Tape Drive And Tape Automation Market Segmentation

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Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation Gartner Dataquest Guide Publication Date: 2 April 2003 GARTNER WORLDWIDE HEADQUARTERS NORTH AMERICA EUROPE ASIA/PACIFIC Corporate Headquarters 56 Top Gallant Road Stamford, CT 06904-2212 U.S.A. Tel: +1-203-316-1111 Fax: +1-203-316-6300 European Headquarters Tamesis The Glanty Egham Surrey, TW20 9AW United Kingdom Tel: +44-1784-431611 Fax: +44-1784-268980 Asia/Pacific Headquarters Level 7 40 Miller St. North Sydney, NSW 2060 Australia Tel: +61-2-9459-4600 Fax: +61-2-9459-4601 West Coast Headquarters 251 River Oaks Parkway San Jose, CA 95134-1913 U.S.A. Tel: +1-408-468-8000 Fax: +1-408-954-1780 Latin America Headquarters Gartner do Brasil Av. Nacoes Unidas 12901 19 andar-Torre Oeste CEP 04578-903 Sao Paulo SP Brasil Tel: +55-11-3443-1509 Fax: +55-11-3443-1401 ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. JAPAN Japan Headquarters Aobadai Hills 6F 7-7, Aobadai, 4-chome Meguro-ku Tokyo 153-0042 Japan Tel: +81-3-3481-3670 Fax: +81-3-3481-3644 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation Gartner Dataquest Guide Publication Date: 2 April 2003 Author Fara Yale This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: HARD-WW-GU-0010 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: +1-203-316-1111 +44-1784-268819 +61-7-3405-2582 +81-3-3481-3670 www.gartner.com Entire contents © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. 113943 Table of Contents Page 1. Segmentation and Definitions......................................................................................................................... 1 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation....................................................................... 1 Regional Definitions..................................................................................................................................... 4 Line Item Definitions ................................................................................................................................... 5 Market Estimates and Market Share Methodology................................................................................. 6 2. Basic Underlying Forecast Assumptions....................................................................................................... 9 Price Trend Assumptions ............................................................................................................................ 9 Shipment Forecasting: Based on Demand or Supply? ............................................................................ 9 Appendix A — Glossary of Terms ...................................................................................................................... 11 List of Tables Table A-1 Page Report Glossary ...................................................................................................................................... 11 ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 ii Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 Chapter 1 Segmentation and Definitions This is a guide to the 2002 Tape Drive Market Share, 2002 Tape Automation Market Share, 2003 Tape Drive Forecast and 2003 Tape Automation Forecast reports, which contain detailed information on Gartner Dataquest's views and projections for the computer tape drive and tape automation markets. Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation A tape drive records and stores computer data on removable magnetic media. A tape drive is synonymous with a tape transport. It consists of the mechanism that controls the movement of the media past the read/write heads, the electronics that control the movement of the tape and the processes required for recording or reading data. For products in which the drive-level interface is embedded or integrated with the drive, the definition of a tape drive also includes this interface. Gartner Dataquest defines the computer tape drive industry as the collective body of companies manufacturing digital magnetic tape drives for the recording and storage of computer data. Historically, tape drives that were used in noncomputer applications were not included in the review of this market and industry. However, as new applications for tape products continue to develop, such as those that incorporate the use of tape drives for storing digital video and audio, these markets are also being included as part of this industry, providing that these applications are driven by a computer system or server. Likewise, Gartner Dataquest defines the tape automation industry as the collective body of companies that manufacture tape automation systems. A tape automation system is a single or multidrive system that automates the handling of tape cartridges by using robotics to pick and place cartridges to or from cartridge slots, bins or magazines and transport them to and from one or more tape drives. The drive(s), cartridges, robotics, and library management and control unit are all included in a complete enclosed system that attaches directly to a server or a network. Autoloaders contain only a single tape drive, and they can sit on a tabletop, be integrated internal to a server or be mounted into a rack cabinet. A tape library is capable of containing two or more tape drives, and library configurations range from tabletop units containing 10 or fewer cartridges to cabinets of various styles that can be floor-standing units or be integrated in a rack cabinet. Gartner Dataquest's segmentation of tape drives is based on four main factors: the type of recording methodology or tape format, the type of cartridge used with the drive, the physical form factor of the drive and the drive's selling price. As new technologies enter the market, Gartner Dataquest attempts to incorporate them into the existing segmentation based on these features; we also take into consideration competing technologies. Because of changes in the tape drive segmentation from the addition of new technologies and formats, we discontinued the grouping of many individual segments into a larger subgroup, beginning with the 1999 report. Tape automation systems (tape autoloaders and tape libraries) are segmented according to the type of tape drive technology that is incorporated into the autoloader or library, and therefore Gartner Dataquest's tape drive segments also apply to the Tape Automation Market Share and Tape Automation Forecast reports. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1 2 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation The current segments are as follows: ■ 1/4-inch cartridge: data cartridge — 1/4-inch data cartridge tape drives use media that is 0.25-inch or 0.315-inch wide. Data are recorded in a linear, serpentine fashion on tracks that are parallel to the edge of the tape. The tape supply and takeup reels and the tape guides and tape path are contained within the removable cartridge. These drives conform to a 5.25-inch half-height or full-height form factor and use data cartridge media. Products in this segment were historically known as DC-600 and DC-6000 drives. Beginning in 1999, this category became solely composed of the Tandberg Data products, which carry the brand and technology name SLR. ■ Minicartridge — These drives typically conform to a standard 3.5-inch or 5.25-inch half-height form factor; some of the 3.5-inch form factor products in this category are configured to fit in a 5.25-inch half-height drive slot. These drives use media that is 0.25-inch or 0.315-inch wide. Data are recorded in a linear, serpentine fashion on tracks that are parallel to the edge of the tape. The tape supply and takeup reels and tape guides and tape path are contained within the removable cartridge. Various types of data cartridges are used with these drives. Drives in this category primarily consist of products that are based on Imation's Travan technology. Beginning in 1999, the OnStream drives that record data using the company's ADR technology were also included in this segment. ■ Helical scan tape drives — These drives record data on tracks that are written at an angle on the tape rather than longitudinally. The read/write heads in these drives are mounted on a spinning drum, which is known as a rotary head. Typically, the tape supply and takeup reels are contained within the cartridge. In most of these drives, the tape is pulled into the drive and is wrapped partially around the drum. The tape path is part of the device. Helical scan tape drives are subdivided into the following three product categories, based on the type of media or cartridge and the width of the tape: ❑ 4mm helical scan — This class of products had its roots in consumer audio technology. The technology was upgraded for recording data in computer environments, and because the consumer market did not develop into anything significant, the drives were then designed specifically for use in computer storage applications. This class of tape includes drives that use 4mm-wide media. Products in this category are commonly referred to as DAT drives. Drives in this segment conform to the DDS format that was developed by HP and Sony. ❑ 8mm helical scan — This class of products initially included drives that were based on 8mm video (camcorder) technology that was upgraded for computer data storage. However, for several years, it has been composed of products that have been designed specifically for use in computer storage applications and that record data on 8mm-wide media. Products in this segment include the Exabyte 8mm helical scan drives (including drives based on its MammothTape technology) and the drives from Sony that use Sony's AIT format. Beginning in 1999, the Exabyte (formerly Ecrix) drives that use the company's VXA technology were incorporated into this segment. ❑ Other helical scan — This category includes all other drives that use helical scan recording and media with widths of 12mm and 19mm. Before 2001, this segment also included the StorageTek RedWood drives that record in a helical format on 0.5-inch-wide tape housed in a single-reel, half-inch cartridge package. StorageTek discontinued this line of drives in 2000. This segment now consists of Sony's DTF drives, and the Sony drives that use the D-1 format are also included. At one time, the DST drives from Ampex that use its D-2 method of recording were counted in this segment. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 Segmentation and Definitions 3 ■ ■ Half-inch cartridge drives — These drives record data on tape that is housed in a single-reel cartridge that measures approximately 4 x 5 x 1 inches. The tape path and a takeup reel are contained within the drive, and the tape is pulled into the drive for reading and writing. For most half-inch drives and technologies, data are recorded longitudinally by multiple heads. Several tracks of data are written simultaneously, and reading and writing is performed by all heads in parallel in a serial-serpentine (linear serpentine) fashion as the tape is moved in a forward or reverse direction in front of the heads. Sony's SAIT technology, which employs helical scan recording, but uses half-inch-wide tape housed in a "square" cartridge, is included under Gartner Dataquest's half-inch cartridge drives beginning with the 2003 