Transcript
TTS GROUP ASA
Q4 Results 2014
Oslo, 12 February 2015 Björn Andersson, CEO Henrik Solberg-Johansen, CFO
Agenda • • • • • •
4th quarter headlines 4th quarter consolidated accounts Roll out strategy 2015-2017 Financial goals 2015-2016 Summary Appendix
2
TTS Group ASA 4th quarter 2014 – key figures
Turnover 4Q MNOK 734 – up from MNOK 638 last year
EBITDA 4Q of MNOK 142 includes one time effects from change in pension plan in the Norwegian companies amounting to MNOK 106
Order intake 4Q MNOK 498 excl. JVs. JV order intake 4Q MNOK 656 (100%)*
Order backlog 4Q 2014 MNOK 4 813, incl. 100% of JVs
(*)TTS holds 50% of the JVs
3
800
TTS Group ASA
Turnover
750 700 650
Turnover and EBITDA development
600 734
550
638
500 450 400 Q4 2014
Q4 2013
EBITDA 60,0
10 %
40,0
5%
20,0 0,0 -20,0
0% Act Q2 2012
Act Q3 2012
Act Q4 2012
Act Q1 2013
Act Q2 2013
Act Q3 2013
Act Q4 2013
Act Q1 2014
Act Q2 2014
Act Q3 2014
Act Q4 2014
-40,0 -60,0
-5 % -10 %
-80,0
-15 %
-100,0 -120,0
-20 %
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Note: - Restated 2012 due to changes in IAS 19, recognition of actuarial gain/loss on pension liabilities - EBITDA Q4 2014 of MNOK 36 is excluding pension effect of MNOK 101
4
TTS Group ASA Order intake and order backlog 1 400
1,80
1,60
1 200
Order intake per quarter 2013-2014 including 100 % of JVs
1,40 1 000
1,00
600
0,80
MNOK
800
Book to bill
1,20
Book to bill = Order intake / Revenues
0,60
400 0,40 200
0,20
0
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Order intake (ex JV)
Order backlog per 31.12.2014 is MNOK 4 813 including 100 % of JVs Divided per year of delivery;
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Order intake JV (100 %)
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Book to bill (incl 100 % JV)
4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 2015
2016 Group ex JVs
JV 100 %
2017+
5
Agenda • •
4th quarter headlines 4th quarter consolidated accounts
6
TTS Group ASA Profit and loss statement 4th quarter 2014 2013
MNOK
Year 2014
2013
Turnover
734
638
2 454
2 693
EBITDA *)
142
-110
105
-130
Operating profit *)
128
-121
61
-164
-7
-22
-38
-37
121
-142
23
-201
Net result continued business *)
89
-154
-22
-227
Net result incl discontinued business *)
89
-154
18
-204
Net financial items *) Profit/loss before tax *)
*)
- 2014 figures include one time effects related to the change in pension plan in Norwegian companies. Effect amounts to MNOK 106 in Q4 and MNOK 101 for the year.
7
TTS Group ASA Balance Sheet MNOK
31.12.2014
31.12.2013
Non-current assets Current assets TOTAL ASSETS
927 1 377 2 304
942 1 282 2 225
Equity Gross interest bearing liabilities Other liabilities and provisions TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
610 385 1 309 2 304
567 233 1 426 2 225
Net interest bearing debt / Covenants At 31 December 2014 TTS has renegotiated covenants with the banks (ref note 14) o o
Equity > 20% (nominal bond debt included in EQ) EBITDA covenants
(MNOK) EBITDA covenant accumulated
Q4-14 ≥ 31
Q1-15 ≥ 31
Q2-15 ≥ 53
Q3-15 ≥ 80
Net interest bearing debt decreased to MNOK 262. Total cash reserve is MNOK 308 as per 31.12.2014 Equity ratio inclusive subordinated convertible bond is 30.6 % at year end 2014
8
TTS Group ASA Cash flow / Working capital / Interest bearing debt Cash flow MNOK Net cash flow from operations
Q4 Q4 YTD YTD 2014 2013 2014 2013 76
112 -150 -138
MNOK Short term interest b. debt
297
273
295
187
50
1
1
1
103
103
95
95
95
95
95
Total
393
369
391
385
248
Cash
131
88
88
117
156
NIBD (**)
262
281
303
268
92
Net cash flow from investments
-14
-12
27
14
Long term int. bearing debt
Net cash flow from financial activities
-31
-19 101
-3
Convertible Bond(*)
Net change in cash
32
Cash and bank deposits at the start of the period
82
-21 -127 156
228
-4
55
131
156
Effect of exchange rate changes in bank/cash Cash and bank deposits at the end of the period
Cash flow from operations MNOK -150, mainly from increased working capital offshore projects
Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13
(*) Convertible loan included at nominal value (**) Negative indicates net asset position
Net working capital
Minor changes in working capital during Q4.
