Technology/market Watch

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T E C H N O L O G Y N o v e m b e r 2 0 0 5 D A T A C O M M U N I C A T I / O M A R K E T t h r o u g h N S C O M P E W A T C H M a y 2 0 0 6 T E N C E C E N T E R Table of Contents 1.0 General Market Trends ..........................................................................3 2.0 Copper LAN Cabling ..............................................................................4 2.1 10-Gigabit ..........................................................................................4 2.2 PoE Plus .............................................................................................4 3.0 Power Line Communications .................................................................4 3.1 BPL.....................................................................................................5 4.0 Optical Technologies ..............................................................................5 4.1 10-Gigabit Ethernet ..........................................................................5 4.2 POF ....................................................................................................5 4.3 1310 nm VCSELs ..............................................................................6 4.4 10GBASE-LRM ................................................................................6 4.5 EDC ....................................................................................................6 4.6 Beyond 10-Gigabit ............................................................................6 5.0 FTTx........................................................................................................7 5.1 FTTD..................................................................................................8 6.0 Wireless ...................................................................................................8 7.0 Definitions of Acronyms.........................................................................9 2 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 1) Ethernet Virtual Private Line – a point-topoint VLAN-based service transported over shared network resources 2) Ethernet Virtual Private LAN – any-to-any service utilizing shared network resources. Carriers have increased the number of areas that Ethernet service is available and it is no longer a requirement to have fiber to access them. Traditional copper private lines can now be served by wide-area Ethernet. This document summarizes key advances in several specific technologies and markets that may impact Nexans’ Telecom LAN business. It is a direct result of research conducted during development of a Technology Roadmap. 1.0 General Market Trends There were two very significant events for LAN technology that happened in 2005. Gigabit Ethernet passed FAST Ethernet in number of modular switch ports deployed and driven by deployment of VoIP, wireless LAN APs and IP video cameras, PoE became a mainstream feature installed in networks. The figure below shows an example of a migrated Ethernet network. There is a current trend in the metro market for more optical storage technologies. Evidence of this is that ADVA, Ciena and Nortel have now become a part of EMC’s Select Partner Program. They are providing distance extension technology for ESCON, Fibre Channel and Gigabit Ethernet. According to the TIA, spending in the US telecom industry rose almost nine percent in 2005 to more than $850 billion. A projection for 2006 is that it will increase again by more than 10 percent. Hot markets within the industry include “wireless transport services, Internet access, public network equipment and professional services in support of public network and enterprise equipment.” One of the conclusions from the TIA study is that demand for fiber is up due to rising data traffic in the network and that in 2006, fiber revenue will climb to about half of what it was in 2000 and “will be a catalyst for growth rather tan for decline over the next four years.” Figure 1: Before and After Case Study of the Use of Managed Ethernet Access, Source: Level 3, 2006 OFC/NFOEC 2006 was held in March with much emphasis on FTTx technologies again. Other hot topics included tunable lasers and 40-Gigabit and beyond. Carriers still have focus on access and metro networks that are being upgraded in 2006 with longhaul upgrades scheduled for 2007 or 2008. Several research papers were presented detailing research