forecasts. Half-inch cartridge drives have been segmented into three categories based on system attachment, recording method, and the price and size of the product: ❑ Half-inch cartridge: high-end 3480-90/3590/9840/9940 — This category includes drives that use parallel recording and linear serpentine recording techniques. Included in this class are drives that are compatible with the IBM 3480/3490 (18- or 36-track recording formats) and the IBM Magstar 3590 (or compatible) drives that record data on 128 tracks, 256 tracks or 384 tracks. StorageTek's 9840 products, which record on 288 tracks, were included in the shipment forecasts for this segment beginning in 1998. The StorageTek 9940 drives were added to this segment in 2000. Drives in this segment are typically attached to mainframes, supercomputers or high-end midrange servers or SANs. ❑ Half-inch cartridge: low-cost 3480/3490 — This category includes drives that use parallel 18-track or 36-track recording and are compatible with IBM's 3480/3490 recording formats. These drives are typically attached to low-end mainframes and midrange or smaller systems and are usually 19-inch rack-mount or tabletop designs. ❑ Small form factor half-inch cartridge/other data cartridge — This segment was renamed in 2001. It was previously called "other half-inch/data cartridge." This category includes drives that use linear serpentine recording, use half-inch-wide media housed in a "square" half-inch cartridge, and are not compatible with the 3480-90/3590/9840/9940 formats. The Sony SAIT helical scan technology products were added to this segment beginning with the 2003 forecasts because they use half-inchwide media housed in a cartridge similar to other products in this segment. SAIT is also generally viewed as competing with other technologies in this segment. These drives are primarily targeted for use with midrange system platforms. Products in this segment include drives that use Quantum's DLTtape technology, as well as its SDLT technology beginning in 2000. The Quantum DLT VS drives, which were originally developed by Benchmark prior to its acquisition by Quantum, are also included in this segment. Drives that use the LTO Ultrium technology, developed by Hewlett-Packard, IBM and Seagate, and use a linear serpentine method of recording on half-inch-wide media housed in a half-inch cartridge, were included in this segment, beginning with the 2000 forecasts. Because of its price range and target market, this category also includes the IBM Magstar MP drives that record data on tape housed in a dual-reel data cartridge (the Magstar MP drives are the "other data cartridge" part of the segment name). Half-inch reel-to-reel drives were previously segmented by transport type and linear density into the following three categories: ❑ Half-inch reel-to-reel: start-stop — This category includes all tension arm and vacuum column drives, as well as PE and GCR. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 4 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation ❑ Half-inch reel-to-reel: streaming, low density — This category includes PE with a recording density that is not greater than 3,200 bpi. ❑ Half-inch reel-to-reel: streaming, high density — This category includes GCR, 6,250 bpi. Because of the decreasing size of the half-inch reel-to-reel market, Gartner Dataquest discontinued forecasting this technology in the 1999 report. Regional Definitions The following major geographic regions are used for Gartner Dataquest's tape drive and tape automation segmentation. This regional segmentation may vary based on the technology being reported or the Gartner Dataquest office location. Other Gartner Dataquest Market Statistics documents, pertaining to other technology markets, may use a different regional segmentation. Estimates of regional shipments of tape products are based on the region in which the drives are consumed. Before the 2002 report, regions for the tape drive market consisted of four regions: North America, Europe (all of Europe), Japan and all other regions. The "all other regions" category included Asia/Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, Oceania and South America. Beginning with the 2002 report, we changed the regions for the tape drive market to better align them with the regional segmentation used in the market statistics for our RAID storage market as well as the regions used by our computer systems and server groups. The regions for tape drives are now broken out as follows: ■ North America — Includes the United States and Canada ■ EMEA ❑ Western Europe — Includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the rest of Western Europe (Cyprus, Iceland, Malta, Turkey and others) ❑ Eastern Europe — Includes Albania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the republics of the former Yugoslavia, the republics of the former USSR (including Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine), and others ❑ Middle East —Includes Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates ❑ South Africa ■ Japan — Single-country region ■ Asia/Pacific — Includes Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam ■ Latin America — Includes South America, Central America and the Caribbean ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 Segmentation and Definitions 5 Line Item Definitions The following metrics and definitions apply to how Gartner Dataquest views and analyzes the tape drive and tape automation markets: ■ EUAPP — The estimated average price that the final purchaser pays for a product inclusive of channel markups and discounts (commonly known as the street price). It is not necessarily (nor is it normally) representative of vendor list