Skagen Vekst Statusrapport – Juni 2015

Transcript

SKAGEN Vekst Statusrapport – juni 2015 Hovedtrekk – juni 2015 • SKAGEN Vekst* var ned 2,1 prosent i juni noe som var mer enn fondets sammensatte referanseindeksen som var ned 1,8 prosent. • Målt i NOK var de største positive bidragsyterne i juni Norwegian, Lundin og Continental. Største negative bidragsytere var Norsk Hydro, Samsung og Air Asia. • SKAGEN Vekst gjorde noen endringer i porteføljen og gikk inn i Golden Ocean da aksjene ble mottatt fra vårt innehav i Frontline 2012. Fondet solgte seg ut av den japanske toalettprodusenten Toto og Bank Norwegian etter veldig god utvikling. • SKAGEN Vekst topp 10 posisjoner har en vektet oppside på 37 prosent på nåværende verdier. Fondet har en interessant liste med kandidater, bevist av det faktum at fondets topp 35 selskaper er forventet å øke med mer enn 47 prosent over de neste 2-3 årene gjennom stigende aksjekurs og utbyttebetalinger. • For 2015 og 2016 forventer vi at selskapene i porteføljen viser en årlig gjennomsnittlig inntjeningsvekst på 20 prosent, noe som tilsier at det er rom for positiv kursutvikling – uavhengig av om verdsettelsesmultiplene øker eller ikke. * Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer. 2 Avkastning, juni 2015 A Juni SKAGEN Vekst A Referanseindeks** Relativ avkastning QTD -2,1% -1,8% -0,4% Hittil i år 1 år 3 år 5 år 10 år Siden start* -1,4% 3,0% 9,1% 15,5% 9,6% 8,6% 14,6% -2,8% 9,5% 24,1% 22,4% 16,6% 10,4% 10,5% 1,4% -6,5% -15,0% -6,9% -7,0% -1,7% 4,1% Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember 1993. **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 3 Årlig avkastning siden start* (%) SKAGEN Vekst* (NOK) Benchmark Index** (NOK) 77 66 19 7 48 48 38 40 32 32 32 46 39 32 29 32 65 48 25 15 12 10 11 -6 -27 -2 -2 -1 -17 -22 15 16 10 12 29 23 15 3 9 -9 -20 -31 -44 -54 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hittil i 2015 Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 01.12.1993. **Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX). 4 Markedsutvikling juni 2015 i NOK (%) Brasil India Thailand Japan Sør-Afrika Mexico Tyrkia Belgia Verdensindeksen USA (S&P 500) Singapore Spania Danmark Finland Frankrike MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Sør-Korea USA (Nasdaq) Italia Vekstmarkedsindeksen Ungarn Tyskland Russland SKAGEN Vekst A Nederland Canada Hong Kong Norge Taiwan Sverige Storbritannia Polen Sveits Østerrike Kina (Hong Kong) Indonesia Kina (lokal) 5 3 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 -7 -5 1 Markedsutvikling så langt i 2015 i NOK (%) Kina (lokal) Ungarn Russland Danmark Japan Hong Kong Italia Kina (Hong Kong) Sveits Sør-Korea Frankrike MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic Østerrike Nederland USA (Nasdaq) Norge Taiwan Verdensindeksen Vekstmarkedsindeksen Tyskland Belgia Storbritannia Sverige Finland USA (S&P 500) India Sør-Afrika Thailand Mexico Spania Singapore SKAGEN Vekst A Polen Canada Brasil Indonesia Tyrkia 6 39 27 27 24 21 19 17 16 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 0 -2 -5 -7 -10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 Største bidragsyterne i juni 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Norwegian Air Shuttle AS 36 ##### Norsk Hydro ASA -50 Lundin Petroleum AB 22 ##### Samsung Electronics Co Ltd -46 Continental AG 18 ##### AirAsia BHD -38 Citigroup Inc 12 ##### Solstad Offshore ASA -23 Danske Bank A/S 8 ##### Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA -17 Teliasonera AB 7 ##### Koninklijke Philips NV -16 Oriflame Cosmetics AG 7 ##### DOF ASA -14 Credit Suisse Group AG 6 ##### Kia Motors Corporation -13 Frontline 2012 Ltd 4 ##### SAP SE -12 Bonheur ASA 1 ##### Volvo AB -11 Total verdiskapning i juni 2015: NOK -199 millioner Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 7 Største bidragsytere i 2. kvartal 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK millioner Norwegian Air Shuttle AS 133 Selskap 1E+08 Norsk Hydro ASA NOK millioner -118 Lundin Petroleum AB 44 4E+07 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd -86 Danske Bank A/S 30 3E+07 Toshiba Corp -62 Carlsberg A/S 22 2E+07 AirAsia BHD -52 Golar LNG Ltd 20 2E+07 Casino Guichard Perrachon SA -30 Citigroup Inc 16 2E+07 Koninklijke Philips NV -22 Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA 14 1E+07 Solstad Offshore ASA -20 Ganger Rolf ASA 11 1E+07 Rec Silicon ASA -20 SBI Holdings Inc 11 1E+07 Teliasonera AB -18 Korean Reinsurance Co 10 1E+07 SAP SE -15 Total verdiskapning i 2. kvartal 2015: Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 8 NOK -123 millioner Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015 Største positive bidragsytere Selskap Største negative bidragsytere NOK millioner Selskap NOK millioner Continental AG 84 # Norsk Hydro ASA Norwegian Air Shuttle AS 77 # Solstad Offshore ASA -82 Carlsberg A/S 54 # AirAsia BHD -67 Danske Bank A/S 54 # DOF ASA -52 Lundin Petroleum AB 51 # Toshiba Corp -45 Volvo AB 48 # Kia Motors Corporation -36 Novo Nordisk A/S 32 # Casino Guichard Perrachon SA -24 SBI Holdings Inc 