Transitions To Democracy. What Theory To Grasp Complexities?

Transcript

LUISS Guido Carli Dipartimento di Scienze politiche Transitions to Democracy. What Theory to Grasp Complexities? Leonardo Morlino Working Paper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eonardo Morlino (chair)% Paolo Boccardelli Matteo Caroli Giovanni Fiori Daniele Gallo Nicola Lupo Stefano Manzocchi Giuseppe Melis Marcello Messori Gianfranco Pellegrino Giovanni Piccirilli Arlo Poletti Andrea Prencipe Pietro Reichlin% % !"#$%&!&'$%(!'()*+',"#,-.( /0#!(!0*'"-(!'(1"#%2(,'+23*4&!&*%5( ( 36789:;7(+7:<=87>?( ! ! 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J7889P:! +3>! .#/,01'*)0$ 0,27,()9'*),2$ )2$ :'7*#12$ :&1,;#A$ 7<1-->! JG=61&3B! G=61&3! N,/<+&$/%.!L&+$$P>! ! 27 !""#$"#%&! 1 Of course, the precise calculus is slightly more complex than a simple subtraction because the 45 cases are not exactly the same over the forty years. But the cases that change are very few, and the basis of data makes reference to those successful cases that are democracies in 2014 and were not in 1974. See www.freedomhouse.org, and for details see also Morlino (2012). 2 In this paper I am developing a few reflections I started in Morlino (2012, ch. 4). 3 About the minimalist definition of democracy “a regime should be considered democratic if it has at least the following: a) universal male and female suffrage; b) free, competitive, periodic and fair elections; c) more than one political party; d) different and alternative sources of information.” (Morlino 2012, 32). 4 For an analysis of the sensitive definition of democracy discussed by Whitehead (2002: ch. 1), see Morlino (2012, ch. 3). 5 The first four chapters of the book by Gill (2000: 1–123) are also a good, balanced review of the literature, especially on transition to democracy. 6 When we also consider a very well-written book like the one by Larry Diamond (2008) or the exhaustive textbook edited by Haerpfer et al. (2009) or other good textbooks (e.g. Grugel 2002; Ciprut 2008; Sørensen 2008), we realize how rich the field has become in terms of research carried out and how high the level of interest is for a lot of people, including university students. The methodological and theoretical conclusions expressed in the text remain the same. 7 See again Morlino (2012 ch. 4) for additional details. 8 For an additional analysis of this matter, see Morlino (2000). 9 They are so well known that there is no reason to discuss here phenomena such as the oil crisis with all its consequences, the end of the Cold War, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the change of the capitalist economy and different markets, and the reshaping of the middle classes. 10 Liberalization is defined as: “ the entire set of events that take place in, and usually characterize, transition and involves the concession, from above, of some degree of political and civil rights, which are never very broad or complete, but enable the controlled organization of civil society at an elite and mass level.” (Morlino, 2012, 85). 11 On this see also above the reference made by Bunce (2000). 12 See also Morlino (2012, ch. 1, first section). 13 Although actors have often been a dominant focus in the analysis and reality of transitions, Doorenspleet (2004) shows the salience of structural context in several transitions. 14 On this issue, O’Donnell (1996) sees this flaw in the notion of democratic consolidation itself. 15 Learning is defined by Bermeo (1992: 274) as ‘the process through which people modify their political beliefs and tactics as a result of severe crises, frustrations, and dramatic changes in environment’. See also Pridham (2000: esp. 53–7). 16 It is particularly telling what Perez Diaz (1993) recalls in terms of building a memory of the past, that it can be largely manipulated if not artificial, as this makes clear that the mechanism we are discussing is actually very difficult to grasp empirically. 17 As happened in Egypt. 18 Stoner and McFaul devoted to this question four chapters on Algeria, Iran, China, and Azerbaijan. They are also two very distinguished experts of Russia, but curiously put this country, which is a well established electoral authoritarianism in 2014, among the successful cases of transition, only considering the collapse of 1991 and the transitional phase of 1993. 19 In the cases they analyze the presence of oil altered the willingness of international actors to promote democracy (see Stoner, Diamond, Girod, McFaul, 2013, section on external influences). 28