prices because of discounting or rebating at various channel levels or by the manufacturer. ■ FASP — The average factory selling price, including a combination of products sold on an OEM basis, as well as sales through alternate distribution and reseller channels or direct to the end user. It is a blended price of sales through all channels by the manufacturer. When a product is sold by a company's own sales force direct to an end user, the FASP and EUAPP would be one and the same. FASPs should be viewed as the ultimate amount of revenue received by a corporation for its tape drive products when the FASP is multiplied by the product unit shipments. When a corporation's factory ships drives to one of its companies or divisions located in another region, the FASP is intended to incorporate the per-drive revenue from sales in that region and not necessarily the price at which the factory sold the drive to the other regional entity or distribution center. ❑ Note — Software, tape cartridges, cleaning cartridges, host adapters or other accessories that may be bundled with a drive are not included in the FASP or the EUAPP. Host interface controllers that are not embedded with the drive are also not included in the FASP or EUAPP. If a controller is embedded within the drive package, it is included in the price of the drive because the two cannot be separated. It should be noted that FASPs and EUAPPs are the same in all regions. Gartner Dataquest does not adjust for regional pricing differences in the worldwide storage market statistics. ■ End-user revenue — The total of the EUAPP multiplied by unit shipments ■ Factory revenue — The total of the FASP multiplied by unit shipments ■ Unit shipments — The number of new drives or automation systems shipped, which is considered to have happened when the original manufacturer ships in response to a bona fide purchase order and recognizes revenue for that shipment from an OEM, end user, reseller or distributor. Drive or automation systems resold to a secondary market and products that have been refurbished after being returned from the field do not count as new shipments and are not included in the Gartner Dataquest's shipment estimates. Both new drives provided with systems and add-on drives are considered and included in the shipment estimates. ■ Tape drive shipments are counted by transport mechanisms — If a manufacturer packages two transports into one cabinet, that configuration constitutes two drives. ■ Installed base — The total number of drives in active use; the total number of shipments minus the total number of retirements ■ Retirements — The number of drives that are removed from active use. A drive is considered retired from the installed base if it is scrapped, returned to the manufacturer, resold to the secondary market or placed in storage. ■ Capacity — The maximum amount of uncompressed data that the drive is capable of storing on a single piece of removable media, expressed in MB or GB. Capacity is the native capacity of the drive without the use of data compression. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 6 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation ■ CAGR — A computed number used to average annual growth to a single absolute number over consecutive years ■ Year-to-year growth rate — The percentage calculated by dividing the current year by the previous year and subtracting one. Market Estimates and Market Share Methodology Gartner Dataquest utilizes primary vendor surveys and secondary sources to produce market share statistics data. Shipment and market share data as estimated by Gartner Dataquest are developed through primary research and secondary research to verify market size, shipment totals and pricing information. Gartner Dataquest's forecasts and analysis of the computer tape drive and automation markets are based on the following sources: ■ The economic climate and forecast and its relationship to the various computer categories used in conjunction with tape equipment, along with the consideration of other key variables that influence the industry. Economic factors that influence the production and timely delivery of tape drives or automation systems are also weighed. ■ Continual monitoring of technological developments, new and changing applications, and new and changing market participants and products. Efforts include extensive literature searches of relevant publications, specific survey work, and participation in corporate financial and product presentations and briefings. Factors such as a vendor's ability to ramp production, a company's ability to effectively market products and technologies, and the competitive climate at different times are also considered in the development of the forecasts. ■ Monitoring of various standards and format activities relating to tape drive technology and drive design ■ Periodic surveys and interviews of tape drive and tape automation system manufacturers, OEMs, end users, distributors and other industry participants. These surveys are conducted in person, by e-mail and by telephone. The storage worldwide group staff maintains a continuing dialogue with key participants throughout the industry. ■ Reviews of system configurations and analysis of computer system and server forecasts combined with consultation with Gartner Dataquest's computer systems' analysts ■ The positive or negative impact that other storage technologies may have on the market demand or the competitive climate for tape drives or tape automation systems ■ Information published by major industry participants ■ Government data or trade association data ■ Published product literature and price lists ■ Information and data from online or CD-ROM