into components that support speeds higher than 10Gbps. The demand for Ethernet Services is fueling what may become a paradigm shift in the public network. A “new, integrated form of access” is starting to emerge according to a recent study performed by Heavy Reading. Due to its low-cost, simplicity and flexibility, Ethernet is expected to slowly replace the traditional Frame Relay network over the next few years. There are two types of Ethernet delivery mechanisms – Ethernet over SONET (EOS) and Ethernet over MPLS (EOMPLS) . EOS supports: 1) Ethernet Private Line – a point-to-point Ethernet service transported over a SONET infrastructure 2) Ethernet Private LAN – a port-based service utilizing dedicated bandwidth EOMPLS supports: With rumblings of commercially available 40Gigabit SONET and development of 100-Gigabit Ethernet, is it time for telecom and Internet service providers to assess their installed fiber? According to a recent article on fibers.org written by Richard Ednay, technical director at Optical Technology Training, it is. Most of the current infrastructure has a mixture of various fiber types that may be dated and may not support even 10-Gigabit applications much less higher data rates. But today, carriers 3 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 hesitate to dig up the street to install new fiber so what is the solution? Take several critical measurements that will allow companies to ascertain if their installed fiber is sufficient: video inspection of connector end-faces, insertion-loss, OTDR, spectral attenuation, chromatic dispersion, polarization-mode dispersion and non-liner effects. 3.0 Power Line Communications The tenth International Symposium on Power Line Communications was held in March 2006. It was the first time the symposium was held in the United States and the first one held under the hospices of the IEEE. There were approximately 140 people in attendance for a two and a half day program that consisted of seven key note addresses, two panel sessions, two technical tracks containing 46 formal presentations of papers and a poster session with 17 displays. Topics included everything from automatic meter reading (AMR) for utility companies to broadband over power line (BPL) performance analysis. In an effort to extend Moore’s Law into the next decade, Intel has announced promising research that has produced a transistor that improves performance threefold over existing devices at a lower power level. It is made out of Indium animonide – a material that was pioneered by QinetiQ, Intel’s partner on this project. Mergers continued in the telecom market with the most recent being Alcatel and Lucent. This is expected to continue in 2006. The most interesting information about BPL that was gleaned from the presentations is that this technology is really only currently being used as a last mile/access solution – from the final transformer in the neighborhood to the home or business. The longhaul connection is still carried on fiber from the utility and backhauled into a Telco network or backhauled to the Telco network directly from the final transformer. More investigation into this topology needs to be conducted, but the major issue with running the data signals entirely on the power network seems to be related to how the signal can be passed through the high-voltage transformers. Since most utilities do not want to become Internet service providers, there is really not a large movement to resolve this issue. Another challenge the PLC community has is that there are several organizations that are working on standards that seem to have quite different requirements – IEEE, Universal Powerline Association (UPA), HomePlug, Open PLC European Research Alliance (OPERA) and Consumer Electronics Powerline Communications Alliance (CEPCA). The organizations are currently working toward “co-existence”, but the message from the power companies that was loud and clear is that they must eventually work towards interoperability. HomePlug seems to be much further developed and established in the market than any BPL solution is at the moment. 2.0 Copper LAN Cabling 2.1 10-Gigabit The IEEE ratified the IEEE 802.3an specification (10GBASE-T) in June. It is expected to be published in July. SMC Networks was the first to announce that they will be using Vativ technologies 10-Gigabit chip in order to offer switches that can run 10-Gigabit Ethernet over CAT5e cable. It is expected to run up to 10 meters. 