to voice, data, music, video Mobile handheld device is adopting new technology at record pace Connected Home Receiving, managing, securing, converting and distributing content PC domain and Consumer Electronics domain convergence
Wireless: Key Growth Drivers for Semiconductor Industry
Converging Dual Core Processors CE & Mobility for more Combining location & mobility with power
>600 million multimedia users (2007)
audio, camera, video & gaming
More intuitive User Interface to access rich media Introducing Internet via mobile broadband
Migrating Voice to Data 3G Network Deployments around the globe: EVDO, HSPA, TD-SCDMA
Increasing Tele-density Extending Voice and Services into emerging markets
1+ billion data users (2007)
~1.8 billion voice users (2008)
Sources (top to bottom): Yankee Group; ARC Group; Yankee Group
Mobile Phone Shipments Far Exceed Other Devices
Global Device Sales Forecast 1,100 1,000 900 800 Millions
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001
2002
2003
Mobile Phones
2004 PDAs
2005
2006
2007
Notebook PCs
2008
2009
2010
Desktop PCs
Source: Qualcomm
Despite Perceived Economic Slowdown, Global Handset Demand Remains Strong Across Multiple Segments Global Mobile Handset Sales 1,600 1,400 56 46
1,200 1,000 800
31 48 270
37 74
111
344
416
165
65 232
72 301
78 362
Feature rich lowend smartphone 467
497
526
555
600 400
428
425
424
406
398
385
200
Source: Informa,Oct 7; Strategy Analytics, Oct 7; Yankee Group, Jan-08; 225 209 199 197 IDC, Dec-07 164
0
2006
2007
2008
Feature rich highend smartphone
2009
2010
Feature rich nonsmartphone Low feature phone
364
Source: ABI Research, Oct-07 127 Basic phone 93
2011
2012
Rapid growth of subscriber base in emerging markets Greater demand for infotainment and other feature-rich media services that leverage mobile broadband Source: Informa
Mobile Phone Shipments Far Exceed Other Devices
Global Device Sales Forecast 1,100 962
1,000 900 800
832
863
2005
2006
1,001
1,024
1,030
2008
2009
2010
705
Millions
700 552
600 500
409
458
400 300 200 100 0 2001
2002
2003
Mobile Phones
2004 PDAs
2007
Notebook PCs
Desktop PCs
Source: Qualcomm
Opportunities in Mobile Convergence
Brian Gerson, Fellow, Vice President Research and Development, PMC-Sierra
Supporting Market Trends
The Mobile Crossover!
Source: AT&T, Dec 2007
Mobile subscribers still growing rapidly: 2011 >4B (Infonetics 2008) Wireless data enabled phones growing explosively Source OVUM 3G/3.5G handsets to exceed 500M units/yr by 2011 (IDATE 2008) “Unlimited” plans emerging – dramatically reduces barrier to mobile data usage Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, etc. Computers utilizing mobile broadband (not WiFi) accelerating 154% US growth in 2007 to >2M computers (comScore 2008) DSL enabled fixed Internet, 3.5G (HSDPA)/4G(WiMAX, LTE) enables mobile Internet
Mobile continues to grow – wireless data’s growing – new technologies are emerging to further fuel the trend
Question #1 –Appliance Trends
Cell-phone morphs to become your personal remote (Broadband appliances), home phones don’t… DECT/GSM offering offered by BT late nineties; Ericsson and Sagem produced handsets – traction unclear
Dual mode phone offerings Dual mode phones emerging combining cellular and WiFi (WiMax?)
Poor range and power -- no hand-off UMA and VoIP extensions are dead ends
Standards emerging to support hand-off issue (ie. Voice call continuity (VCC) 3GPP). Six companies, BT, Rogers, KT, Brasil Telecom, NTT, and Swisscom have formed the FMC alliance to drive standardization
IMS-VCC and Femtocells…true convergence? Uses cellphone (LTE/WiMax) Likely to co-exist with GPS (for Location based services) and NF (for transactions)
FemtoCell Could Compliment Existing Cellular Infrastructure
Macrocell
Microcell
Picocell
Femtocell
Cell radius
<20km
<1000m
<300m
<100m
Output Power
40–46dBm (10–40W)
20–30dBm (100–1000mW)
10–24 dBm (10–250 mW)
<20 dBm (<100 mW)
Sectors
3-6+
1-3
1-3
1
Environment
Outdoor
Outdoor
Indoor/Outdoor
Indoor
Antenna Location
Tower, Rooftop
Street-level
Wall-mounted
Desk Top
Applications
Urban, Suburban and Rural Coverage
Urban capacity
Dead spot coverage Hot spot capacity In-building coverage
POTS replacement VoWiFi replacement High speed data
Question #2 –
Is the Technology up to it!