9
RoRo / Cruise / Navy Cargo handling solutions for car carriers, cruise ships and specialized vessels as well as port handling equipment.
MNOK Turnover EBITDA Order backlog
Q4 periodic 2014 2013 157 149 25 11 854 762
Full Year 2014 2013 599 562 77 53 854 762
Improved turnover and profit for the business unit
Market for RoRo, particularly PCTC, is positive
Competition is fierce and prices are low in the port segment
Cruise business is developing, with new contracts signed in 4Q
The Naval segment is promising, with new resources and higher sales activities
10
Container / Bulk / Tank Cargo handling solutions for container ships, tankers and bulk carriers; including winches, cranes and hatch covers.
MNOK Turnover EBITDA Order backlog *)
Q4 periodic 2014 2013 105 167 -7 -52 1 687 1 056
Full Year 2014 2013 422 535 -5 -71 1 687 1 056
*) Includes 50 % of JVs
Profit from JV companies MNOK 3.6 in Q4 and MNOK 14.3 YTD
Order backlog driven by strong market positions for the JVs in China
The outlook is neutral
Business unit head-quarter moving closer to the market. Transfer from Germany to South Korea ongoing, reducing future operating cost
11
Multipurpose / General Cargo Heavy lift cranes, mooring winches, hatch covers and side loading systems for multipurpose vessels and cargo ships.
MNOK Turnover EBITDA Order backlog
Q4 periodic 2014 2013 47 8 -1 -13 562 307
Full Year 2014 2013 138 374 -32 -35 562 307
New contracts give basis for increased productivity in Q4. Volumes from new contracts balance activity with operational cost base
Several new contracts in 2014 give basis for increased turnover in 2015
Increased activity in Chinese shipyards - several projects are tendering heavy lift cranes
Improved order backlog combined with cost cutting measures, basis for improved EBITDA margins
Established new JV in China with South China Marine Machinery Ltd (subsidiary of CSSC) 12
Shipyard Solutions Production lines and systems for cargo handling to shipyards, focusing on transfer systems for docking and launching.
MNOK Turnover EBITDA Order backlog
Q4 periodic 2014 2013 53 58 27 9 271 308
Full Year 2014 2013 192 168 32 18 271 308
EBITDA for the quarter includes one-off pension effect of MNOK 20. EBITDA excl. pension is MNOK 7.5 for the quarter and MNOK 14.9 for the year
Stable activity in the quarter. Several interesting projects may develop in 2015
TTS with a strong position in the ship lift market. Signs of improvement in market for translifter systems
13
Offshore Cranes for offshore vessels and offshore installations.
MNOK Turnover EBITDA Order backlog
Q4 periodic 2014 2013 210 143 33 -75 254 539
Full Year 2014 2013 572 608 -50 -114 254 539
EBITDA for the quarter includes STX settlement of MNOK 23 and one-off pension adjustment of MNOK 37. EBITDA excl. one-off effects is MNOK 27 for the quarter, and MNOK -110 for the year
Cost reduction efforts implemented. Due to long lead time for projects → effect expected gradually during 2015
Decrease in order backlog, STX cancellation and order intake significantly lower than 2013
Positive user feedback on product performance and reliability
14
Services Complete services within maintenance, including spare parts, interval agreements and life time service.