2.2 PoE Plus Known as IEEE 802.3at, PoE plus is being developed to boost the amount of power that can be delivered to network devices. The figure below shows some details. Source: NetworkWorld 4 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 Following suit, 10-Gigabit Ethernet stackable switches have also started to appear. Broadcom, Extreme Networks, Foundry Networks, Force10 Networks and SMC have all released products. Cisco has not announced anything as of yet, but is expected to in the near future. 3.1 BPL The IEEE has officially started its project for Broadband over Power Line communications. The draft standard is known formally as IEEE P1901, Broadband over Power Line Networks: Medium Access Control and Physical Layer Specifications. To date, there is no published draft. 10GBASE-SR transceivers have now reached the price that is expected to enable the 10-Gigabit Ethernet market – just $300. This is good news for LOMF since long wavelength devices, which are typically used with SMF, are still hovering above $2,000 each. One of the leaders in BPL technology is Current Technologies LLC. It developed equipment that “lets data packets avoid the transformers that step down voltage from distribution wires to the low-voltage lines that run to houses.” The following figure shows the anticipated cost of networks in a “typical” 15-floor building. This was presented in an article for Cabling Business Magazine by Tony Irujo of OFS. While Current Technologies is one of the technology leaders in BPL, its sister company, Current Communications is the market leader in the US. It has around 50-thousand customers in Cincinnati, Ohio and network trials deployed in Maryland, Southern California and Hawaii. A pilot BPL project is being started in Westchester County, New York by Ambient Corporation. Funding was released in January and a contract was signed between Ambient, Consolidated Edison and New York State. 4.0 Optical Technologies 4.1 10-Gigabit Ethernet 10-Gigabit Ethernet optical ports seem to be on the rise. The chart below shows at least one analyst firm’s view of this emerging market. Fujitsu announced that it now has a 10-Gigabit DWDM XFP module. It has both SONET and Ethernet capability and is expected to be used in MAN applications. 4.2 POF At OFC, Nexans, in conjunction with Archom Technologies, Asahi Glass Company, Chromis Fiberoptics, PhyWorks and Picolight, announced a successful trial of 10 Gbps transmission on 100 meters of GIPOF. Fuji Photo Film Company announced that it plans to launch a new “flexible” POF made of an acrylic resin in 2007. It is expected to be used in data systems at a maximum speed of 10 Gbps and has a bending radius of 10 mm. Source: Communications Industry Researchers 10-Gigabit Ethernet NICs for servers have started to hit the market. NetXen will be supplying HP and IBM. IBM has released its eServerr X3 architecture that includes these cards. 5 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 There were several papers given at OFC 2006 regarding this subject. The figure below shows that some of the electronics needed for systems to run beyond 80-Gigabit are quite possible. This data was presented by a representative from SHF Communications Technologies AG from Germany. 4.3 1310 nm VCSELs Alight Technologies, a startup that recently acquired Infineon’s dilute-nitride VCSEL design, claims it has found a way to increase the output power of longwavelength VCSELs. The low output power inherent in the current version of 1310 nm VCSELs from Infineon, Picolight and OCP has hindered their widespread adoption. The company is aiming to revolutionize both 1310 nm and 1550 nm VCSELs by using its new phothonic-bandgap structure that it developed. (a) 4.4 10GBASE-LRM Several optical components vendors have started to release pre-production parts for LRM transponders. They include Emcore, Infineon, PhyWorks, ClariPhy among others. Finisar and Picolight are working on transponders that should be “production-ready” by the fall. (b) 4.5 EDC Not only is EDC becoming important in datacom networks, it is starting to rival the old dispersion compensation used in telecom markets. This could drastically reduce the cost of optical networking across all network types. Figure 2: SiGe electrical multiplexer eye patterns at (a) 80 Gbps and (b) 100 Gbps [1] 4.6 Beyond 10-Gigabit Lucent presented a similar paper at ECOC in late 2005 that detailed what it described as a breakthrough in 100 Gbps Ethernet-Over-Optical [2]. The IEEE has