Transcript
SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport – august 2015
Hovedtrekk – august 2015 • SKAGEN Vekst* gjorde det litt svakere enn referanseindeksen i august. Fondet endte falt 4,4 prosent forrige måned, mens referanseindeksen var ned 3,4 prosent i den samme perioden. • De beste bidragsyterne var Kia, Norwegian Air og Lundbeck. De vakeste bidragsyterne var Carlsberg, AirAsia og CitiGroup. • SKAGEN Vekst økte størrelsen på flere poster gjennom markedsuroen – spesielt gjaldt det poster som var hardest rammen på grunn av sin eksponering mot vekstmarkedene. Blant disse finner en Carlsberg, som ble tynget av svakere salgstall over sommeren. Vi brukte også august til å selge oss ut av Korea Re på sterke kurser og etter at selskapet har vært med oss i lang tid. • Siden 1 september i fjor har fondet steget 6,9 prosent, mens referanseindeksen er opp 26,6 prosent. Vi er selvsagt ikke fornøyd med dette. I ettertid skulle vi ha solgt oss raskere ut av Norge, som er ned 3 prosent, inkludert utbytter. • Vi vil også framover holde oss til SKAGENs investeringsfilosofi – den smale sti – og fortsette å plukke selskaper som er feilpriset. Vi mener det fortsatt er den beste oppskriften på langsiktig og vedvarende meravkastning.
* Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer. 2
Avkastning, august 2015
A
August QTD Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* SKAGEN Vekst A -4,4% -2,9% 0,0% 6,9% 14,5% 8,3% 7,3% 14,4% Referanseindeks** -3,4% 1,1% 10,7% 26,6% 21,3% 15,9% 9,3% 10,5% Relativ avkastning -1,0% -4,1% -10,7% -19,7% -6,8% -7,6% -2,0% 3,8% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember 1993. **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 3
Årlig avkastning siden start* (%)
SKAGEN Vekst* (NOK) Benchmark Index** (NOK)
77 66
19 7
48
48 38 40 32 32 32
46
39 32 29 32
65 48 25
15 12
10 11
-6 -27
-2 -2 -1 -17 -22
15 16
10 12
29 15
23 11 0
-9 -20 -31 -44 -54
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hittil i 2015 Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 01.12.1993. **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 4
Markedsutvikling i august 2015 i NOK (%) Russland Polen Danmark Italia Østerrike Canada MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Ungarn Sverige Thailand Mexico Sør-Korea USA (S&P 500) Verdensindeksen Japan Belgia SKAGEN Vekst A Spania Finland Sveits USA (Nasdaq) Frankrike Taiwan Tyskland Storbritannia Sør-Afrika Nederland Vekstmarkedsindeksen Norge India Indonesia Tyrkia Singapore Hong Kong Kina (Hong Kong) Brasil Kina (lokal) 5
-1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -6 -7 -7 -9 -9 -10 -11 -12 -13
-8 -8
Markedsutvikling hittil i 2015 i NOK (%) Danmark Ungarn Russland Italia Japan Sveits Frankrike USA (Nasdaq) Østerrike Belgia MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Nederland Finland Kina (lokal) Sverige Verdensindeksen USA (S&P 500) Tyskland Storbritannia Spania Sør-Korea Hong Kong Norge India Mexico SKAGEN Vekst A Polen Sør-Afrika Taiwan Vekstmarkedsindeksen Thailand Canada Singapore Kina (Hong Kong) Indonesia Tyrkia Brasil 6
34 33 22 21 20 16 15 13 13 11 11 11
5 5 4 3 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 -7 -7 -20 -24
-14
2
9 9 8 8 8 8 7
Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo aug. 2015 SKAGEN Vekst har 55% investert i de nordiske landene
Weight in
Price
P/E
P/E
P/E
P/B
Kurs-
portfolio
Column2
2015e
2016e
2017e
siste
mål
Samsung Electronics
6,5 %
870 000
6,1
5,6
5,1
0,8
1 500 000,0
Norwegian Air Shuttle
6,0 %
372
16,2
9,8
7,4
6,1
500,0
Continental AG
6,1 %
189
12,4
10,3
9,1
3,5
298,0
Citigroup
5,6 %
53
8,9
7,3
6,6
0,8