MNOK Turnover EBITDA
Q4 periodic 2014 2013 162 113 64 18
Full Year 2014 2013 530 446 96 43
High activity in the quarter, 43 % up from last year, and stabile margin
EBITDA for the quarter includes one-off pension effect of MNOK 40. EBITDA excl. pension is MNOK 24 for the quarter and MNOK 59 for the year
Structural capacity in the segment provides basis for increased turnover, and improvement to the overall profit margin. However, the service market remains influenced by low ship charter rates in some segments
15
TTS Group ASA 10 largest shareholders at February 11th 2015: Rasmussengruppen AS
13.29%
Skeie Technology AS
10.31%
Lesk AS
6.13%
Stisk AS
6.13%
Skeie Capital Investment AS
4.85%
Barrus Capital AS
4.00%
Skandinaviska Enskilda
3.70%
Skagen Vekst
3.53%
Holberg Norge Verdipapirfondet
2.50%
Tamafe Holding AS
2.49%
Total
56.93%
Skeie Technology AS, Skeie Capital Investment AS and members of the Skeie family own in total 32,0 %. 16
Agenda • • •
4th quarter headlines 4th quarter consolidated accounts Roll out strategy 2015-2017
17
Our long-term goal
Building a global BNOK 6 System and Service provider company in the maritime and offshore industry within 2020
Grow by internal efficiency and capture market share Add peripheral products to complement Product costs on par with the market Key accounts to support customer relationships Major focus to penetrate our installed base and third party equipment
18
Overall vision for TTS Group Vision
The global supplier of handling systems to the maritime and offshore industry with the strongest focus on end user satisfaction System & Technology competence
Values that drive us
Reliability & Customer satisfaction
Health Safety & The Environment
A preferred global supplier means:
Strategy
Be on the makers list and get market share > 30 % in each market segment where we are positioned Product technology among the top 3 in each segment where we compete Customer oriented solution that support the life cycle of the vessel from new design to recycling. Wider product offerings to support package sales and reduce sales costs Profitability on par with industry average
19
TTS launched its new Global strategy in 2014 Roll out version for 2015-2017 1
Continue to build on the solid position in China
2
3
• • •
Focus on ship type – more integrated package sales
• •
Enhanced service offering through strategic hubs
•
•
• •
•
4
Focus on profitability
• •
The leading position in China provides shipping market access. China with ~40% of total shipping order book, Korea at ~30% TTS aims to continue to leverage its strong market and cost position in China and Far-East, and grow into Korea Increase the scope of manufacturing co-operation in China
Currently delivering single products to a high number of vessels TTS aims to move from product focus to ship type focus, and provide more value per sale, through bundling of products and systems. Move closer to the end user -> Key Account ownership across TTS
Focus on major clusters of customer bases and create relationship for services on a ship´s lifetime Increase ability to serve the customer on the spot and in a timely manner Develop service entities with technical and design knowledge for all TTS products TTS aims to reach operating income margins on par with industry average over a business cycle Marine business units delivering decent margins. Further improvement expected in 2015 to reach average industry margins in 2017 Offshore business unit currently underperforming. Work started in 2014 to turn this around and capture a fair share of the market 20
Leveraging TTS’ current strong market position
•
Unique position in China ‒
‒ ‒ ‒
•
Strong product portfolio and position in core market segments ‒ ‒ ‒
•
‒
•
Solid global brand image to be built upon Growing markets in many segments Untapped sales potential on package sales per ship
Growth platform established – BNOK 4.8 in Order backlog in 2014 including JVs ‒
> 50% market share for hatch covers and hose handling cranes, growing market share for winches and cargo cranes Close to BNOK 1 JV revenues in 2014 Strong manufacturing platform All time high order intake in 2014
Order books across all divisions are growing Organization restructured from product structure to ship type structure Service footprint expanded by strategic hubs
Dedicated employees and a good working culture 21
Exploring new strategic opportunities to further strengthen the business •
TTS has built a strong product portfolio and market position in core shipping markets
•
TTS believe “package sale” will be a key growth driver going forward – –
•
TTS Group has a strategy to fill the gaps in its product portfolio and to grow its client offering, in order to deliver more package sale –
•
This will position TTS for higher order value per ship, and enable TTS to increase its market position in our core markets, i.e. China and Korea.