started a study group for a 100-Gbps standard, but no document is expected to be produced any earlier than 2010. There are two primary reasons for this that were sited by industry experts in a recent article in EE Times: 1) 10-Gigabit Ethernet really has not become widely accepted yet, so the market need just is not there and 2) Possible variants are many. Field trials with bit rates up to 160 Gbps have even been conducted and reported by T-Systems, Alcatel Research & Innovation, France Telecom and MPB Communications [3]. So far, at least two equipment manufacturers have announced commercially available 40-Gigabit DWDM transport systems – Huawei and Siemens. Both use chromatic and polarization mode dispersion compensation and non-NRZ signaling. The most important issue associated with the technology is that installed fiber MUST be characterized for many optical properties including not only CD and PMD, but those mentioned in the General Market Trends above. In a different light, Draka, in conjunction with Fraunhofer-Institute for Telecommunications, presented a paper detailing its work on 1300 nm MMF for 40-Gigabit applications [4]. 6 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 of the ONU would now be significantly less because it would have lower cost short wavelength transceivers and no demuliplexer. There would be many less demultiplexers because they could cover several homes. 5.0 FTTx A recent report from Broadbandtrends says that FTTP equipment revenue will reach more than $2billion by 2008. Most of these systems will be different implementations of PON. The following figure shows the expected progression of the different technologies. Heavy Reading released a report in early 2006 entitled “SONET/SDH-to- Ethernet Migration Strategies.” The findings show that most carriers world-wide are developing their tactical plans to move from SONET/SDH to Ethernet. Both Paris and Amsterdam announced new initiatives to build municipal fiber-to-the-home networks. The FTTH Council released new numbers for the US showing that FTTH subscribers are now more than 500,000. The following figures show the trends. In support of the growing opportunities that EPON has, the IEEE formed a study group to expand it. The group is focusing on a 10 Gigabit physical layer for EPON. Emtelle has introduced and actually won some business with it’s FibreFlow blown fiber system. It has installed it in Switerland’s Swisscom Fixnet rollout. AT&T is planning to pass more than three-million US homes in 2006 with it’s project Lightspeed FTTH initiative. At least two companies are looking to use MMF to reduce the cost of FTTH. Draka is advertising pointto-point SMF with MMF drop cabling and point-topoint SMF feeder and MMF drop in both Europe and Asia. NTT’s Access Network Service Systems Lab in Japan has developed what it calls a “low-cost optical-access system that could significantly advance the adoption of fiber-to-the-home.” NTT’s system combines PON and WDM. Instead of having a demultiplexer in each optical network unit (ONU) on the home, NTT’s system uses a demultiplexer that is shared with several ONUs. The ONU would be connected to the demultiplexer with multimode ribbon fiber that has the same number of fibers as wavelengths. Each wavelength would contain a different service. The demultiplexer would then have one SMF with all the services coming in and the MMF ribbon cable going out to the ONU. The cost 7 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 A comparison of WiMAX, WiFi and cellular are shown in the following figure. 5.1 FTTD Eric Pearson of Pearson Technologies Incorporated recently published a paper entitled “A Decision Maker’s Guide, Justifying Fiber to the Desk.” It takes a very defensive stand on FTTD, but makes some good points that need to be further investigated. However, the main point he makes is his definition of a FTTD network: “[It] is a fiber link from each PC, etc. to a central facility. All switches and electronics are in one location for the entire building. The only electronics not at this location are the NICs or media converters in or at the PC.” Of course, this is also the description of a collapsed backbone or centralized cabling network. So, in order to realize cost savings that both Pearson Technologies and the FOLS arm of the TIA claim for FTTD, this topology must be adopted. USB is now becoming wireless. Using a form of Ultra-Wideband technology, consumer products such as laptops, digital camcorders, printers and cell phones for the US market are expected to start having wireless USB in 2006. 