Skagen M2 Statusrapport – Juni 2015

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SKAGEN m2 Statusrapport – juni 2015 Hovedtrekk – juni 2015 • SKAGEN m2 var ned 4,5 prosent i juni, mens MSCI sin eiendomsindeks var ned 3,3 prosent. Måneden var volatil som følge av de pågående forhandlingene om Hellas og korreksjonen ble forsterket mot slutten av måneden. • Vi solgte oss ut av 2 selskaper i juni. Det amerikanske boligbyggerselskapet, Hovnanian, ble solgt etter nok et skuffende kvartal. Vi solgte oss også ut av General Shopping pga. valutagjeld de ikke klarer å håndtere. Vi frykter at de vil være nødt til å selge eiendommer på en måte som ikke er bærekraftig for å kunne betale renter og kommende låneforfall. Shimao Property ble solgt siden vi ikke lenger tror at de kan levere på våre triggere innen en fornuftig tidsramme. Vi har også vært bekymret for den ekstreme oppgangen i aksjemarkedet i Kina som kan ha smitteeffekt på Hong Kong noterte selskaper som Shimao. • De beste bidragsyterne i juni var våre to spanske selskaper, Melia Hote og Axia. Melia kom med gode resultater i mai og fortsatte oppgangen i juni, mens Axia hadde en liten gjenhenting etter en aksjeutvidelse som doblet selskapets market cap. • De svakeste bidragsyterne i juni var vårt greske innehav, Grivalia som følge av de pågående forhandlingene og en mulig Grexit. Bekasi Fajar var ned også i juni, hovedsakelig som følge av den negative salgs guidance de annonserte for hele 2015. I tillegg har den pågående skatteimplementeringen av luksusboliger påvirket hele det indonesiske eiendomsmarkedet negativt. Men Bekasi Fajar er ikke påvirket av de nye skattelovene. • Det beste markedet i juni var Sør Afrika. De svakeste markedene var India og Indonesia. • De 10 største postene er nå 38 prosent av porteføljen. SKAGEN m 2 består nå av 51 poster og har 1 prosent i kontanter. * Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstall for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og etter fradrag for gebyrer. 2 Avkastning, juni 2015 A Juni SKAGEN m2 A MSCI ACWI Real Estate Relativ avkastning QTD -4,5% -3,3% -1,3% Note: Alle tall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning) * Startdato: 31. oktober 2012 3 Hittil i år -10,7% -7,9% -2,8% Siden start* -0,1% 3,5% -3,6% 14,7% 21,1% -6,4% Markedsutvikling i juni i NOK (%) Thailand Sør-Afrika Brasil Canada Verdensindeksen Singapore Vekstmarksindeksen Norge UK Hong Kong Australia Frankrike MSCI Eiendomsindeks Philippinene USA Japan Tyskland Kina (Hong Kong) SKAGEN M2 Kina (lokal) Tyrkia Indonesia India 4 3 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -7 -7 Markedsutvikling hittil i år i NOK (%) 30 Kina (Hong Kong) 18 Kina (lokal) 17 Philippinene 13 UK 11 Hong Kong 10 Japan 9 Norge 8 8 Verdensindeksen Vekstmarksindeksen Sør-Afrika 6 Singapore Frankrike 6 6 Australia 6 3 MSCI Eiendomsindeks 2 Thailand Canada 0 0 SKAGEN M2 0 Tyskland -1 USA -2 Tyrkia -5 India -6 Indonesia Brasil 5 -15 Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK (000) Selskap NOK (000) Melia Hotels 7 613 # Bekasi Fajar -11 298 Mitsui Fudosan 4 752 # Ashford Hospitality Trust -8 572 SM Prime 4 339 # HCP -7 270 IRSA 3 007 # Brandywine Realty Trust -5 987 British Land 2 975 # CBL Properties -5 233 First REIT 2 856 # General Growth Properties -3 299 Keppel Land 2 727 # Ticon Industrial -3 291 Olav Thon 2 294 # BR Malls -3 207 Citycon 1 980 # SL Green -2 606 Mercialys 1 976 # PS Business Parks -2 593 Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015: Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 6 NOK -13 millioner Største bidragsytere i juni 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK (000) Axia Real Estate 1 001 Selskap NOK (000) ##### Olav Thon -6 137 Melia Hotels 916 ##### Global Logistic Properties -3 932 SM Prime 820 ##### General Growth Properties -3 856 Phoenix Mills 476 ##### Bekasi Fajar -3 415 BR Properties 465 ##### Westgrund -3 372 Ananda Development 365 ##### CBL Properties -2 804 Affine 287 ##### Columbia Property Trust -2 545 Ascendas India Trust 262 ##### SL Green Realty -2 503 IRSA 155 ##### HCP -2 418 CapitaLand 150 ##### Brandywine Realty Trust -2 374 Total verdiskapning i juni 2015: Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 7 NOK -57 millioner Største bidragsytere i juni 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Axia Real Estate NOK (000) 1 001 Gjenhenting etter svak utvikling etter aksjeutvidelse. Melia Hotels 916 Sterkt resultat og god operasjonell ledelse. SM Prime 820 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Phoenix Mills 476 Forbedring i tallene fra alle shoppingsentrene. BR Properties 465 Ananda Development 365 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Affine 287 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Ascendas India Trust 262 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. IRSA 155 CapitaLand 150 Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 8 En liten bedring etter svak utvikling så langt i 2015. Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Største bidragsytere i juni 2015 Største negative bidragsytere Selskap NOK (000) -6 137 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. En større norsk aksjonær ønsket å selge over 1 millioner aksjer. Vi brukte denne muligheten til å øke våre beholdning. Global Logistic Properties -3 932 Spekulasjoner rundt oppkjøp av en portefølje i USA dro ned aksjen. Investorer er generelt fokusert på vekst i Kina og ønsker å bruke kapital i Asia i stedet for i USA. Vi tror det kan være en god ide å øke eksponeringen mot USA for diversifisering. General Growth Properties -3 856 Olav Thon Bekasi Fajar -3 415 Westgrund -3 372 CBL Properties -2 804 Columbia Property Trust -2 545 SL Green Realty -2 503 HCP -2 418 Brandywine Realty Trust -2 374 Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning 9 Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Generell volatilitet i USA. Selskapet kom med negativ guidance for salg hele året 2015. På toppen av dette er nye skatteregler negativt for indonesisk eiendom innen luksussegmentet (5 prosent skatt ved kjøp, men vil bli implementert sammen med mer fordelaktige låneregler) som ikke har påvirket selskapet, men som har vært negativt for alle eiendomsaksjer. Pågående oppkjøp av Adler Real Estate og over 95 prosent av aksjonærene I Westgrund har godkjent sammenslåingen. Det har vært tekniske bevegelser I aksjen siden budet er en kombinasjon av aksjer og kontanter. Også påvirket av frykt for Grexit. Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Bare gode nyheter. Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Økte renter vil vanligvis påvirke aksjer negativt. Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter. Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q1 Q1 Q2 10 Shangri-La Asia HCP Ashford Hospitality Trust SOHO China Mitsui Fudosan Global Logistic Properties Olav Thon (Ny) Axia Real Estate Keck Seng Investments Grivalia Properties Olav Thon CBL Properties Deutsche Wohnen (Ny) (Ny) (Ny) Q2 Keppel Land Lexington Realty Trust Unibail-Rodamco Citycon CSI Properties (Ut) (Ut) Shimao Property China South City Citycon Hovnanian CSI Properties Melia Hotels International Ticon Industrial Mapletree Logistics Trust BR Malls (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) (Ut) Største kjøp og salg, juni 2015 Kjøp Keck Seng Investments • Langsiktig verdiskaper og eier av hoteller i Asia og USA. Priset til stor rabatt. Axia Real Estate • Nylig børsnotert spansk selskap med fokus på kontorer i Madrid. Kjøpte en liten post i forbindelse med notering. Grivalia Properties • 11 God mulighet i en periode med svingninger. Grivalia er det største børsnoterte eiendomsselskapet i Hellas. Selskapet har en høykvalitetsportefølje i Hellas og Øst-Europa (Serbia 2% og Romania 10%). Børsnotert i 2006. Eiendom i Athen er 74% av MV. Langsiktig verdiskaper, holder kontanter utenfor landet og gjeld lokalt. Salg Melia Hotels • Redusert fra 2.5% til 2% i fondet etter god oppgang. Ble redusert for å finansiere ny post i Spania (Axia). Shimao Property Holdings (ut) • Solgt fordi triggerne har endret seg og vi var bekymret over utviklingen i det kinesiske aksjemarkedet. . Citycon • Solgt etter oppkjøp av norske Sektor Gruppen. Langsiktig kapitalstyring er svak og selskapet klarer ikke vokse organisk. CSI Properties • Solgt ut på grunn av kapitalallokering og selskapsstyring. Største poster i SKAGEN m2 pr. 30. juni 2015 Postens størrelse P/NAV siste Div. Yield 2015e EBITDA 2015e/EV Global Logistic Properties Ltd 4,27% 2,53 102% 2,0% 5,6% Columbia Property Trust Inc 4,10% 24,61 80% 4.9% 6.0% HCP Inc 4,03% 36,63 112% 6.6% 6.3% Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA 3,99% 142,5 80% 1.2% 6.2% Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd 3,88% 3427 107% 0.8% 5,3% General Growth Properties Inc 3,85% 25,76 90% 2,6% 5.4% Ashford Hospitality Trust 3,51% 8,22 80% 5,8% 9,6% Brandywine Realty Trust 3,41% 13,39 85% 4.5% 7,6% PS Business Parks Inc 3,27% 72,35 95% 2.8% 6,0% SL Green Realty Corp 3,23% 110,15 90% 2,1% 4,6% 92% 3.3% 6.2% 3.4% 6.5% Vektet topp 10 37.6% Vektet topp 35 85% Referanseindeks 12 Kurs 3.3% Geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeksen juni 2015 (%) 52 Fond Indeks 32 21 20 19 13 11 7 3 0 Asia DM 13 Asia EM Europe DM ekskl. Norden Europe EM 2 2 0 Frontier Markets 0 5 4 1 Latin Midtøsten Nord Amerika og Afrika Amerika 0 Oceania 6 1 Norden 1 0 Kontanter Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper – på engelsk Key earnings releases and corporate news Aimco, US (3.2%) BR Properties, Brazil (1.4%) Ashford Hospitality Trust, US (3.6%) 15 Strong Results above expectations, creating significant share price appreciation. Summary: Aimco provided results above expectations which led to a significant jump in share price. The company is almost at the end of its repositioning process and has become a socially accepted company with low debt (but still higher than peers) and improved quality of residential (two acquisitions of A-quality, and disposal of affordable housing). The company has been repriced since the launch of SKAGEN m2, but still trades below peers. They continue to improve free cash flow. Their high interest level debt is maturing and this will mean further improved cash flow going forward. Implications for the investment case: The company has acted in accordance with its statement, but has not been repriced accordingly. As it offers healthy residential exposure in the US with sensible cash flow, we choose to keep it in the portfolio. Q1 results in line with expectations. Battle for company overshadows results. Summary: BR Properties, which owns some of the best offices in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, announced results while fighting a bad bid from the main shareholders. The result was in line with expectations. The increased vacancy is due to weak markets and increased cost percentage due to disposal. However, it is important to focus on the extremely cheap assets that this company owns. This has resulted in bids and some bad proposals regarding the future of the company. Implications for the investment case: We will buy this company as long as no corporate governance issue appears. However, there is a battle to acquire this high quality company. We hope that the main shareholder will work in the best interests of all shareholders. The main hope is that the focus on Brazilian corporate governance issues will improve behaviour and that the company can survive on its own. Bought 4 hotels for USD 220m and intends to sell 23 select services hotels. Summary: Ashford announced that they bought 4 new hotels in June and that they intend to sell 23 hotels in the select service segment. They also stated their intention to increase analyst activity to ensure that they are up to date with their analysis. Implications for the investment case: The company is trading at a significant discount to NAV, but the external management agreement has a negative value to be included. The company is obviously under-researched. Only 3 analysts are up to date. Undervalued; yes, due to external management fees. Unpopular; Too much debt, but the secured non-recourse model is not widely understood. Key earnings releases and corporate news (cont.) British Land, UK (2.6%) Gecina, France (1.3%) Hovnanian, US (0%) 16 Issued convertible bond at 0% interest, 27.5% above trading share price Summary: British Land issued a 5-year senior convertible bond with 0% coupon and conversion price that was 27.5% above trading price. NAV is slightly above GBP 8. The proceeds will be used to develop 1 Sheldon Square. Implications for the investment case: British Land is decreasing its cost of capital to an extremely low level. . Acquired two offices in Paris CBD. Summary: The acquisition is quite substantial, approximately 12% of EV, but they stressed that they will use loan and credit lines in the medium term and proceeds from the sales in the long term. The company is trading at a premium to NAV, and it will obviously be tempting to issue equity for financing purposes. Implications for the investment case: Gecina increased their leverage after having reduced the level over the last two years, and increased guidance for 2015. The share may be hurt by the uncertainty regarding the equity issue that they stressed they don’t need. However, most companies want cheap money and the question is whether this uncertainty will remain an issue for some time. 2Q15 (Feb-April) result was a big disappointment Summary: Hovnanian, the US homebuilder, provided a weak result with a substantial decline in gross margin (before interest and GA) from 20% to 16%. The result was in line with 08/09 and a big disappointment. The company promised much better results in the coming two quarters and may be 0 for the year. However, the results confirmed that homebuilders as a group are not able to increase their prices in line with cost increases after firing almost 70% of workers following the financial crisis. Implications for the investment case: This will cause a decline in cash flow and the investment thesis was based on recovery that they are not able to achieve. Due to the high debt level and upcoming debt maturities, the investment case has become significantly weaker and may no longer be sustainable. We sold out. The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of June 15 (cont.) General Growth Properties (GGP), founded in 1954, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages and develops shopping centres. The company is the second largest mall operator in the world. The company holds interests in 120 malls, 7 office properties and 6 other properties generating an average of USD 564 in tenant sales per square foot (malls). Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing opportunistically in the hospitality industry across all segments and at all levels of the capital structure primarily within the United States. Invests opportunistically in the whole capital structure including lending to other hotel owners. Ashford Hospitality Trust owns 115 hotels (directly and in JV with Prudential). Brandywine Realty Trust is a self-administered, self-managed and fully integrated real estate investment trust. The company is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, and development of primarily suburban office properties. It also owns an interest in and operates a commercial real estate management services company. 209 buildings of total 24.1m sqf (2.1m m2). 182 office, 19 industrial and 5 mixed use in addition to 4 redevelopment / use properties. They are also part of 19 unconsolidated JVs. PS Business Parks, Inc. is a self-advised and self-managed real estate investment trust that acquires, develops and owns 29m sqf (2.7 m2) and operates commercial properties, primarily multi-tenant office industrial or "flex" space in 102 business parks in 8 states. The company’s main exposure is towards California. Flex (52%), industrial (30%) and office (18%). Total occupancy 90%. SL Green Realty Corp. is a fully integrated, self-administered and self-managed REIT. The company specialises in owning and operating office buildings in Manhattan. It owns equity or debt in 92 properties totaling 41.6m sqf, of which it owns equity (~82 %) in 29m sqf and the rest is collateral for debt investments. SL Green provides debt financing, in many cases to achieve properties. In addition to Manhattan, they also have interests in suburban areas of Manhattan (5.3m sqf). Manhattan occupancy of 95.9% compared to 83.5% (1Q15) in suburban areas. 17 The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of May 15 GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 700 completed properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US forming an efficient network with assets strategically located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centres. The USD 27bn property portfolio comprises 28m sqm serving more than 800 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly complete and stabilised providing strong operating cash flow to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of 2013 to enable recycling in the Chinese market in line with the Japanese model. This business model leads to a more effective capital structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund) Columbia Property Trust, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, ownership, leasing, and operation of office properties. Own 59 office buildings, total 16.5m sqf (1.6m m2) valued at USD 5.1bn. The company was listed without any equity issue in Oct.13 to provide liquidity for shareholders. Bought back shares during 4Q after listing. Core focus is 16 main cities throughout US. 50% CBD and 50 suburban exposure. Occupancy 92% Financial, 91% Physical. From externally managed to internal management. HCP is a fully integrated self-administered real estate investment trust that acquires, manages, and invests in healthcare (largest sector in US economy) real estate located in the US and Mexico. HCP is well diversified across healthcare property types: senior housing (35% of NOI), skilled-nursing facilities (3%), medical office (13%), life science/labs (15%), and hospitals (6%). HCP has USD 22bn in AUM and a well-balanced portfolio of 1163 properties. Company has generated ~16% compound annual return since IPO 1985, and has 29 years of consecutive dividend growth. Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and manages 27 malls for external owners. In addition the company owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2 that are not Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76% of income from malls; 24% from commercial real estate, mainly office/retail. Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange in 1983. Gross (inclusive JV) lettable space: Shopping malls 1.0’’m2 and commercial estate 263’m2. Diversified into Sweden in 3Q14 after buying 5 shopping malls of 122’m2 for NOK 3bn. Established in 1941, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese RE industry, successfully developing new business opportunities and establishing a dominant position. The company is an integrated RE firm involved in office leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of MF´s assets are located on other continents. Strong balance sheet after capitalisation (first in 23 years) in summer 2014. Good integrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different RE sub segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over time, in addition to other recurring earnings from commercial assets, to balance the volatility in the development segment. 18 Ønsker du mer informasjon? Se vår siste markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN m2 på våre hjemmesider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.