In order to position the TTS Group for such growth the Board of Directors of TTS Group has decided to run a strategic process to look for one or more partners to achieve and deliver on its new strategy and continue the impressive record of accomplishment within ship equipment going forward –
•
Our organization reformed from product type to ship type structure Increased integration and automation of control systems on a ship in order to reduce on/off loading time is a focus area for ship owners
The Board of Directors of TTS Group has retained Pareto Securities AS as the financial advisor to assist in the strategic process
Please see press release dated 12 February 2015 for more information 22
Our journey to continued revenue growth, increased profitability and improved cash flow Revenue improving actions
• • •
Continue to build on the solid position in China Launch ship-type organisation with global service Use high market share segments to launch package sales and complement with peripheral products
Cost reducing actions
• • •
Product benchmarking to reach top of the range performance Technical standardization and group sourcing across business units Incorporate a flat organization structure and new business processes in Offshore and Container, Bulk & Tank
Risk reduction actions
• • •
Focus on core products in well defined segments Implement group bid reviews and authorization matrix Best in class work processes across business units
Working capital & capex reduction actions
• • • •
Cash flow actions > adjustment of working capital days Simplification of work process 2015 capex budget significantly reduced No dividend plans
23
TTS has a strong position in the biggest global shipbuilding market China and Korea account for ~70% of global shipbuilding
% of global shipbuilding backlog (CGT)
TTS China market share
Hatch covers
Strategy
•
Uniquely positioned to capitalize on China partnerships and through BU presence in Korea
•
A new Chinese JV is established for Multipurpose & General Cargo
•
Increased operational focus on Chinese JVs
90% 80%
65% 70% 60%
Hose handling cranes
50% 40%
55% 30% 20%
Cargo cranes
10%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0%
China
Korea
22%
Japan
Source: Clarkson Research Services 24
Restructuring from product to ship-type focus Current TTS product portfolio Product expansion opportunities
RoRo/Cruise/Navy
Container/Bulk/ Tank
Multipurpose/ General Cargo
Shipyard Solutions
Services
Offshore
Turnover: MNOK 599 EBITDA: MNOK 77
Turnover: MNOK 422 EBITDA: MNOK -5 *)
Turnover: MNOK 138 EBITDA: MNOK -32
Turnover: MNOK 192 EBITDA: MNOK 32
Turnover: MNOK 530 EBITDA: MNOK 96
Turnover: MNOK 572 EBITDA: MNOK -50
Heavy lift cranes, mooring winches, hatch covers and side loading systems for - Multipurpose vessels - Cargo ships
Production lines and systems for - Shipyards cargo handling - Transfer systems for docking and launching.