77,0
Norsk Hydro
5,4 %
29
10,4
9,6
8,2
0,8
50,0
Teliasonera AB
4,9 %
48
11,9
11,9
12,3
1,9
60,0
Danske Bank A/S
4,8 %
206
11,1
11,6
11,4
1,4
255,0
Carlsberg
4,5 %
502
14,4
11,5
10,0
1,5
822,0
ABB
4,3 %
163
14,8
10,8
9,6
2,9
250,0
Philips
3,9 %
23
19,6
16,4
11,5
1,9
30,0
Vektet topp 10
51,9 %
11,0
9,4
8,2
1,38
49 %
Vektet topp 35
90,5 %
11,0
9,5
8,3
1,19
62 %
15,5
14,1
12,8
2,00
Referanse indeks
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Største bidragsyterne i august 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Selskap
NOK millioner
Kia Motors Corporation
33
##### Carlsberg A/S
-41
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
28
##### AirAsia BHD
-32
H Lundbeck A/S
19
##### Citigroup Inc
-29
Solar A/S
8
##### Norsk Hydro ASA
-26
Danske Bank A/S
6
##### Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
-26
PhotoCure ASA
2
##### Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
-23
Goodtech AS
2
##### Teliasonera AB
-21
Nippon Seiki Co Ltd
1
##### Investment AB Kinnevik
-18
Siem Offshore Inc
0
##### Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA
-18
TTS Group ASA
0
##### Solstad Offshore ASA
-17
Total verdiskapning i august 2015: NOK -372 millioner
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 8
Største bidragsytere i 3. kvartal 2015 Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Selskap
NOK millioner
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
68
1E+08 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
-67
Danske Bank A/S
45
4E+07 Norsk Hydro ASA
-64
H Lundbeck A/S
24
3E+07 Lundin Petroleum AB
-49
Kia Motors Corporation
23
2E+07 Carlsberg A/S
-42
Koninklijke Philips NV
19
2E+07 AirAsia BHD
-41
Citigroup Inc
12
2E+07 Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
-25
Solar A/S
11
1E+07 Continental AG
-25
OCI Co Ltd
9
1E+07 Solstad Offshore ASA
-20
Kemira OYJ
8
1E+07 FLSmidth & Co A/S
-19
Korean Reinsurance Co
7
1E+07 Volvo AB
-19
Total verdiskapning i 3. kvartal 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 9
NOK -236 millioner
Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
145
Selskap
NOK millioner
# Norsk Hydro ASA
-183
Danske Bank A/S
99
# AirAsia BHD
-108
Continental AG
59
# Solstad Offshore ASA
-102
Citigroup Inc
39
# Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
-71
Novo Nordisk A/S
32
# DOF ASA
-55
Volvo AB
29
# Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
-49
Nokian Renkaat OYJ
28
# Toshiba Corp
-47
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
27
# Siem Offshore Inc
-18
Sberbank of Russia
24
# Electromagnetic GeoServices AS
-16
Medistim ASA
24
# Rec Silicon ASA
-15
Totale verdiskapning hittil i 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 10
NOM 66 millioner
Viktigste endringer 3. kvartal 2015 Økte posisjoner
Reduserte posisjoner Q3
Q3
SKF AB
(Ny)
Localiza Rent a Car SA
(Ny)
Credit Suisse Group AG H Lundbeck A/S Oriflame Cosmetics AG Carlsberg A/S Golden Ocean Group Ltd Koninklijke Philips NV
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Korean Reinsurance Co OCI Co Ltd Royal UNIBREW A/S Norwegian Air Shuttle AS Danske Bank A/S Teliasonera AB H Lundbeck A/S Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Kia Motors Corporation Raiffeisen Bank International AG
(Ut) (Ut) (Ut)
Kjøp og salg, august 2015 Kjøp Carlsberg • Med den økte usikkerheten i finansmarkedene benyttet vi anledningen til å øke vår eierandel i det danske baserte globale bryggerikonsern Carlsberg. • Rapporten for andre kvartal sendte skjelvinger gjennom finansmarkedene ettersom kostnadsforbedringen ikke viste seg og aksjekursen falt.. Vi brukte muligheten til å øke posten.