29 # Siem Offshore Inc -18 Nokian Renkaat OYJ 28 # Eidesvik Offshore ASA -11 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 27 # Electromagnetic GeoServices AS -11 Totale verdiskspning hittil i 2015: Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning 9 NOM 302 millioner -119 Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo juni 2015 SKAGEN Vekst har 54,8% investert i de nordiske landene Vekt i Pris porteføljen P/E P/E P/B Kurs- 2014e 2015e 2016e trailing mål Samsung Electronics 7,0 % 993 000 6,3 5,8 5,9 0,9 1 500 000 Norwegian Air Shuttle 6,2 % 325 NEG 10,5 8,6 5,4 340 Continental AG 6,1 % 213 17,9 13,7 11,9 4,0 275 Norsk Hydro 5,8 % 33 25,4 9,4 8,3 0,9 58 Citigroup 5,2 % 55 12,0 9,2 8,0 0,8 75 Teliasonera AB 5,0 % 49 14,6 12,4 12,2 1,9 70 Danske Bank A/S 4,8 % 197 15,5 11,7 11,5 1,3 205 Carlsberg 4,5 % 608 18,7 16,0 13,5 1,8 750 ABB 4,2 % 174 19,3 14,4 12,4 3,1 250 Kia Motors Vektet gjennomsnitt topp 10 Vektet gjennomsnitt topp 35 3,6 % 45 300 6,2 6,3 6,1 0,8 75 000 52,4 % 15,3 9,7 8,9 1,39 37 % 90,6 % 16,7 10,8 9,3 1,29 47 % 17,5 15,2 13,8 2,28 Referanseindeksen 10 P/E Kjøp og salg, juni 2015 Kjøp Golden Ocean Group • Som et spesialutbytte til aksjonærene i Frontline 2012 ble de underliggende aksjene i GOGL fordelt ut til aksjonærene. • Selskapet eier en av verdens største og mest moderne flåte med bulkskip. På samme tid som fraktratene nærmer seg sitt laveste nivå noensinne og synes å være nær bunnen. • Aksjen handles til en rabatt mot skipsverdier som ikke har vært lavere på 15 år. Salg Bank Norwegian • SKAGEN Vekst solgte seg helt ut av sin beholdning i Norwegian Finance Holding ASA (Bank Norwegian). • Dette var de siste aksjene fondet hadde igjen etter det gradvis har redusert beholdningen over de siste par kvartalene. • Investeringen har vært eksepsjonelt bra og har steget 7,5 ganger siden den første investeringen ble gjort før finanskrisen. 11 Viktigste endringer 2. kvartal 2015 Økte poster Reduserte poster Q2 Q2 Credit Suisse Group AG (Ny) Elekta AB (Ny) Solar A/S (Ny) H Lundbeck A/S (Ny) Golden Ocean Group Ltd (Ny) Investment AB Kinnevik Carlsberg A/S Kia Motors Corporation Kemira OYJ Norsk Hydro ASA AirAsia BHD Continental AG Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Citigroup Inc Teliasonera AB Danske Bank A/S ABB Ltd YIT Oyj 12 Toshiba Corp (Ut) Nokian Renkaat OYJ (Ut) Toto Ltd (Ut) Novo Nordisk A/S (Ut) Norwegian Finance Holding ASA (Ut) Stolt-Nielsen Ltd (Ut) Sparebanken Øst (Ut) Agrinos AS (Ut) Royal UNIBREW A/S Koninklijke Philips NV SAP SE Korean Reinsurance Co Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Sberbank of Russia Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%) Sektorfordeling Geografisk fordeling Fond 8 Energi Råvarer 6 Asia DM 7 6 Asia EM 21 Kapitalvarer, service og transport 16 13 Inntektsavhengige forbruksvarer 11 8 4 Medisin 17 Bank og finans 11 11 7 Telekom Kontanter 13 20 10 1 0 Latin Amerika 0 1 Midtøsten og Afrika 0 1 23 Informasjonsteknologi Nyttetjenester 13 Europe EM 13 7 Nord Amerika 2 55 50 Norden 1 0 Oceania Kontanter Nordiske i SKAGEN Vekst 28 5 0 Indeks 4 Europe DM ekskl. Norden 10 Defensive konsumvarer 2 5 0 1 1 0 Finland Norway Sweden Denmark 1% 22% 20% 12% Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper - på engelsk Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015 Samsung Electronics (7.2%) Shareholder activism hitting Korean chaebol Implications for Investment Case: We do not know how this will end (requires 2/3 approval at EGM on 17 July from shares attending), but this is indeed positive as it is the first recent step to challenge governance oversteps by the large chaebols which are now restructuring corporate structure (or spaghetti ownership system) ahead of generational translation. This is a “cheap” way for the Lee family to gain control of a big position in Samsung Electronics without paying a premium. If this does not work out, they might have to buy Samsung shares in the market. The move by Elliot, if successful in any way (i.e. changed terms etc.) would have positive implications. The National Pension Service owns 9.98% of C&T. Their voting would be important and also signal their willingness to protect the population up against the chaebols. Summary: Elliot Associates (largest activist fund in the world) last week disclosed ownership of a 7.12% stake in Samsung C&T now worth USD 760m. C&T is in a merger process with Cheil Industries. Both companies are part of the Samsung chaebol, but the Lee family has a much higher holding in Cheil, de facto majority. Elliot said the merger term is “neither fair to nor in the best interest of Samsung C&T shareholders”. The clue to this deal is that C&T owns 18m ord. shares in Samsung Electronics or 12.2% of ord. shares and 10.6% of capital worth KRW 24tr. NAV of C&T is around KRW 111k while share price pre-Elliot announcement was KRW 63k. 15 Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015 Bonheur/Ganger Rolf (1.7%) 16 The stock market is not efficient Investment case update Our investments in the Fred Olsen twins, BON/GRO, has been very disappointing