6.0 Wireless Large cities such as San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minneapolis have decided to install their own wireless networks using a combination of Wi-Fi mesh and WiMAX backhaul. Now that the WiMAX IEEE standard is finalized, many more US cities are expected to follow suit. Industry analysts are predicting that there will be tenfold growth in the wireless metro market the next five years, mainly attributed to alternative service providers and cities rather than incumbent telecom companies. The Asia Pacific region is expected to become more than 45percent of the market by 2009 and worldwide growth of broadband wireless users is expected to grow about 40-percent annually over the next five years. Penn State researchers recently predicted that whiteLED’s can successfully be used for indoor wireless communications. The university’s scientists simulated that they could use these devices instead of light bulbs, plug them into a standard power outlet and use broadband over power lines to transmit data through them. So, not only can they be used to light the room, but for access to the Internet at the same time. A joint venture between the Center for the Development of Telematics (C-DOT), the Indian government’s telecom technology development center, and Alcatel was recently formed to focus on developing products for broadband wireless. While Wi-Fi was originally intended as a wireless LAN technology, WiMAX is intended as a metro network technology. A recent report from dBrn Associates details the difference between the two and the reasoning why WiMAX, if developed properly, will take over the metro: ™ Was designed for broadband access ™ Can be used in both licensed and unlicensed frequency bands – 2 to 11 GHz ™ Channel bandwidth can be adjusted between 1.25 to 10 MHz ™ Can accommodate both full or half duplex communications ™ The radio technology is more efficient – uses OFDM and up to 256 channels ™ Has superior FEC and encryption 8 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 7.0 Definitions of Acronyms Abbreviation 10-GigE AMR AP APD ASIC ATM AXT BPL CAGR CAT7 CATV CD CEPCA CMOS CWDM DARPA DCF DFB DISA DQPSK DSL DVD DWDM EA-ILM EAM ECOC EDC EFM EM EoDWDM EoMPLS EOS EPG EPON ER ESCON ETSI FBG FC FCC FDDI FEC FEXT FP FTTX GaAs Gbps GHz GIG-BE GigE GI-POF GPON HBA HDTV HFC HPC HSBI IC IEEE IETF IL ILEC InP IP iSCSI ISP IT ITU IXC JBOD km LAN LOA LOMF LR LW MAN Mbps MEF Description 10-Gigabit Ethernet Automatic Meter Reading Access Point Avalanche Photo-Diode Application Specific Integrated Circuit Asynchronous Transfer Mode Alien Crosstalk Broadband Power Line Communications Cumulative Average Growth Rate Category 7 cable Cable Television Chromatic Dispersion Consumer Electronics Communications Alliance Complimentary Metal Oxide Silicon Coarse Wavelength Division Multiplexing Defense Advanced Research Agency Dispersion Compensated Fiber Distributed FeedBack Laser Defense Information Systems Agency Differential Quadrature Phase-shift Keying Digital Subscriber Line Digital Video Diskette, Digital Versatile Disk Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing Electro-Absorptive Integrated Laser Modulator Electro-Absorptive Modulator European Conference on Optical Communication Electronic Dispersion Compensation Ethernet in the First Mile Equipment Manufacturer Ethernet over DWDM Ethernet over MPLS Ethernet Over SONET Electronics Product Group Ethernet Passive Optical Network Extended Reach Enterprise Systems Connectivity European Telecommunications Standards Institute Fiber Bragg Grating Fibre Channel Federal Communications Commission Fiber Distributed Data Interface Forward Error Correction Far-end Crosstalk Fabry- Perot Fiber To The (Home, Desk, Building) Gallium Arsenide Gigabit per second Gigahertz Global Information Grid Bandwidth Expansion Gigabit Ethernet Graded Index Plastic Optical Fiber Gigabit Passive Optical Network Host Bus Adapter High Definition Television Hybrid Fiber Coax High Performance Computing High Speed Backplane Initiative Integrated Circuit Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Internet Engineering Task Force Insertion Loss Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier Indium Phosphide Internet Protocol IP Small Computer System Interface Internet Service Provider Information Technology International Telecommunications Union Inter-exchange Carrier Just a Bunch Of