Yes! It can be achieved today with “Velcro” radios using System-inPackage (SiP) technology; integrated radios wherever RF CMOS performance is good enough (and increasingly so in the future with more flexible radio architectures and advanced technology) Cost & Performance trade-off for SiP vs SoC: SIP high performance; SoC low cost SiP System partition allows designers to put large digital blocks in CMOS (SDR?), and high-performance analog in either RF CMOS or SiGe BiCMOS SoC Likely that subsets of radios to be integrated together were it makes sense - Integrate logical groups of radios first (LTE/WiMax), followed by BB/Mac integration Things not likely to integrate – PAs (III-V) co-existence filters (MEMS?) Wireless Standards are all evolving to bandwidth scalable OFDMA and technologies are becoming more similar (combined LTE/WiMax Standard?)
Grand Challenges
Support for MIMO and smart antennas. Network robustness and increased spectral efficiency are the drivers
•
Multi-band BB/MAC -> Multi-band RF solution (BB/MAC is agnostic to RF band)
Software defined radio (SDR) is the solution and gates are free! - SDRs require lots of software - Power efficiency of SDR potential issue for hi volume handsets
Power
Directly relates to the user experience. Low standby power is critical; intelligent scaling of operational power a must
Seamless hand-offs (VCC again). No dropped calls! Co-existence
Ton of spectral overlap in the unlicensed bands…lots of licensed bands to support
Question #3 –
How will cellular SPs make money when FMC opens the door for lowest cost/bit service; how do wireline SP avoid becoming simply providers of big fat pipes? Video and multimedia content support is key - Revenue sharing between, CP, WISP, wireline SP (aka Korea 3G) Enable “place shifting” of personal fixed content with your digital remote (aka converged appliance) Offer location based services. Use to fund FMC network? Store/secure personal information and enable paperless/cardless transactions Don’t compete on price, compete with value add services - Single phone number - Seamless integration with VoIP service (enable lowest cost per session) Capital will be required to improve BW and ARPU as model evolves…Trigger point will be saturation of network
Business Drivers
Opportunities in Mobile Convergence
Paul Kempf, Vice President, Silicon, Research in Motion
Mobility Requires Growing Feature List GPS WiFi Charging Flash Camera MicroSD Light Sensor HF Speaker BT RTC Battery Receiver Spkr Headset Microphone SIM Side Switches WAN Radio Vibrator Navigation Serial Interface Keyboard Display
HW Features
Time
Being More Connected
BlackBerry® Unite!™ software will enable a small group of up to 5 users to: Stay connected with wireless email and web browsing Coordinate schedules using shared calendars Remotely access content Share photos and files Remotely secure the smartphones Control smartphone use Protect smartphone content Set up quickly and easily
Removing Barriers
Interoperability makes it reliable Radio access Transport and network protocols QoS Mobile applications make it useful Business tools Messaging integration Location based services Multimedia content / advertising Video and TV
Opportunities in Mobile Convergence
Stephen Orr, Director of Sales for Mobile Devices, Motorola Canada
Wireless – The Largest Innovation Space 2008 Global TAM
Gaming: 36 Imaging: Laptops: Music: Navigation: 40 107M 117M 135M
Mobile Handsets: 1.2 Billion
The mobile device is the Ultimate Convergence Platform
The Industry is still in it’s Infancy
Richer Experiences Through Wireless Broadband (3G and 4G)
World population
4 births per second 1x/gprs
Mobile Phones
25 sold per second
dora/hsupa
3g
wimax/lte
ring tones
multimedia
wap
html
walled garden
open access
Wireless will enable “first time” Internet access in emerging countries
Social Networking
Convergence Examples
Q&A
Panel: Brian Gerson Fellow, Vice President Research, PMC Sierra Paul Kempf Vice President, Silicon, Research in Motion (RIM) Stephen Orr Director of Sales for Mobile Devices, Motorola Canada