Cargo handling solutions for - Car carriers - Cruise ships - Specialized vessels Port handling equipment RORO product dev. Cruise (davits, tenders, gangways, winches, new innovations) Navy (hangar doors, turntables, cranes, hatch covers)
Cargo handling solutions incl. winches, cranes and hatch covers for - Container ships - Bulk carriers - Tankers Cargo control systems Lashing bridges Lashing gears
E-cranes Increased leg encircling crane portfolio Cargo control systems
Green scrapping
Complete services within - maintenance, - spare parts - interval agreements - life time services Increased # spare parts hubs Increased # servicing hubs
Offshore cranes for - offshore vessels - offshore installations Increased AHC crane size range ROV handling systems Skidding systems
Change from product focus to ship type focus • • • •
Key account – 20% of ship owners owns 80% of the global fleet One face to the market More value per sale, packaged deliveries Broader service offering per ship type -> Leading to TTS as total service provider
Product platform to support life time services -> TTS a total Service provider *) Includes 50 % of net profit after tax in the JVs
25
Container ship example - Increased value per vessel From single product supplier to package solutions Lashing bridges
Lashing gear Not current TTS product
Not current TTS product
Hatch covers
Training and instructions
Winches
Services
TTS goal: Complete package solution
26
Increase service revenues through increased presence at strategic hot spot hubs Competitive advantage through “on-the-spot” presence where TTS equipment is sailing • Increase ability to serve the customer on the spot and in a timely manner
• Service entities with technical and design knowledge for all TTS products • Hub advantages: ‒ Customer accounts (sales) ‒ Service capability on all TTS products ‒ Stock of critical parts – Workshop ‒ Technical knowledge (design)
• Hub development areas: ‒ ‒ ‒ ‒ ‒ ‒
Bremerhaven Houston Brazil Singapore Dubai (to be developed) Antwerp (to be developed) 27
TTS is already on the vessel – ambition to increase value per contract TTS global market share
TTS has a potential to double sales per vessel Illustration – MNOK sales per containership
RoRo Equipment
40%
10 Heavy Load Cranes
1,5
0,5
31
Lifecycle services
Total ship equipment delivery
30%
4 15 Hatch Covers
Deck Winches
25%
20%
TTS current sales per ship
Product example
Cargo & Service Cranes
30%
Hatchcovers
Potential package sales
Winches
Potential new Recurring TTS products equipment deliveries
Lashing bridges
Lashing gears
Service
28
TTS revenue growth potential Potential for growth towards 2020, goal of BNOK 6 turnover BNOK 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2014 revenue Growth in current Package sales product sales gain
New products
Growth in lifecycle services
2020 revenue potential
29
Our journey to continued revenue growth, increased profitability and improved cash flow Revenue improving actions
• • •
Continue to build on the solid position in China Launch ship-type organisation with global service Use high market share segments to launch package sales and complement with peripheral products
Cost reducing actions
• • •
Product benchmarking to reach top of the range performance Technical standardization and group sourcing across business units Incorporate a flat organization structure and new business processes in Offshore and Container, Bulk & Tank
Risk reduction actions
• • •
Focus on core products in well defined segments Implement group bid reviews and authorization matrix Best in class work processes across business units
Working capital & capex reduction actions
• • • •
Cash flow actions > adjustment of working capital days Simplification of work process 2015 capex budget significantly reduced No dividend plans
30
Operational Excellence & Synergies Phase 1 (2013)
Phase 2 (2014)
Organizational adjustments and merging units
Product development started in all divisions.
Cost savings operational cost ~ MNOK 70 + sourcing cost ~MNOK 60
substantial lower sourcing costs
Closing gaps /product development
market shares to increase Ship-type focus Increase product leverage per ship
Profitability through cost efficiencies
Key account structure implemented
Corporate driven controller structure implemented. Momentum cost reduction projects
Downsizing in Offshore and Multipurpose General Cargo finalized and new work process implemented
Customer driven growth
Enhance market focus
Focus on efficient operation/process
Integration of Container/Bulk/Tank business unit initiated.