Disks kilometer Local Area Network Linear Optical Amplifier Laser Optimized Multimode Fiber Long Reach Long Wavelength Metropolitan Area Network Megabit per second Metro Ethernet Forum Abbreviation MEMs MIMO MMF MOCVD MOCVD mph MPLS MSA MSO MSPP MUSE MUX/DEMUX NA NE NFOEC NIC NIST nm OADM OC-x OEM OEO OFC OIF OPERA OSA OTDR PBX PC PCI PIC PIN PLC PLC PMD POF PON QoS RAID RBOC RL ROSA RPR SAN SAS SATA SDH SERDES SFF SFP SiGe SIP SMB SMF SOHO SONET SP TDM TIA TIA TOSA ULH UPA UTP VCSEL VLAN VOD VoIP VPN WAN WDM Wi-Fi WiMax WLAN XENPAK XFP 9 Description Micro-Electro-mechanical machines Multiple Input, Multiple Output Multi-mode Fiber Metal-Oxide Chemical Vapor Deposition Metallo-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition Miles Per Hour Multi-Protocol Label Switching Multi-source Agreement Multiple System Operator Multi-service Provisioning Platform Multi-service access Everywhere Multiplexer/Demultiplexer North America Network Element National Fiber Optics Engineering Conference Network Interface Card National Institute of Standards and Technology nanometer Optical Add/Drop Multiplexer Optical Carrier Original Equipment Manufacturer Optical-to-Electrical-to-Optical Optical Fiber Communications Conference Optical Internetworking Forum Open PLC European Research Alliance Optical Sub-assembly Optical Time Domain Refectometer Private Branch Exchange Personal Computer Peripheral Computer Interface Photonic Integrated Circuit p Intrinsic n detector Photonic Lightwave Circuit Power Line Communications Polarization Mode Dispersion Plastic Optical Fiber Passive Optical Network Quality of Service Redundant Array of Independent Disks Regional Bell Operating Company Return Loss Receiver Optical Sub-assembly Resilient Packet Ring Storage Area Network Serial-Attached SCSI Serial Advanced Technology Attachment Synchronous Digital Hierarchy Serializer/Deserializer Small Form Factor Small Form-factor Pluggable Silicon Germanium Session Initiation Protocol Small and Medium size Businesses Single Mode Fiber Small Office Home Office Synchronous Optical Networking Service Provider Time Division Multiplexing Telecommunications Industry Association Transimpedance Amplifier Transmitter Optical Sub-assembly Ultra Long Haul Universal Powerline Association Unshielded Twisted Pair Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser Veirtual Local Area Network Video On Demand Voice over IP Virtual Private Network Wide Area Network Wave Division Multiplexing Wireless Fidelity Wireless Maximum Wireless Local Area Network 10-Gigabit Enhanced Package 10-Gigabit Form factor pluggable module Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005 References: [1]Wilhelm-von-Siemens Strasse, “80+ GBit/s ETDM Systems Implementation: An overview of Current Technologies,” OFC 2006. [2] P.J. Winzer, G. Raybon, and M. Duelk, “107-Gb/s optical ETDM transmitter for 100G Ethernet transport,” ECOC, 2005. [3] Leppla, Schmidt, Le Rouzie, Papernyi, et al, “Field Trials with channel bit rates of 160 Gbit/s,” OFC 2006. [4] P. Matthihsse, R. Freund et al, “Multi-mode Fiber enabling 40 Gbit/s multi-mode Transmission over Distances > 400m,” OFC 2006. Data Communications Competence Center Nexans’ Data Communications Competence Center, located at the Berk-Tek Headquarters in New Holland, Pennsylvania, focuses on advanced product design, applications and materials development for networking and data communication cabling solutions. The Advanced Design and Applications team uses state-of-the-art, proprietary testing and modeling tools to translate emerging network requirements into new cabling solutions. The Advanced Materials Development and Advanced Manufacturing Processes teams utilize sophisticated analytical capabilities that facilitate the design of superior materials and processes. The Standardization and Technology group analyzes leading edge and emerging technologies and coordinates data communication standardization efforts to continuously refine Nexans’ Technology Roadmap. An international team of experts in the fields of cable, connectors, materials, networking, standards, communications and testing supports the competence center. The competence center laboratories are a part of an extensive global R&D network that includes nine competence centers and the Nexans Research Center headquartered in Lyon, France. 132 White Oak Road, New Holland, PA 17557 - USA Tel: 717-354-6200 - Fax: 717-354-7944 - www.nexans.com 10 Technology/Market Watch - DCCC05062301 – June 2005