data banks and the World Wide Web ■ Reports from financial analysts ■ End-user surveys ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 Segmentation and Definitions 7 Gartner Dataquest believes that the estimates presented in this report are the most accurate and meaningful statistics available. However, despite the care taken in gathering, analyzing and categorizing the data in a meaningful way, careful attention must be paid to the definitions used in this document and the analyst's forecast assumptions when interpreting the estimates presented in this document. Various companies, government agencies and trade associations may use slightly different definitions of product categories, prices and regional groupings, or they may include different companies in their statistics or market segmentation. These differences should be kept in mind when making comparisons between data and numbers provided by Gartner Dataquest and those provided by other suppliers. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 8 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 Chapter 2 Basic Underlying Forecast Assumptions The major factors that influence the forecast for tape drives are primarily the competition among the various tape technologies and the time of market entry of each new-generation product on the various technology migration paths. A number of new tape technologies have been introduced during the past five years, and more new technologies will likely be introduced in the future. As the forecasts are generated, a number of assumptions are made relative to the entry of new higher-capacity, higher-performance products or product enhancements (including FASPs and EUAPPs); advancements in technology and succeeding generations of products; and the future market entry of some new tape technologies and recording formats. However, some future technologies and new products could not be fully considered or incorporated in the forecasts because information about them was not publicly known. The time of entry into the market also may not have been publicly known or may have been too indefinite for inclusion in the forecast. Other storage technologies that could present a threat to tape have been factored into the forecasts to the extent that information relative to these technologies would not compromise confidentiality agreements. Gartner Dataquest takes a conservative approach in its view of the level of market acceptance for most of the new tape technologies that were introduced in recent years. We believe it is best to be prudent until these technologies and the companies behind them can establish brand name recognition and demonstrate market demand, both in the OEM reseller channels and from end users. Price Trend Assumptions Average factory selling prices for tape drives and tape automation systems do not tend to follow a historic pattern, nor do they follow a pattern of continual decline. Projected average prices reflect an aggregation of factors, including future product generations, the entry and exit of vendors into and from the market, the entry of new products and technology, and the competitive environment among products and vendors. Shipment Forecasting: Based on Demand or Supply? When compiling a forecast, an inherent cause-and-effect relationship between supply and demand for a specific product type quickly becomes evident. If only the historical production levels of the industry participants are considered, the resulting analysis will merely reflect manufacturing capacity and inventory policies rather than specific demand. Similarly, if only user demand is projected, the results will not reflect manufacturing capabilities of suppliers or adjustments in industry supply to accommodate changing demand. Additionally, the availability of one type of device or system instead of another often leads to substitution and demand shifts. In an effort to address this problem, Gartner Dataquest integrates both projected user demand and the manufacturing abilities of industry participants into its forecasts. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 9 10 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation Pricing is also considered. If the demand for a product (a new technology, for example) is high or rapidly increasing, the average unit price may be increased to reflect the bidding of more buyers for fewer goods. Gartner Dataquest does not assume that the price of the product has a direct correlation with a product's cost; market conditions and competition are taken into account when examining product price and demand. In the process of collecting data and market statistics, Gartner Dataquest sometimes consolidates or revises the numbers for a particular company, model, series or industry. ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003 Appendix A Glossary of Terms Table A-1 lists the definitions of the acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. Table A-1 Report Glossary Acronym/Abbreviation Definition ADR Advanced Digital Recording AIT Advanced Intelligent Tape bpi bits per inch CAGR compound annual growth rate DAT digital audio tape DDS Digital Data Storage DTF Digital Tape Format EMEA Europe, Midde East andAfrica EUAPP end-user average purchase price FASP factory average selling price GB gigabyte GCR Group Code Recording LTO Linear Tape-Open MB megabyte OEM original equipment manufacturer PE Phase Encoded SAN storage area network SDLT Super DLTtape SLR Scalable Linear Recording Source: Gartner Dataquest (March 2003) ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 11 12 Tape Drive and Tape Automation Market Segmentation ©2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 April 2003