the last couple of years. We underestimated the collapsing driller/rig market, which used to be the main asset (Fred Olsen Energy FOE NO) in the twins. However, the discount to NAV in this holding company has been huge and should be seen as the main reason why we kept it in the portfolio. Today’s news is sort of a game changer when it comes to valuation of the companies. They announced sale of 49% of the UK onshore wind farm portfolio. BON/GRO will receive NOK 3bn in cash, and if we calculate on Bonheur’s hand; BON will receive NOK 2.2bn or NOK 54 per share vs todays stock price of NOK 58. Unpopular: yes, it is hated all over the place. Under analyzed: yes, does not exist a single report from sell side analysts Undervalued: yes, as all focus has been on the driller assets (FOE NO), rest of assets are totally forgotten (renewable, shipping/offshore wind and cruise) Fact TRIG (The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited) will acquire 49% of Fred Olsen Wind Limited (FOWL). TRIG will subscribe for GBP 142mill in new shares and also provide FOWL with two loans – totaling GBP 104mill. The total cash consideration is GBP 246mill, implying an EV for FOWL of ca GBP 752mill (NOK 9.3bn) The cash proceeds will be used to repay loans provided by Fred Olsen Renewables (50/50 owned BON/GRO) and to pay a special dividend to Fred Olsen Renewables. TRIG is buying into a company which have 433MW installed capacity and EBITDA(2014) of GBP 52 mill. They are paying EV/EBITDA of 14.4 and EV/EBIT 41. Fred Olsen Renewables will after this transaction be a holder of 51% of FOWL, 100% owner of remaining UK onshore farm development and the investments in Norway and Sweden. Proceeds will in part be utilized for projects as renewable energy is a key part of the investment activities in BON/GRO. Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015 Air Asia (1.1%) Are they cooking the books? Investment case update Air Asia has a net gearing of 2.5, down from 4.2 a few years ago (when they established Air Asia Thailand). The CEO Tony Fernandes told us they are confident of bringing the ratio down to 2 by year end. He also said they are raising USD 100mill each for the Indonesian and Philippine associates by bringing in new investors via convertible bonds as a lead up to IPOs in 2017. The company said both these associates will become profitable this year. Air Asia might be in some kind of trouble, but so far we will stick to this investment. If they have to do full impairment of total receivables (due to leases not paid from associates) the company will still have a net asset value above todays share price. They own 128 aircrafts, which at a conservative price has a value 1.5x net debt. We have to monitor this investment closely going forward. Unpopular: no, 19 out of 26 analysts have a buy rating Under analyzed: no Undervalued: yes, as long as they have not overstated income it is. If they have to do full impairment, it is not Fact The negative analyst report from GMT sent Air Asia’s share price down the drain. The report accuses Air Asia of milking transactions with its money-losing associates in the Philippines and Indonesia, such as plane lease and maintenance deals to boost mother’s operating cash flow. Due to the associates currently are not able to pay their bills to the mother, Air Asia is extending significant capital to them – essentially gearing up – funding its own profit and operating cash flow, the report said. . 17 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas – solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future. Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2014 flew 24m passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach. Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is . becoming stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term Continental’s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial growth. Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a 34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people. Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers Group in October 1998. 18 The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst continued Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region. History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe’s fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile phone operators in Turkey and Russia. Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region and is also active in Ireland. After an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with high loan losses and a sub-optimal cost structure. In 2012 a new management group began to clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future. Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water and wine. ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees. Kia Motors Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. 19 For mer informasjon, vennligst se: Siste Markedsrapport Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap. SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.