Salg Korean Re • SKAGEN Vekst solgte seg helt ut av denne posten I løpet av sommeren. • Selv om selskapet har tatt store skritt mot å forbedre seg det siste året, synes dette nå være helt priset inn i verdsettelsen.
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Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk
Key earnings releases and corporate news, August 2015 Carlsberg (4.4%)
Carlsberg (4.4% ) 2Q report sends the stock down by 12% - What’s in the price and prospects? Investment thesis update Carlsberg, the Danish brewer, investment case core is; a stable earner with sub-par profitability to peers and Carlsberg is on route to be improved. The 2Q report sent jitters thru investors (and joy thru short sellers), as the cost improvement didn’t show up – on the contrary. New CEO joined in June 2015 and had almost no finger print on the investor dialogue, so the CFO was sent out in town to explain things. Carlsberg has made things very complex for themselves with 140 major brands and 500 sub-brands being sold in 3 regions and in more than 75 countries. For every 100 DKK in revenue Carlsberg make, they spend 50 DKK on production costs, while peers only spend 40-45 DKK. This is the single most important driver of value for the company and boils down to getting the production engineers and brewers work more efficiently. Conclusion – the report is a stone in the shoe in the short term, but re-running all numbers we get to a target of 800-900 DKK, which is 60% up a couple of years out if management delivers on their ambitions. Unpopular: yes - it’s shorted, few domestic institutions hold it and it’s perceived as ’Danish Ministry of Beer’. Sell-siders are 81% sell/hold. Perfect for SKAGEN. Under analyzed: no – 34 analysts – they see the obvious; a sub-par profitability company. They don’t look down the road and see the improvement until they are certain it’s a reality, so its a case of mis-analyzed in terms of time and potential profitability perspective. Undervalued: yes – For 81bn DKK you get a 4-5bn DKK net cash stream that can grow to 7-8bn DKK in 2018/19. It’s a well-known business model (make good beer and sell it) so execution risk on the way forward should be limited. Carlsberg has net debt of 34bn DKK (most of it from 2007 acquisition of Baltika in Russia), they pay 1.4bn DKK in dividend, so it will take them 6-8 years to become debt free (which would again lift net cash earnings by 1bn DKK per year), so good upside leverage.
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Key earnings releases and corporate news, August 2015 KIA Motors (3.9%)
KIA Motors (3,9%) Weak trend continues, especially in China. Investment case update Negative: Although wrong to spin too much on one month, we can conclude that it will be difficult to reach 2015 guidance above 3m cars. However, stock hammered last 6 months and trades below P/E 6x 2015 so some of this should be priced in. Expected improvement via new plant in Mexico next year not visible in stock price. Measured on price/sales and price/book the stock is below 2008 lows, so not much positive forward view. Unpopular: No, 80% of analysts have buy (although conviction in some of these recommendations can be discussed due to Korean broker practice). Under researched: No, 45 analyst covering the stock including bulge bracket internationals, but almost all have very short focus on company ability to produce earnings. Undervalued: Yes, trades below P/e 6x which is cheap compared to global peers above 10x. Valuation gap partly explained by the poor corporate governance . Case update details Kia July shipments: -11% Y/Y (Domestic + 14,8%, Export – 18,5%). China especially weak -33% but this offset by Slovakia-plant which grew 30% . YTD shipments down 2,6%, so likely only sell 2.85m cars in 2015 vs company guidance of 3.04m units
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Key earnings releases and corporate news, August 2015 Lundin Petroleum (2.5%)
Lundin Petroleum (2.2%) Disappointing Q2 report due to weak production. Investment case Negative, as they cut 2015 production guidance by 30%. The main reasons for the lowered production forecast are delayed first oil at Edvard Grieg and revised Brynhild production. Going forward, we expect a huge growth in production as well as cash flow due to Grieg and Sverdrup. They see upside in Grieg volumes and they also see potential lower capex on Sverdrup. Dividend from next year with oil price above USD 65. Lundin is very much about Sverdrup, and we see our estimate of USD 9 per barrel as a conservative level as this asset is very attractive to oil majors. Target unchanged at SEK 200. Unpopular: Yes, 67% hold/sell Under analyzed: No Undervalued: Yes, as we see Sverdrup asset as very attractive to oil majors. Facts Q2 2015 production of 28.900 boepd. Alvheim underperformed (gas compressor) as well as Brynhild (FPSO efficiency). 2015 production guidance down to 32.000 boepd. Assumes improving Brynhild performance, but below original forecast. Edvard Grieg first oil late 2015, and exit rate for 2015 is 75.000 boepd after Grieg start up.