Phase 3 (2015)
reinforced competitive position
Lean and mean business
substantial better focus on segments where higher productivity are achieved
In 2014 MNOK 130 were released in operation & sourcing costs In 2015 we will eliminate another MNOK 100
Breakdown of operating cost reductions •
• •
• •
•
The divisional layer is removed -> a flat Business Unit structure reporting directly to CEO Business processes across legal entities One company structure avoiding duplicate functions and administration Sourcing and standardisation across the business units In total ~MNOK 70 annual cost reduction achieved in 2014 Further ~MNOK 35 annual cost reduction initiated in 2015
Headcount reductions
Annual cost savings initiated
123
105
90
80
27
20
6
5
Employees
NOKm
Offshore Container, Bulk & Tank RoRo, Cruise and Navy
32
Our journey to continued revenue growth, increased profitability and improved cash flow Revenue improving actions
• • •
Continue to build on the solid position in China Launch ship-type organisation with global service Use high market share segments to launch package sales and complement with peripheral products
Cost reducing actions
• • •
Product benchmarking to reach top of the range performance Technical standardization and group sourcing across business units Incorporate a flat organization structure and new business processes in Offshore and Container, Bulk & Tank
Risk reduction actions
• • •
Focus on core products in well defined segments Implement group bid reviews and authorization matrix Best in class work processes across business units
Working capital & capex reduction actions
• • • •
Cash flow actions > adjustment of working capital days Simplification of work process 2015 capex budget significantly reduced No dividend plans
33
Risk reduction actions and events Finalization of loss projects Avoiding new high product risk contracts and poor commercial contracts New bid reviews processes are implemented, both CEO and the Board involved on lower bid size than previously TTS best in class work processes introduced in Offshore
New BU leader for Offshore with experience from project management and the offshore industry 34
Our journey to continued revenue growth, increased profitability and improved cash flow Revenue improving actions
• • •
Continue to build on the solid position in China Launch ship-type organisation with global service Use high market share segments to launch package sales and complement with peripheral products
Cost reducing actions
• • •
Product benchmarking to reach top of the range performance Technical standardization and group sourcing across business units Incorporate a flat organization structure and new business processes in Offshore and Container, Bulk & Tank
Risk reduction actions
• • •
Focus on core products in well defined segments Implement group bid reviews and authorization matrix Best in class work processes across business units
Working capital & capex reduction actions
• • • •
Cash flow actions > adjustment of working capital days Simplification of work process 2015 capex budget significantly reduced No dividend plans
35
Cash flow optimization Group wide project to reduce working capital started in 2Q 2014 – – –
Focus on improving outstanding days for receivables and payables, as well as inventory optimization Average AR shorter and AP longer, saving a total of MNOK 113 from 2Q to 4Q Project continues in 2015, lead by dedicated senior finance manager
Bid process focused on moving new contracts towards more cash neutral cost/revenue streams
Dedicated follow up of large milestone payments from group cash manager with focused accountability by project managers 2015 capex budget significantly reduced
No dividend plans
36
Agenda • • • •
4th quarter headlines 4th quarter consolidated accounts Roll out strategy 2015-2017 Financial goals 2015-2016
37
TTS is on track to improve profitability • Revenues for TTS Group excluding Offshore expected to grow to BNOK 2.1-2.3 in 2015 • EBITDA margins for TTS Group excluded Offshore expected to improve to approximately 6%
• TTS also expect a modest growth in revenues for the Group excluding Offshore into 2016 with margins approaching industry average levels • Offshore excluded as it is currently exposed to a weaker market sentiment, and has a different risk profile compared to the other parts of the Group
38
2015 EBITDA expectations in line with historical margins Revenues excluding Drilling Equipment, Offshore and JVs (MNOK)
EBITDA margin
3 000
10,0%
9,0% 2 500 8,0%
7,0% 2 000
Avg. margin ~6% 6,0%
1 500
5,0%
4,0% 1 000 3,0%
2,0% 500 1,0%
--
-2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: Illustrative graph based on historical reported segment figures
2012
2013
2014
39
Agenda • • • • •
