Transcript
Restaurant Monthly July 2017
Restaurant Industry Commentary TM Capital’s restaurant indices traded below the S&P 500 over the last 30 days, while same-store sales and same-store traffic declined by 1.0% and 3.0%, respectively. Bad news again for Chipotle, with the company’s stock reaching a new 52 week low following the most recent wave of food safety related concerns. We’ll be curious to see how these new incidents affect same store sales for the quarter. M&A and investment activity remains strong – with private equity continuing to lead the way. In particular, Roark Capital Group acquired its 20th restaurant brand – the 37-unit Jim ‘N Nick’s Bar-B-Q; and the 200 unit Lebron James linked Blaze Pizza, closed on a significant investment from Brentwood Associates.
Current Restaurant Valuations by Price Point (TEV / EBITDA) 20.0x 15.0x
13.8x
13.5x
11.0x
10.0x
20.0x
5.0x
15.0x
—
10.0x
QSR
10.1x
8.8x
20.0x
13.0x 15.0x 12.5x
13.0x 12.2x 12.5x 11.9x
10.0x
12.2x
Family Dining
Fast Casual
5.0x —
11.3x
8.9x
5.0x TEV / LTM EBITDA Median
8.8x
11.9x 10.3x 10.3x
Segment Index
9.2x
Premium Dining
QSRFast Casual
Family Dining Fast Casual
FamilyCasual Dining Dining
Casual Pr
114
120
108
110
99
100
95
90
92
80
80 Sep-16
Oct-16
S&P 500
Nov-16 QSR
Dec-16
Jan-17
Fast Casual
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Family Dining
May-17
Jun-17
Casual Dining
Jul-17
Premium Dining
Recent Restaurant M&A Activity Closed / Announced 07/13/2017 07/12/2017 07/12/2017 07/11/2017 07/10/2017 07/10/2017 06/30/2017 06/22/2017 06/20/2017A 06/08/2017A
Enterprise Target Strategic Investment in Blaze Pizza 34 Panera Restaurants Village Burger Bar, LLC Mo'Bettahs Back Yard Burgers, Inc. Jim 'N Nick's BBQ Deep Creek Restaurant, Inc. MHD, Inc. Dagwoods Sandwiches Et Salads 11 Popeyes Restaurants in Georgia
8
Median TEV / 2017E EBITDA
130
70 Aug-16
7.1x
10.3x 10.3x 9.2x 9.0x
Casual Dining
Public Market Performance (Latest Twelve Months) — QSR
7.8x
Acquiror Brentwood Associates Flynn Restaurant Group LLC Firebird Restaurant Group, LLC Four Foods Group Holdings, LLC Axum Capital Partners Roark Capital Group 206 Restaurant Group, LLC Freshii Inc. (TSX:FRII) MTY Food Group Inc. (TSX:MTY) GPS Hospitality
Value NA NA NA NA NA NA NA $4.2 NA NA
Industry EBITDA / Value Multiple NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
/ / / / / / / / / /
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Segment Fast Casual Fast Casual Casual Fast Casual QSR Casual Casual Fast Casual Casual QSR
Indices consist of all publicly-available information for restaurant operators in their respective price points. For full listing, please contact the TM Capital Restaurant Practice.
Quarterly Gainers & Decliners by Price Point
Q1 '17 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 Q1 '16 Q4 '15 Q3 '15 Q2 '15 Q1 '15 Q4 '14 Q3 '14 Q2 '14 Q1 '14 Q4 '13 Q3 '13 Q2 '13 Q1 '13 Q4 '12 Q3 '12 Q2 '12 Q1 '12 Q4 '11 Q3 '11 Q2 '11 Q1 '11 Q4 '10 Q3 '10 Q2 '10
Fast Casual Family Dining
8.0% 6.0%
4.0% 2.0% ― (2.0%) (4.0%)
(6.0%) (8.0%) (10.0%)
―
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010
Q1 '17 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 Q1 '16 Q4 '15 Q3 '15 Q2 '15 Q1 '15 Q4 '14 Q3 '14 Q2 '14 Q1 '14 Q4 '13 Q3 '13 Q2 '13 Q1 '13 Q4 '12 Q3 '12 Q2 '12 Q1 '12 Q4 '11 Q3 '11 Q2 '11 Q1 '11 Q4 '10 Q3 '10 Q2 '10
2011 QSR
2012 Fast Casual
2013 Family Dining
2014
2016
2015
Casual Dining
2017
Premium Dining
Selected TM Capital Restaurant Experience
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%)
―
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
―
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1 '17 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 Q1 '16 Q4 '15 Q3 '15 Q2 '15 Q1 '15 Q4 '14 Q3 '14 Q2 '14 Q1 '14 Q4 '13 Q3 '13 Q2 '13 Q1 '13 Q4 '12 Q3 '12 Q2 '12 Q1 '12 Q4 '11 Q3 '11 Q2 '11 Q1 '11 Q4 '10 Q3 '10 Q2 '10
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%)
Casual Dining
10.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%)
Q1 '17 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 Q1 '16 Q4 '15 Q3 '15 Q2 '15 Q1 '15 Q4 '14 Q3 '14 Q2 '14 Q1 '14 Q4 '13 Q3 '13 Q2 '13 Q1 '13 Q4 '12 Q3 '12 Q2 '12 Q1 '12 Q4 '11 Q3 '11 Q2 '11 Q1 '11 Q4 '10 Q3 '10 Q2 '10
TM Capital’s Restaurant Contacts
(100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%)
Premium Dining
Same Store Sales Growth Same Store Sales Growth
Quick Service
Decliners / Gainers
Same Store Sales by Price Point
―
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q1 '17 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 Q2 '16 Q1 '16 Q4 '15 Q3 '15 Q2 '15 Q1 '15 Q4 '14 Q3 '14 Q2 '14 Q1 '14 Q4 '13 Q3 '13 Q2 '13 Q1 '13 Q4 '12 Q3 '12 Q2 '12 Q1 '12 Q4 '11 Q3 '11 Q2 '11 Q1 '11 Q4 '10 Q3 '10 Q2 '10 (100%) (80%) (60%) (40%) (20%)
―
20%
40%
New York 641 Lexington Avenue 30th Floor New York, NY 10022 Tel: 212.809.1360
60%
80%
100%
James S. Grien
Craig M. Gibson
Philip S. Krieger
John A. Dean
Managing Director
[email protected] 404-995-6235
Managing Director
[email protected] 617-259-2204
Principal
[email protected] 404-995-6242
Vice President
[email protected] 404-995-6234
Boston 201 Washington Street 32nd Floor Boston, MA 02108 Tel: 617.259.2200
Atlanta 1230 Peachtree Street NE Suite 550 Atlanta, GA 30309 Tel: 404.995.6230 www.tmcapital.com