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Key earnings releases and corporate news, August 2015 AirAsia (0.6%)
AirAsia (0.6%) Recapitalization of affiliates still in focus Investment case update Malaysian AirAsia is one of the largest low-cost carriers in Asia in terms of fleet size and passengers carried. The company owns interests in affiliates Thai AirAsia, Indonesia AirAsia and Philippines AirAsia. There are currently several issues hanging over the company. Concerns center on the significant amount due from its historically loss-making affiliates, the pricing of subleasing agreements between the parent and the affiliates and a negative equity position in its Indonesian unit. The company reported a net income number of MYR243M including several extraordinary items indicating a lower recurring profit picture. The company benefitted from sharply lower oil prices in the quarter (down 18% Y/Y). One bright spot was the contribution from Thai AirAsia which reversed its loss from last year. However, net loss increased in the Indonesian unit but was reduced somewhat at the Philippine unit. The company needs to urgently address the issues around its affiliates, and management presented a plan to recapitalize its Indonesian unit via convertible stock/bonds and a possible equity injection in the Philippines unit. Recent ringgit moves is a cause of a concern, since debt is outstanding mostly in USD. Unpopular: It is a strong understatement that this stock is unpopular at this stage. The highlighted concerns with potential accounting and solvency issues have produced a sharp sell-off in the shares. However, most analysts are sticking to its buy rating (70%). Under analyzed: 18 analysts are covering the name and most seem convinced the company will be able to recapitalize its affiliates and successfully address issues. Undervalued: The uncertainties are many, but we believe the equity is potentially trading below its NAV even if we adjust for the outstanding balances with its affiliates. On headline earnings numbers, the equity is trading at less than 5x forward EPS numbers, but this is clearly less relevant with ongoing solvency issues. Fact Total revenues were more or less unchanged from a year ago for the quarter. On the cost side there was a sharp fall in aircraft fuel expenses (-18% Y/Y) as the company is largely unhedged benefitting from lower energy prices. A large negative swing in foreign FX from last year, as the MYR weakened significantly, helped bringing down net income to MYR243M (367M a year ago). Load factor was maintained at 80%. Passengers carried increased 7% Y/Y.
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The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas – solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is becoming stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term Continental’s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2014 flew 24m .passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in October 1998. Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people.
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The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst (continued) Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region. History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe’s fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile phone operators in Turkey and Russia. Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region and is also active in Ireland. After an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with high loan losses and a sub-optimal cost structure. In 2012 a new management group began to clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future. Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water and
wine. ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees. Philips NV is a global leader in medical systems (scanners), consumer appliances and lightning. Philips’ historic focus has been on long-lasting light bulbs, but over the years the group has divested of light bulbs and introduced many other activities in its portfolio. Philips also has a clear set of financial priorities as to how to manage the group.
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For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.