4th quarter headlines 4th quarter consolidated accounts Roll out strategy 2015-2017 Financial goals 2015-2016 Summary
40
Summary
Positive quarter and full year EBITDA Positive 4Q EBITDA for the second quarter after four negative previous quarters Positive 2014 full year EBITDA
Improvement processes on track We have a road map for the improvement processes going forward in 2015 that has not changed. Up to now we have:
Positive view on significant market segments The marine market remains good
Finalized the cost cutting programs in MPGC, CBT and Offshore (Offshore to continue pending market development in 2015) Value chain development in several product segments (sourcing, product development, sales)
Contracting of new vessels, especially bulkers continues to be on acceptable level Car carriers continue with several repeats Container ships grow, especially feeder-size and 16 000-20 000 TEU Multipurpose/General cargo have improved from Q2
Offshore market under pressure
TTS exploring new strategic opportunities to further strengthen the business Please see press release dated 12 February 2015 for more information 41
Agenda • • • • • •
4th quarter headlines 4th quarter consolidated accounts Roll out strategy 2015-2017 Financial goals 2015-2016 Summary Appendix
42
Market Outlook
World seaborne trade growth
Global GDP growth
World seaborne trade growth
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
- 6,0% 1999
- 6,0%
1997
- 4,0%
1995
- 4,0%
2017
- 2,0%
2015
- 2,0%
2013
--
2011
--
2009
2,0%
2007
2,0%
2005
4,0%
2003
4,0%
2001
6,0%
1999
6,0%
1997
8,0%
1995
8,0%
1993
10,0%
1991
10,0%
1993
Growth in world seaborne trade vs fleet size
1991
Growth in world seaborne trade vs GDP
Fleet growth *
Except for periods with financial turbulence, GDP and Fleet growth are exceeding 2 % p.a. and reached an average of 4 % p.a. Source: Clarkson Research Services * Including Tankers (10k DWT+), bulk carriers and container ships
43
Market Outlook Growth scenario impacted by: •
Bunker price
•
Financial credits availability
•
Historic low newbuilding price
•
Low inflation
•
Low interests on credit lines
•
GDP growth worldwide
•
Limited risks on financial crisis
We expect 2-3 years of good growth in the Marine industry, while Offshore will need 2-3 years of adjustments
Source: Clarkson Research Services, September 2014 44
Market Outlook Global fleet size development (# of vessels) 100 000 90 000 80 000 70 000
60 000 20 784
21 327
22 039
22 931
23 873
50 000 40 000 30 000
5 939 1 911
18 721
20 000 3 210
10 000
6 071 1 902
18 831
3 384
6 153 1 922
19 167
6 194 1 972
19 478
6 258 2 015
19 874
25 071
26 506
28 925
29 974
30 903
6 396
6 415
6 428
6 395 2 007
2 045
2 049
2 033
20 742
20 600
20 544
20 735
27 842
6 326
6 389
2 072
2 013
20 366
20 603
5 076
5 080
4 963
5 083
4 797
3 649
3 999
4 375
4 737
7 399
8 298
9 671
10 023
7 054
9 084
6 748
5 690
5 928
6 194
6 452
9 697
9 911
10 232
10 598
11 049
11 629
12 202
12 509
12 824
13 101
13 347
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0 Tankers
Bulk carriers
Container
General cargo/reefer/MPP
Car carriers/RoRo/PCC
Passanger & Cruise
Other
Source: Clarkson Research Services 45
Market Outlook Orderbook by ship type Orderbook per YE'14 (m. DWT) 120
% of fleet 50% 45%
169.7 100
40% 35%
80
68,7
30%
60
25% 20%
38
40
15%
10%
20
12,7 5,4
7,3 0,9
1,7
0
0,5
0,6
1,3
0
1,8
5% 0,1 Other cargo
Offshore (AHTS/PSV
Reefers
Car Carriers
Ro-Ro
General Cargo
Multi-purpose
Containerships
LNG
LPG
Combos
Bulkers
Other tankers
Chemical tankers
0% Oil tankers
0
Source: Clarkson Research Services 46
Market Outlook Newbuild contracting by region (# of vessels) 6 000
100,0% 90,0%
5 000 80,0% 70,0% 4 000 60,0% 3 000
50,0% 40,0%
2 000 30,0% 20,0% 1 000
10,0% --
-2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Asia
2006 Europe
2007
2008 RoW
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Asia share (%)
Source: Clarkson Research Services 47
Market Outlook RoRo and PCC orderbook development (# of vessels) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 RoRo
Pure Car Carrier
Source: Clarkson Research Services 48
Market Outlook Newbuild prices (USDm) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
VLCC
1994
1996
Aframax
1998
2000
Capesize
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Panamax
Source: Clarkson Research Services 49
Market Outlook OSV fleet development; deliveries (#) 400 350 300 250 200 150
100 50 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
PSV
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
AHTS
Subsea vessel fleet development; deliveries (#)
Order book
35 30 25
20 15 10 5 0 2000
2001
2002
Pipelay
2003
2004
2005
ROV Support
2006
2007
2008
2009
Diving Support
2010
2011
2012
Well Intervention
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Other
Source: IHS 50
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